Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Valparaiso, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday April 25, 2019 6:52 PM CDT (23:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:39AMMoonset 11:09AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 522 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
.tornado watch 103 in effect until 8 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..South winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and seas much higher near showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 522 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis..A moderate to strong onshore flow will continue across the marine area tonight, gradually subsiding after midnight. Some strong to severe storms will be possible near shore early this evening, but convection storms are expected to move on off to the east of our marine area late this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest and decrease somewhat behind the line of storms as a cold front moves east across the coastal waters. A light to moderate offshore flow is then expected to continue Friday through Saturday, before becoming more east and southeasterly Sunday trough the early part of next week as surface high pressure builds east across the marine area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valparaiso, FL
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location: 30.49, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 252232
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
532 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2019

Discussion Updated for latest marine discussion below.

Marine Currently have a well defined book-end vortex currently
moving east across the gulf just offshore of the alabama coast
south of the mouth of mobile bay. Kmob velocity data is indicating
winds up to as high as 74 knots just below 3000 feet. Special
marine warnings are in effect for much of our marine area, where
localized wind gusts above 50 knots and very rough seas are
expected. 12 ds

Prev discussion issued 358 pm cdt Thu apr 25 2019
near term now through Friday ... As of 315 pm this afternoon, a
convective outflow boundary extends from butler county southwest
generally along i-65 down to mobile county. A weakly defined warm
front appears to extend inland across the western fl panhandle and
intersects the outflow boundary somewhere in the vicinity of conecuh
county (where remnants of earlier strong convection has flared up
once again). At this time most of that inland convection is expected
to continue over our eastern interior zones into early evening,
generally remaining strong but sub-severe (although an isolated
severe storm could be possible). Further south toward the coast in
the areas bounded by by old outflow boundary to the west and the
warm front to the east (generally mobile, baldwin, escambia fl,
santa rosa and okaloosa counties) we still have a severe threat this
evening, and a tornado watch continues until 8 pm cdt. Cooling cloud
tops associated with intensifying convection over the offshore ms
coastal waters that hires models indicate will move east-northeast
across our coastal counties early this evening and generally moving
east of our area by late evening. This stronger convection will be
coincident with the strong 30 to 40 knot low level jet and the
better instabilities with mlcapes continuing to approach 1500 j kg
in this area. Some severe storms with damaging wind gusts and or a
brief tornado possible. Could see some lingering showers over the
eastern half of our forecast area overnight into the predawn hours
Friday, but all precipitation is expected to have moved east of our
area after daybreak on Friday with no rain expected for the
remainder of the day. Lows tonight in the upper 50s over
northwestern counties to lower 60s elsewhere. Highs on Friday will
be ranging from the mid upper 70s to the lower 80s. 12 ds
short term Friday night through Sunday night ... Weak upper
ridging builds into the eastern CONUS in the wake of today's
shortwave trough, bringing quieter weather and clearer skies to
the local area this weekend. A weak impulse passes by to our
north on Sunday and brings another front south into central and
northern al ms, where it should stall well north of the local
area. No precip is expected in our area with this front due to a
lack of moisture and forcing, though areas well inland may see
some additional cloudiness on Sunday. Plenty of daytime heating
beneath mostly clear skies will support high temps in the upper
70s and low 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Dry air and efficient
radiative cooling help overnight lows dip into the upper 40s
inland and low 50s along the coast Friday night, then low to mid
50s everywhere Saturday and Sunday nights. 49
long term Monday through Thursday ... Upper ridging amplifies
over the eastern CONUS as we head into early next week, leading to
stronger subsidence and a continuation of warm and sunny weather
for the local area. No rain chances in the forecast until late
next week. High temps reach the low to mid 80s along the coast and
mid to upper 80s inland each afternoon through the long term. High
surface pressure over the eastern gulf maintains a light southerly
wind through the period, which helps gradually bring gulf moisture
back into the area. As a result, overnight lows see a slow warming
trend, ranging from upper 50s Monday night to mid 60s by the end
of the week. 49
marine... A moderate to strong onshore flow will continue across the
marine area tonight, gradually subsiding after midnight. A small
craft advisory continues for the gulf waters, ms sound and southern
mobile bay until 1 am, with scec elsewhere. Some strong to severe
storms will be possible near shore early this evening, but
convection is expected to move on off to the east of our marine area
late this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest and decrease
somewhat behind the line of storms as a cold front moves east across
the coastal waters. A light to moderate offshore flow is then
expected to continue Friday through Saturday, before becoming more
east and southeasterly Sunday trough the early part of next week as
surface high pressure builds east across the marine area. 12 ds

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Friday morning for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Friday morning for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Friday for gmz631-632-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi41 min SE 13 G 15 71°F 72°F1011.6 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 39 mi35 min S 7 G 8.9 71°F 71°F1011.5 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 49 mi35 min SE 8.9 G 12 73°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 64 mi33 min 31 G 49 1007.7 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL3 mi57 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1011.8 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi60 minESE 710.00 miFair71°F68°F90%1010.8 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL11 mi1.9 hrsSSE 1110.00 miOvercast72°F67°F86%1010.3 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL21 mi60 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F66°F87%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE3CalmE6E4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE10SE14SE15
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1 day agoSW5SW4--CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3CalmCalmNW3CalmN4E4E3S3S3S5S5SE9SE7----
2 days agoW7W4NW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N4N5CalmSE4S7S9S10S12S10S7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:38 AM CDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:14 PM CDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.50.50.60.60.60.60.50.50.40.30.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:09 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:18 PM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.30.50.70.91.11.31.41.51.51.41.31.110.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.