Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 4:48 AM   Moonset 6:08 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 825 Pm Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Saturday - North winds around 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 825 Pm Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis - An onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with wind speeds slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 070028 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 727 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will continue tonight before some MVFR ceilings may develop overnight across the area. Winds will remain light and variable. VFR conditions will return tomorrow with light southerly winds. BB/03

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Summer-like weather will continue through Tuesday as shortwave upper level ridging builds across the area. At the sfc, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain a moist southerly flow. Tuesday will likely be very similar to today with isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms mainly northwest of I-65 during the afternoon and early evening. Outside of isolated to scattered convection, it will remain warm with highs on Tuesday in the upper 80s to around 90 inland to low to mid 80s along the coast. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf will build further north on Wednesday and the associated subsidence will keep conditions dry and warm through the day. High temperatures are expected to be the warmest of the year so far with values rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s inland with middle 80s along the immediate coast. It will feel even warmer given the humid conditions in place with heat index values climbing into the middle and upper 90s for most locations Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be rather mild with temperatures falling only into the lower and middle 70s Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

We begin to transition into a more unsettled pattern Wednesday night through the later part of the work week as the upper ridge flattens out and flow aloft becomes more zonal. At the same time, a longwave trough will sweep across the Midwest and over the eastern US with a lead shortwave feature moving over the local area Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Down at the surface, a low pressure system will lift northeastward across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region with its associated cold front expected to push through the area on Friday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase mainly for inland areas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a weakening cluster of storms approaches from the northwest. There is still some uncertainty with how this early convection will impact storms later in the day, but the general consensus is that a very warm and unstable airmass will develop on Thursday with SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/Kg given the persistent onshore flow ahead of the front. Highs on Thursday are also expected to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. This warm and unstable airmass combined with the shortwave aloft will bring another round of showers and storms into the area Thursday evening and into early Friday morning as the front pushes into the area. Increasing deep layer shear of 50-60 knots combined with the instability could lead to some organized severe potential Thursday evening into early Friday morning potentially in the form on an MCS with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. The cold front will continue to push through the local area on Friday with dry conditions expected by early Friday evening. Cooler temperatures are anticipated behind the boundary with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry conditions likely persist through much of the weekend, although if the front tries to lift northward then areas along the coast could see a few showers or storms on Sunday and Monday. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 71 88 73 87 73 88 68 83 / 0 10 0 0 0 30 50 30 Pensacola 73 85 74 85 75 86 71 82 / 0 10 0 0 0 20 40 40 Destin 73 83 75 84 75 85 72 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 50 Evergreen 67 89 69 90 70 90 66 81 / 0 20 0 10 10 50 60 50 Waynesboro 68 89 70 91 71 90 63 80 / 0 40 0 10 10 50 60 20 Camden 67 89 69 90 70 88 63 79 / 0 30 10 10 20 60 60 40 Crestview 67 89 68 89 70 89 66 84 / 0 10 0 10 0 30 40 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Mon -- 04:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:32 AM CDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:08 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:55 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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