Wednesday, March22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Valparaiso, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:00PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 7:24 PM CDT (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:58AMMoonset 1:50PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 257 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Tonight..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thursday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A light chop becoming a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A moderate chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Monday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 257 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis..An area of high pressure will move from the great lakes to off the east coast while an area of low pressure strengthens over the plains by the end of the week. As a result, a moderate to strong onshore flow along with increasing chances of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected by this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valparaiso, FL
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location: 30.49, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 222332
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
632 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance... Only few to scattered high clouds andVFR
conditions expected overnight before increased cloud cover with
vfr to potentially MVFR ceilings overspreads the area from the
east, generally after sunrise. Light northerly winds tonight shift
to southeasterly and increase to around 10 to 15 knots Thursday
morning and afternoon. /49

Prev discussion /issued 425 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017/
near term /now through Thursday/... With an upper trough over
the northeast swinging away to the east and another moving onshore
over the southwest, an upper ridge over the plains gets moved east
to over the mississippi river by Thursday evening. Surface high
pressure centered over the great lakes gets pushed southeast, to
off the delmarva/carolina coast by Thursday evening. With increasing
subsidence from the approaching upper ridge, temps above seasonal
expected to continue, but Thursday not quite as warm as today.

The problems lies in a weak front getting pushed over eastern
portions of the forecast area today into tonight, stalling, then
beginning to wash out Thursday. For tonight, the northerly flow
brings in a bit cooler air and overnight lows ranging from low 50s
north to around 60 along the immediate coast. Tomorrow sees the
greatest affect from lingering clouds over eastern portions of the
forecast no rain is expected, but the increase cloudiness into
Thursday will help to limit daytime heating, leaving an west-east
gradient across the forecast area for high temps, even with the
approaching upper ridge. Highs ranging from mid 70s east to low
80s west. 16/sam
short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/... Ridging
surface and aloft continues over forecast area Thursday night
through Friday. With the surface high centered off to our north
and east, a low level southeasterly flow will be bringing
increased moisture into the area through the period. Upper ridge
axis moves east of the forecast area by Friday afternoon, with mid
level flow also becoming southeast to south by late Friday and the
early part of the weekend. A well defined mid/upper low pressure
area develops over the plains states by Friday afternoon and moves
slowly east-northeast toward the great lakes region by the end of
the period, with associated upper trof becoming slightly
negatively tilted as it moves east across our area Saturday
afternoon and evening. Model data shows some 500mb shortwave
energy moving across our area late Saturday afternoon and evening,
and will likely have a line of showers or storms moving east
across the region during that timeframe, and we have maintained
the good chance to likely pops for Saturday. The 12z operational
gfs and ECMWF still remain in general agreement that we will have
sufficient instability (800-900 j/kg mlcape) with shear (25-35
knots of 850 mb flow and 100-200 m2/s2 storm relative helicity,
0-3km). Potential for some strong to marginally severe storms
over the forecast area Saturday, but still rather minimal looking
for our area at this time. SPC day 4 outlook at 15% severe
potential for our CWA on Saturday, and we believe if that
potential will be there it will likely be over our western and
northern counties on Saturday afternoon. We will continue to
monitor and mention the possibility of a few strong to severe
storms in the hazardous weather outlook. With cloud cover,
increasing precipitation chances and higher dewpoints, look for
temps to moderate somewhat though still remain slightly above
normal. Highs in the 70s each day, lows generally around 60 each
night. 12/ds
long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... Brief high pressure
rebuilds over the region Sunday and Monday, but another fast
moving frontal system likely to move east across the area Monday
night and Tuesday. Somewhat unsettled pattern through the long
term period with isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms. Warmer again especially in the
daytime, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Nighttime
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. 12/ds
marine... A weak front will move south to near the coast tonight
and stall, bringing northeasterly flow. As a surface high moves
from the great lakes to off the east coast, flow over local coastal
waters shifts to southeast and with a tightening gradient becomes
moderate to strong. A small craft advisory will be in effect for
much of the marine area from 4pm Thursday to 1am Saturday. The
onshore flow remains a moderate to strong through late weekend
and into the coming week. 16/sam

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 4 pm Thursday to 1 am cdt Saturday for
gmz631-632-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi55 min W 7 G 7 70°F 70°F1018.4 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 39 mi55 min SW 8 G 9.9 71°F 70°F1018.3 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 49 mi55 min W 6 G 7 72°F 70°F1018.3 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 64 mi95 min W 14 G 16 70°F 69°F2 ft1017.9 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL3 mi30 minSE 210.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F65°F80%1018.3 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi32 minWSW 610.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1018.2 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL11 mi87 minSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F58°F49%1017.1 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL21 mi32 minN 310.00 miFair80°F51°F37%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W5W5W4W5W4SW3W6W4CalmCalmNW5CalmNW7NW4N9N10
G15
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1 day agoSW5SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW6NW4S11S9SW9SW9
G17
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2 days agoN5N6N5N5N4--NE4N6NE4W2CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4S7S10S10S10SW11S9SW5

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:47 AM CDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:02 PM CDT     0.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.100-0-0-0.1-0-000.10.20.20.30.30.40.40.50.50.50.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:23 AM CDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:37 PM CDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.20.20.10-0-0-0.1-0.1-0-000.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.30.30.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.