Tuesday, May30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Valparaiso, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 7:44PM Tuesday May 30, 2017 4:14 AM CDT (09:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:50AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 401 Am Cdt Tue May 30 2017
Today..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 401 Am Cdt Tue May 30 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to weaken and drift east over the northern gulf through midweek, allowing a weak front to approach the area. Showers and storms will continue with this pattern with the highest coverage overnight. A light southerly flow develops late in the week as high pressure rebuilds over the northern gulf.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valparaiso, FL
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location: 30.49, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 300503 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1203 am cdt Tue may 30 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... Small complex of convection moving steadily
eastward over the central gulf coast with showers following
behind its departure over mob bfm thru 08z or so. Will have tsra
passing across pns thru 08z with gusts potentially 25 to 30 kts.

Cigs forecast to be in the mid to high levels in the wake of
departing tsra. Winds light and variable overnight. 10

Prev discussion issued 928 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... 30.00z upper air analysis this evening shows a mid level
trof axis from la, southward out into the western gulf. Ahead of
this feature, a deeply moist environment remains in place over the
central gulf coast with pwat values ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches
or 110 to 130% of normal. A quasi-stationary surface front was
draped from va, southwest across central ms to southern tx. Southeast
of the frontal zone, within the deeply moist airmass and embedded
in the short wave mid level trof position, goes-r satellite data
shows pockets of cold cloud tops from the central gulf coast to
off the southwest la coast. These storm clusters were tracking
northeast in the mean high level southwest flow. The lead
convective cluster is bringing rain across southern ms per latest
radar trends. Current forecast calls for scattered showers and
storms and will leave as is. An assessment of instability shows
mid level lapse rates a bit lower than seen last evening but
mucape (1000-3000 j kg) remains more than sufficient enough to
maintain storm potential. Despite this, wind shear is weak
resulting in a very low risk of severe weather. Still could see
brief strong wind gusts, locally heavy downpours and occasional to
frequent lightning with the passage of any late evening and early
morning storms. Movement of convection east northeast at around
25 mph. 10
prev discussion... Issued 627 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... Considerable cloudiness over the deep south with
bases at high levels. Potential exists for the return of convection
late in the evening with guidance keeping lowest cig bases at
upper end MVFR categories. Winds mostly light and variable. 10
prev discussion... Issued 336 pm cdt Mon may 29 2017
near term now through Tuesday ... Showers and thunderstorms continue
to lift off to the north and northeast this afternoon as the better
forcing aloft that prompted the convection earlier today shifts
northeast, also. With another mid level impulse approaching from the
west southwest late this evening believe we will see another round
of heavy showers and thunderstorms forming to the west and offshore
late tonight shifting northeast over most of the forecast area after
midnight tonight, continuing through most of Tue morning. The
greatest coverage still looks to be over western and northern
sections of the forecast area by early Tue shifting north to
northeast through Tue afternoon. With slightly better forcing in the
mid levels with this next round combined with some drying warming in
lower levels believe we could see a few stronger storms early tue
compared to today though remaining mostly below severe limits. Wind
gusts to 40 to 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be
the main threats, along with periods of heavy rain possibly tracking
over the same location which could result in some localized nuisance
flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. By Tue afternoon
the better forcing aloft will continue to shift northeast and dampen
leading to less coverage through late Tue afternoon.

Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy for the most part through
tue afternoon though with a few breaks of Sun this afternoon and
early this evening returning again by late Tue afternoon as the
heavier rain begins lift off to the north and northeast. With this
lows tonight will continue to be above seasonal averages followed by
highs Tue remaining below average due to the clouds and rain. Lows
tonight will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most inland
areas and the mid 70s near the immediate coast. Highs Tue will climb
to the upper 70s to lower 80s for inland areas to the west, the
lower to middle 80s for inland areas to the east and the lower 80s
along the immediate coast. 32 ee
short term Tuesday night through Thursday night ... We will see
at least a chance of scattered storms Tuesday night but placement
and coverage is uncertain given the complexities of how the
current shortwave over the NW gulf will evolve as it moves east
northeast over the next 24 hours. At this point, will focus best
rain chances in the western zones based on a blend of the guidance,
but confidence is low.

Mid to upper flow will transition from southwesterly to more
zonal by Wednesday, resulting in convective chances becoming more
diurnally driven (best chances during the afternoon hours).

Thursday is a bit more uncertain as the ECMWF tries to bring in
additional shortwave energy from the southwest while the
gfs canadian are a bit more pronounced with shortwave ridging. For
now, given the uncertainties will keep a more typical diurnal
trend for convective chances. Highs will be in the mid to upper
80s with lows in the upper 60s lower 70s, near normal for this
time of year. 34 jfb
long term Friday through Monday ... Deep layer southerly flow
develops on Friday and continues into the weekend which will usher
in a tropical airmass with precipitable waters increasing to at or
above 2 inches over the weekend. Meanwhile, the global models are
in fairly good agreement on shortwave energy over the southwest
u.S. Moving east and trying to phase with a northern stream trough
by the end of the weekend as it enters the lower ms valley.

Best storm chances will initially start out over western zones on
Friday where the best deep layer moisture is likely to reside with
better chances spreading across the entire area on Saturday.

Storms could become numerous by Sunday with the aforementioned
trough moving through and creating good upper level forcing in the
presence of an unstable and deeply moist airmass. Scattered to
numerous storms will likely persist into Monday as the upper level
trough pushes a cold front toward the region. Given the pattern,
we will have to monitor the potential for locally heavy rain by
Sunday Monday. Stayed close to guidance for temps. 34 jfb
marine... High pressure will continue to weaken and drift east
over the north central and eastern gulf through midweek in response
to an upper level system and weakening frontal boundary approaching
from the west and northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
with this pattern with the better coverage occurring late tonight
through Tue morning as the weak frontal boundary nears the coast and
stalls. A light southerly flow will become better established late
wed and continue through late in the week as a weak surface ridge of
high pressure rebuilds over the north central gulf. Seas will
continue to range from 2 to 3 feet through tonight then subside to 2
feet or less for the remainder of the week. Otherwise... Wind and
waves will be higher near showers and thunderstorms through the
forecast period with less coverage expected beginning late wed
continuing through early fri. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi44 min WNW 7 G 9.9 78°F 80°F1018.8 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 39 mi44 min 74°F 81°F1018.3 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 49 mi44 min W 7 G 8.9 79°F 82°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL3 mi79 minWNW 410.00 miLight Showers Rain76°F73°F91%1018.5 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi21 minE 310.00 miA Few Clouds78°F78°F100%1017.8 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL11 mi76 minN 1110.00 miLight Rain75°F73°F94%1016.7 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL21 mi21 minN 09.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE3W14
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1 day agoSW6SW4W4W9W6W6SW11SW11W13SW13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmSW5S8SW9S11SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
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Tue -- 02:38 AM CDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:50 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:12 PM CDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.50.60.60.70.70.60.60.50.40.40.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:12 AM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:50 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 PM CDT     0.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.