Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Valparaiso, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 7:39PM Monday May 21, 2018 10:04 AM CDT (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:04PMMoonset 12:53AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 555 Am Cdt Mon May 21 2018
Today..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 555 Am Cdt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis..A weak upper low centered over the florida panhandle waters this morning will shift west and north through midweek followed by a deeper area of low pressure developing over the south central gulf tracking northward towards the lower mississippi river valley late in the week and over the weekend. This pattern will continue to lead to scattered to numerous Thunderstorms developing over the marine area both day and night through midweek followed by better coverage late in the week and over the weekend. A light to moderate easterly flow this morning will shift mostly south by late afternoon then remain southeast and south through midweek. Easterly winds and seas will build later in the week and over weekend as the next system moves northward over the central gulf.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Valparaiso, FL
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location: 30.49, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 211228 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
728 am cdt Mon may 21 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance... Mostly MVFR to ifr CIGS and visibilties through
22.18z. Lower CIGS and visibilties in low stratus and patchy fog
early each morning followed by scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds gusts
from 20 to 30 knots can be expected with most of the stronger
thunderstorms. Winds will be east at 4 to 8 knots this morning
becoming variable at 3 to 5 knots by mid afternoon continuing
through early this evening then light and variable overnight
through tues morning. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 447 am cdt Mon may 21 2018
near term now through Monday night ... A weak upper low centered
over the fl panhandle and adjacent gulf waters stretching north
over lower parts of al this morning will drift northward through
tonight leading to a continued unstable pattern across the
forecast area today and tonight. Expect mostly cloudy skies will
good coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast
area today, slowly becoming better developed generally over
eastern sections of the forecast area late this morning, then
spreading west and north through tonight. Model soundings support
this reasoning with pwats ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 inches with the
higher amounts generally over the eastern half of the forecast
area combined with marginal surface based instability and lapse
rates in the boundary layer suggesting locally heavy rain and
frequent lightning can be expected with most of the stronger
thunderstorms today and tonight. Isolated cases of gusty straight
line winds mostly during the afternoon and early evening hours, or
during MAX heating near the surface, will also be possible due to
some dry air still present aloft in the boundary layer similar to
the last few days. As the upper system to the east moves west and
north today freezing wetbulb levels lower generally from east to
west suggesting the threat of hail will also be possible with some
of the stronger convection late in the day. Similar to yesterday
several outflow boundaries will form with todays convection
helping to initiate further convection late this afternoon and
tonight. Stay tuned to local media outlets or NOAA weather radio
if threatening weather is approaching your area.

Todays highs will be somewhat moderated due to better clouds and
good coverage of precip late this morning through this afternoon.

This pattern continues through tonight with lows also moderated due
to clouds and plenty of moisture in the boundary layer. Highs today
will range from the lower to middle 80s generally along and east of
the i-65 corridor and the mid to upper 80s to the west. Lows tonight
will range from the upper 60s for most inland areas and the lower to
middle 70s along the immediate coast. 32 ee
short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... Weak upper level
low will remain in the vicinity of southeast al and the adjacent
fl panhandle Tuesday before weakening and slowly drifting toward
southwestern or western georgia Tuesday night. A weak surface
trough will also extend across our forecast area during the day
Tuesday. A deeply moist airmass will remain entrenched across much
of our forecast area Tuesday near these features, with afternoon
precipitable water values continuing to average between 1.6 and
1.9 inches. The combination of this abundant moisture, convergence
along the surface trough axis, and additional lift with the nearby
upper trough axis will result in another round of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area again Tuesday.

We will continue to trend pops in the 50-70% range over the
forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. A couple of strong to
marginally severe storms will once again be possible with
afternoon and early evening MLCAPE values ranging as high as
1500-2000 j kg. Convective coverage should tend to decrease
Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, but will still leave low
overnight pops in the forecast given the moist airmass that will
remain in place over the region.

The forecast for Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday. A
weak flow pattern aloft will be in place across the central gulf
coast region on Wednesday as the weak upper trough axis remains
over the vicinity of southern ga and northern fl, and upper
ridging extends over the lower mississippi and tennessee valley
regions. The western periphery of the upper trough axis may nose
westward into our area again Wednesday, while the weak surface
trough axis also continues to extend across our region. These
features when combined with a continued moist and unstable airmass
will result in the development of additional scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area Wednesday,
becoming more isolated to scattered by Wednesday evening night.

Little change in daily temperatures is expected through the short
term, with highs both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons mostly
ranging in the mid to upper 80s. Lows both nights remain mild in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. 21
long term Thursday through Sunday ... An unsettled stormy weather
pattern looks to continue through the extended forecast period,
but there are uncertainties and complications to the forecast
late this week into the weekend. The operational 00z medium range
guidance and GFS ensemble guidance are in relatively good
agreement that mean 500 mb troughing will extend across the
central gulf coast region and through the gulf of mexico during
the Thursday-Sunday period. We will also be monitoring for a
potential area of surface low pressure that may lift northward
over the gulf during this time frame, but there is still plenty of
spread on the ultimate development and track of this feature. However,
with the presence of mean upper troughing and plentiful moisture,
scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms are a
good bet each day Thursday through Sunday. We will need to
closely monitor for potential heavy rainfall impacts late in the
period. Little daily change in temperatures is otherwise expected
through Sunday. 21
marine... A weak upper low centered over the fl panhandle waters
this morning will shift west and north through midweek followed by a
deeper area of low pressure developing over the south central gulf
tracking northward towards the lower ms river valley late in the
week and over the weekend. This pattern will continue to lead to
scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing over the marine area
both day and night through midweek followed by better coverage late
in the week and over the weekend. A light easterly flow this morning
will shift mostly south by late afternoon then remain light to
moderate generally from the southeast and south through midweek.

Easterly winds and seas will begin to build from south to north late
in the week and over weekend as the next system moves northward over
the central gulf. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi47 min E 6 G 8 74°F 80°F1017.3 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 39 mi53 min NE 1.9 G 6 75°F 82°F1017.7 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 49 mi47 min ENE 5.1 G 6 74°F 80°F1017.4 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 64 mi35 min NE 9.7 G 12 75°F 1017.6 hPa71°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL3 mi69 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast72°F67°F86%1017.5 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL6 mi72 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast73°F68°F84%1017.1 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL11 mi69 minNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F68°F85%1016.7 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL21 mi72 minENE 510.00 miOvercast73°F68°F84%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6SE10S10NE7
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S9S86S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4NE5CalmSE3SE6
2 days agoSW9
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Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:46 AM CDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:16 PM CDT     0.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:50 PM CDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.50.50.60.60.60.60.60.50.40.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:27 AM CDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:20 PM CDT     0.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:50 PM CDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.40.40.50.50.40.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.