Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niceville, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 5:41PM Saturday February 23, 2019 9:48 AM CST (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:19PMMoonset 10:14AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 930 Am Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
.small craft should exercise caution through Sunday...
Today..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Areas of dense fog. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southwest. Waves around 2 feet. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 13 to 18 knots becoming north 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 930 Am Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis..A moderate onshore flow continues over the marine area through this evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Frontal passage late tonight and early Sunday leads to a moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow Sunday through late Monday. Fog lingers near shore, including bays and sounds through this evening. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the cold front with the best coverage occurring this evening and overnight.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niceville, FL
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location: 30.5, -86.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 231524
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
924 am cst Sat feb 23 2019

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Have updated to extend the dense fog advisory for the
coastal portions through noon given latest observations and
reports. The northern portion of the advisory is no longer in
effect as coverage of dense fog has lessened and visibilities have
improved. Zones and hazardous weather outlooks updated to reflect
these changes. 10

Prev discussion issued 539 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... Lifr to ifr CIGS and visibilities through about
23.15z followed by ifr to MVFR CIGS and visibilities through
about 24.00z followed by mostly ifr CIGS and visibilities through
24.12z. Lower CIGS and visibilities mostly in low status and fog
this morning followed by low status and patchy fog through early
this afternoon then low status, patchy fog, along with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and this
evening then mostly low stratus and light showers through 24.12z.

Winds will be south at 10 to 20 knots through this evening
shifting west then northwest late this evening and overnight.

32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 457 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
near term now through Saturday night ... Widespread dense fog
will continue through about 9 am this morning mainly over the
coastal counties of al and nwfl stretching northward over stone
and george counties in ms, possibly lingering along the immediate
coast through this evening ahead of a cold front that is expected
to move across the region overnight and early Sun morning. Fog
will erode quickly in the wake of the front as much drier air
begins to settle in. As a result the dense fog advisory will
continue in these areas through 9 am this morning.

Ahead and along the front scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected with a few strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms occurring mostly over northwestern and extreme northern
sections of the forecast area late this afternoon continuing through
about mid evening. As a result a slight risk for severe weather can
be expected in these areas late today and early tonight. Latest
model guidance continues to show a very warm moist airmass over the
north central gulf region today leading to decent instability in the
lower levels or surface based CAPE values ranging from 1000 to 1800
j kg, setting up well ahead of the front later this afternoon
continuing through this evening combined with decent vertical shear
also in the lowest 1 to 3 km through early this evening. Aloft
the best dynamical forcing still looks to be just north of the
forecast area with the tail end of a 45 to 55 knot h85 jet
skirting extreme northern sections of the forecast area by late
this afternoon and early this evening coupled with the right rear
entrance region of a 160 kt h2 jet that passes further to the
north.

Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably mild today and early
tonight then lowering to near seasonal levels for most areas to the
northwest by early Sun morning, mainly in the wake of the cold
front. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s for
most inland locations and the middle 70s along the immediate coast.

Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 50s to the
northwest or generally west of the i-65 corridor and the lower to
middle 60s to the east and along the coast. 32 ee
short term Sunday through Monday night ... The cold front should
be mostly pushing to the east of our forecast area by early Sunday
morning, but a narrow zone of moisture along the boundary will
support keeping a low chance of light rain showers across our
southeastern zones through around 9 am. A much drier airmass will
then spread eastward across our area through the rest of the day
Sunday and into Sunday night in the wake of the frontal passage.

Clearing skies, increased northerly winds, and cooler temperatures
are expected into Sunday afternoon with highs forecast to range in
the mid to upper 60s roughly along and northwest of i-65 and in
the lower 70s over our southeastern zones. Much cooler temperatures
are anticipated for Sunday night with lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s over interior areas and mid to upper 40s near the coast.

A deep layer dry airmass will remain in place through the day
Monday underneath generally zonal flow aloft. A surface ridge of
high pressure will also build eastward into the mississippi and
tennessee valleys and adjacent north central gulf coast region
through Monday morning, keeping a dry northerly to northeasterly
surface flow in place across our area. Highs Monday are expected
to average near normal for late february with readings in the mid
to upper 60s. Deep layer moistening will occur near the immediate
coast by Monday night as a shortwave trough embedded in the
westerly flow aloft lifts across the northern gulf of mexico. This
feature will bring a slight chance of rain to coastal portions of
our region after midnight Monday night. Low temperatures should
otherwise remain cool Monday night, with readings ranging from
around 40 to the mid 40s over inland areas, and a little warmer in
the upper 40s to lower 50s near the coast. 21
long term Tuesday through Friday ... A series of shortwave
impulses embedded in the zonal flow will translate across the
northern gulf of mexico and southern portions of our forecast area
Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a continued chance of rain
through midweek. The best chance of rain showers will be located
over our southern zones Tuesday into Wednesday near the axis of
higher moisture. There may be enough instability for a few
embedded thunderstorms across our region by Wednesday, but will
keep any slight mention of thunder confined to coastal areas for
now. Moist zonal flow aloft will likely persist into the end of
next week, with operational guidance showing a series of embedded
shortwave troughs bringing focus for additional rain chances
through Friday. Temperatures should slowly moderate into the
latter part of the week. 21
marine... A moderate southerly wind flow will continue over the
marine area through this evening ahead of a cold front approaching
from the west. The cold front is expected to move across the marine
area late tonight and early Sunday leading to a moderate to
occasionally strong offshore flow Sunday through late Monday. Dense
fog will continue over the near shore waters, including all inland
bays and sounds through mid morning today, lingering over the near
shore waters of alabama and northwest florida generally west of
pensacola through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead and along the cold front with the best coverage
occurring this evening and overnight. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through this evening for alz265-266.

Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for alz263>266.

Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz202-204-206.

Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until midnight cst tonight for gmz630>633-650.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi48 min SE 14 G 16 67°F 66°F1019.8 hPa (+1.1)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 40 mi48 min SSE 4.1 G 6 69°F 64°F1018.9 hPa (+1.3)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 48 mi48 min SSE 15 G 18 70°F 66°F1020 hPa (+0.9)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 65 mi38 min SSE 9.7 G 12 68°F 1018.5 hPa67°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi1.9 hrsSE 70.25 miFog67°F66°F100%1019.3 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi1.9 hrsSE 80.25 miFog67°F66°F97%1018.8 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi1.9 hrsE 40.75 miFog/Mist67°F66°F98%1018.8 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL20 mi1.9 hrsSSE 58.00 miOvercast69°F68°F96%1019 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7SE9SE7SE12SE10SE9SE10SE6SE8SE5SE9SE9SE7SE6SE6SE6SE4SE6SE7SE8SE9SE7SE9
1 day agoSE9SE7SE8SE8SE6SE7SE6E4SE7SE6SE7E4SE8SE5------SE7E4--E6E6--SE8
2 days agoSE11SE12SE12
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM CST     0.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:19 AM CST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:14 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:47 PM CST     0.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:40 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:19 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.30.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:04 AM CST     0.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:50 AM CST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:51 PM CST     0.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:41 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:20 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.40.40.50.50.60.60.60.60.50.40.30.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.