Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 4:48 AM   Moonset 6:08 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 930 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog early this morning. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 930 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis - An onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with wind speeds slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 061145 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 645 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

At issuance time, patchy fog and low stratus is in place for areas generally north of I-10 and east of I-65. This fog/stratus is giving way to LIFR conditions over these areas. Elsewhere, VFR to MVFR conditions are in place. Fog/stratus that did manage to develop this morning will dissipate over the next couple of hours, with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the day and into the evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible again this afternoon, mainly for inland areas, which could lead to brief reductions in visibility and ceilings. Southerly winds will increase to around 10 to 15 kts for this afternoon, with occasional gusts to around 20 kts possible. /96

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 417 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

An upper-level shortwave impulse, currently located over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, will continue to lift northeastward throughout the day today. In its wake, an upper ridge axis begins moving overhead tonight and shifts to our east on Tuesday. Overall, though, a general zonal flow pattern will prevail through the period. At the surface, a persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer-like pattern. For today, a few isolated warm air advection showers will be possible this morning. Very similar to the past few days, diurnal heating, in combination with weak forcing from the shortwave aloft and ample moisture in place, should allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms to develop during the afternoon, primarily over the northern half of our CWA Rain chances quickly decrease by the evening and overnight hours due to the loss of daytime heating and the ridge axis moving overhead. Tomorrow's coverage is a little less certain as the ridge axis lingers overhead. Plenty of instability and moisture continues to reside over the area, but with a lack of any large scale lift, expecting only spotty showers/storms at best, with the highest chances (~30 percent)
over our northwestern counties (as this region is further from the ridge axis).

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. A Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place through tonight, becoming a High risk tomorrow. /96

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Dry conditions are expected for the short term period as an upper ridge over the Gulf builds a bit further north, bringing subsidence to the local area. This subsidence, paired with the continued low-level warm air advection off the Gulf, will help to give way to our warmest day of the year thus far. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to rise into the mid 80s along the coast, and the upper 80s to low 90s inland (potentially a few localized spots reaching the mid 90s). With dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices will likely rise into the upper 90s for much of the area, and even close to the 100 degree mark in a few spots. Lows remain very mild, with temperatures only dropping into the low to mid 70s. A High Risk of rip currents continues through the period. /96

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Latest ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a potent upper level trough on the order of 2 standard deviations below the mean digging southward out of the Midwest beginning on Thursday. In advance of the main trough, there appears to be a lead shortwave that moves east over the top of the mid and upper ridge still in place along the north central Gulf Coast. Ongoing convection over the Mid South will likely spread southeastward Wednesday night and approach northeast portions of the forecast area by Thursday morning. As the convection advances southeast, it will likely begin to weaken as large scale ascent departs and it moves under an area of stronger ridging aloft. Northeastern portions of the area will likely experience a round of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in the morning with this weakening cluster.

Strong daytime heating is expected through the day Thursday along and south of the area affected by morning storms. Temperatures should heat well into the upper 80s to lower 90s in these areas with dewpoints remaining in the lower to middle 70s, which is supported by the latest ensemble probabilities of greater than 50% for dewpoints of greater than 74 degrees (highest along the coast). This results in the development of strong instability by Thursday afternoon.

A stronger mid level shortwave will eject southeast through the base of the mean upper trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday evening. Convection is expected to erupt to our west and quickly grow upscale as lowering mid level heights spread over the moderately unstable airmass. This convection should evolve along a surface boundary laid out from the Thursday morning convective outflow. Latest ensemble guidance probabilities are quite high at this time (60-80%) for SBCAPES greater than 1500j/kg and deep layer shear in excess of 40 kts. This combination of shear and instability would support a severe weather threat Thursday evening into early Friday morning across the north central Gulf Coast. At this time the set up favors more of a damaging wind and large hail threat with mainly long straight hodographs. Low level flow looks to be a bit weaker at this point which would tend to limit the tornado potential. We are still several days from this potential event, so we will be refining details over the next few days.

The upper trough will swing through the region late Thursday night into Friday with a cold front advancing south across our area.
Cooler temperatures along with much lower humidity levels should filter in along with a period of dry weather for Friday night through the first half of the weekend. Another upper trough digging across the Central Plains by the end of the weekend into the first part of next week will bring a returning chance for showers and storms at the end of the extended forecast period.
/JLH

MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

An onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with wind speeds slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.
Seas offshore will gradually increase to around 3 to 4 feet by the middle to latter part of the week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 87 71 88 72 89 74 89 68 / 20 0 10 0 0 0 40 50 Pensacola 84 73 85 74 86 76 86 71 / 10 10 10 0 10 0 40 40 Destin 82 73 83 74 85 76 84 72 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 20 40 Evergreen 88 68 89 69 92 72 88 65 / 30 0 20 0 10 10 50 60 Waynesboro 88 69 89 70 92 72 89 64 / 30 10 30 0 10 20 50 60 Camden 88 68 89 70 93 72 87 64 / 30 10 30 10 10 20 60 60 Crestview 88 67 89 68 90 71 89 66 / 20 0 10 0 10 0 40 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Mon -- 04:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:32 AM CDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:08 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:55 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
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East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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