Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niceville, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:13PM Friday January 19, 2018 11:20 AM CST (17:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:22AMMoonset 8:39PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 922 Am Cst Fri Jan 19 2018
Rest of today..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog after midnight.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 922 Am Cst Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis..Onshore flow returns by late Saturday as surface high pressure shifts east of the area. Potential of marine fog exists late Sunday into Monday as warm, moist onshore flow moves atop cooler near shore waters. An increase in showers along with a few storms enters the forecast late Sunday into Monday as next cold front approaches from the west. Moderate offshore flow sets up Monday night in the wake of the frontal passage.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niceville, FL
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location: 30.5, -86.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 191638 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1038 am cst Fri jan 19 2018

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Quick update to zones to remove hard freeze warning
headlines which expired. 10

Prev discussion issued 524 am cst Fri jan 19 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the forecast. The
area will see an increase in mid level clouds from the west as
onshore flow becomes more organized tonight, but am not expecting
this to impact operations.

16
prev discussion... Issued 449 am cst Fri jan 19 2018
near term now through Friday night ... An upper shortwave shifts
lowly east from over the southern plains to over the lower
mississippi river valley. This shifts surface high pressure
centered over western potions of the southeast to over eastern
portions, restoring onshore flow over the lower mississippi river
valley and western-most portions of the southeast by sunrise
Saturday. With most organized southerly flow occurring over-night
tonight, today will be pretty dry. With mostly sunny skies,
guidance is consistent in advertising temps around 10 degrees
warmer today than yesterday. There is variation between models of
a few degrees, especially over southeast mississippi (nam
coldest ECMWF warmest)due to different handling of a band of
snow ice melting over the southeast. Late in the day visible
satellite shots yesterday hard to get to pick out the state of the
frozen stuff with temps getting back below freezing, so am
assuming there is some around and am leaning towards the middle to
cooler end of the guidance for highs today. With highs getting up
in the 50s, do feel little frozen stuff will be around by
nightfall.

Tonight, with the onshore flow becoming more organized, wild card
is a mid level stratus deck guidance is advertising moving over
the forecast area from the west. Guidance varies on handling the
amount overnight (and radiational cooling), with varying lows the
result. Have went with a blend to work through these differences.

Still, another night of below seasonal temps is the result. 16
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... A 1025 mb surface
high pressure area across the southeast states will move very
slowly eastward over the western atlantic, but a trailing surface
ridge will remain across the southeast states and northeast gulf
of mexico through Sunday night. A light southerly to southeasterly
wind flow will resume across the forecast area over the weekend
along the western periphery of the surface ridge, bringing
increasing low level moisture and the potential of patchy fog late
Sunday night. An upper shortwave extending from the mid-atlantic
region to the western gulf of mexico will move slowly east over
the region with little fanfare as the mid layer remains very dry.

As a result, rain-free conditions should remain through the short
term, with only isolated light rain showers possible late Sunday
night across our extreme southwest zones as the low level
moisture increases. 22
long term Monday through Thursday ... A strong upper level low
pressure area over the central great plains will move east-
northeast, reaching new england by late Tuesday night. An
associated surface low pressure area, also over the central great
plains, will move east-northeast to new england by late Tuesday
night as well. An associated cold front will approach the region
from the west on Monday, moving through the forecast area Monday
night.

This pattern will bring widespread rain to the forecast area on
Monday, along with a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms. A
100 to 130 knot jet stream along the periphery of the upper low
will develop over the eastern CONUS on Monday, putting our area in
the right entrance region of the upper jet. This enhanced lift
across the area, along with the models trending toward higher
instability and upper level lapse rates, could promote a higher
chance of thunderstorms on Monday.

A few thunderstorms could become strong with gusty winds and
small hail due to a dry mid level air mass. Widespread rainfall
amounts around one-half inch should occur, with locally higher
amounts near one inch possible. The precipitation will then end
from west to east Monday evening. Dry conditions will follow
through Thursday as high pressure once again settles over the
region. 22
marine... Surface high pressure over the lower mississippi river
valley will shift to the east coast into the weekend, restoring
onshore flow to the area. A front will move across the area Monday
night, bringing a return off offshore flow. With surface high
pressure slowly passing north of the area through mid week, winds
slowly shift to a general east to southeast by the end of the
coming work week. 16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi51 min NNE 5.1 G 8 44°F 53°F1029.4 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 40 mi51 min SE 1 G 2.9 44°F 48°F1029.7 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 48 mi51 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 47°F 51°F1029.5 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE1
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G15
N7
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi86 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds45°F13°F27%1030.2 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi28 minNNE 410.00 miFair51°F15°F24%1028.9 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi25 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds50°F17°F27%1028.6 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL20 mi28 minVar 310.00 miFair50°F14°F24%1029.4 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N7N7N4N6NW6N6NW5N3N3N5N5N5N3N5N6CalmN5N5NW3N7NE4N3Calm
1 day agoN18
G23
N17
G22
N11N16
G21
N15N11N9N10
G17
N8N9N7N6NW5N7NW7N9N12N8N5N5N8N11N8NE9
2 days agoSE3SE5SE4CalmN10N9N9N15N15
G22
N15N12N14N14N14N14N15
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N12N13N13N15
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:46 AM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:40 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:50 PM CST     0.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.40.30.30.20.10-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.20.30.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Shalimar
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:50 AM CST     0.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:57 PM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:40 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.10.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.10.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.