Saturday, September23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Niceville, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:42PM Saturday September 23, 2017 6:04 AM CDT (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:41AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 429 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast. Smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 429 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis..High pressure ridging into the marine area from the northeast will continue through most of the forecast period, with a primary light to occasionally moderate easterly wind flow continuing over the marine area. Winds and seas highest on Sunday, before subsiding early to middle part of next week. By the middle part of next week, a light offshore wind flow is expected to develop over the coastal waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niceville, FL
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location: 30.5, -86.46     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 230939
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
439 am cdt Sat sep 23 2017

Near term now through Saturday night Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon as
weather pattern over the region will be very similar to yesterday.

Some of the storms that developed yesterday afternoon produced
gusty winds up to around 40-45 mph and some small hail up to
around nickle size, and believe that potential will again exist
today. Water vapor imagery indicates that the mid levels of the
atmosphere will be slightly more moist today which could somewhat
limit downdraft potential as compared to yesterday. However,
evening sounding data still shows large area of -10c to near -11c
at 500 mb, upstream of our forecast area. Model data shows these
relatively cold temps aloft will advect into our area today with
the northeasterly flow aloft on the north side of the
aforementioned upper low. With this, rather steep 700mb to 500mb
lapse rates today will be comparable to those of yesterday, around
6.2c km to 6.6c km. So believe that there is a potential for at
least some small hail with any of the storms that develop today,
and perhaps some strong wind gusts up to around 40 mph as well.

While a few strong storms will be possible, other than an isolated
storm or two, the severe threat is very low. Any lingering
convection will diminish during the early evening hours with the
loss of daytime heating and instability. As has been the case for
the past several nights, there could again be some patchy light
fog tonight, especially for those areas that receive the rainfall
today. Surface high pressure ridging in from the northeast will
continue to maintain a light, predominately east wind flow across
the region today, with a slight southeasterly component near shore
this afternoon in association with the sea breeze circulation.

Highs today in the upper 80s and lower 90s over most of the
interior, and mid to upper 80s along and near the coast. Lows
tonight expected to range from the upper 60s over most of the
interior to the low to mid 70s near and along the coast. 12 ds

Short term Sunday through Monday night
On Sunday the mid-level low centered over the ms al border continues
to gradual move westward. A moist airmass on the eastern side of the
low has pwats of 1.8 inches which is slightly above the 75%
moving average. Because of the ample amount of moisture associated
with these storms localized heavy rainfall could become
problematic for the southwestern half of the forecast area.

Showers and thunderstorms should begin offshore prior to sunrise
then gradually come onshore in the early morning hours. Over land
storms should linger on until the late evening while offshore the
gulf will remain warm enough to sustain convection.

Going into Monday morning with the moisture plume still overhead
showers and thunderstorms will remain offshore to start the day.

However any low-level convergence, either from the sea-breeze or
thunderstorm outflow boundaries, should be able to spark convection
overland as well. By the afternoon hours convection should become
more widespread as diurnal heating reaches its maximum. Storms
will subside by the evening hours as the aforementioned low moves

Increasing risk of rip currents Sunday and Monday due to the
constant presents of offshore showers and thunderstorms. This along
with a steady easterly flow and a developing long period swell
promotes a moderate risk of rip currents Sunday.

Max temperatures Sunday and Monday should be mitigated by the
showers and storms reaching the mid 80s. Dewpoints remain mostly
unchanged keeping minimum temperatures in the upper 60s. Dj 17

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Ridge begins to build over the southeast Tuesday due to upper-level
influences from hurricane maria. Northerly winds settle over the
northern half of the forecast area and could spark showers along the
coast Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overall however a much drier
profile develops keeping convection to a minimum both Tuesday and

During the later half of the week a deep trough develops over the
great lakes region and dives south. The corresponding cold front
reaches the gulf coast by Friday dropping temperatures into the low
80s upper 70s to start the weekend. Dj 17

High pressure ridging into the marine area from
the northeast will continue through most of the forecast period,
with a primary light to occasionally moderate easterly wind flow
continuing over the marine area. Still expect a slight offshore
component during the late night and early morning hours and a slight
onshore component during the afternoon and early evening hours. Flow
increases to near exercise caution levels on Sunday as gradient
tightens between the high pressure to the north and hurricane maria
making its closest approach to the east coast of florida. Flow
relaxes once again by Monday as maria continues to move up the
atlantic east coast. Seas initially around 2 to 3 feet, increasing
to around 4 feet on Sunday, then decreasing to 2 feet or less 1-2
feet offshore with smooth conditions on protected waters, increasing
to 3 to 4 feet over the weekend, before subsiding once again to
around 2 feet once again during the early part of next week. By
midweek, a weak frontal passage will likely result in a light
northwesterly flow over the marine area. 12 ds

Preliminary point temps pops
Mobile 89 70 85 70 20 20 60 40
pensacola 88 72 83 72 20 30 50 40
destin 88 75 84 74 20 30 50 40
evergreen 88 68 86 68 20 10 40 20
waynesboro 90 67 86 67 20 10 50 20
camden 88 68 87 68 20 10 40 10
crestview 88 70 85 69 20 20 50 30

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 37 mi46 min E 8 G 12 75°F 1014.2 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 40 mi46 min 76°F 84°F1013.8 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 48 mi46 min ENE 7 G 9.9 73°F 85°F1014.2 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 65 mi74 min NE 9.7 G 12 80°F 84°F1 ft1013.1 hPa (-0.0)75°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi68 minNE 510.00 miFair73°F67°F85%1014.1 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi71 minENE 310.00 miFair78°F69°F74%1013.3 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL13 mi2.1 hrsENE 410.00 miFair73°F67°F84%1013 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL20 mi71 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F93%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE3E4E4E5E7E8SE8SE7SE6SE8S8SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N6NE5CalmNE5NE3
1 day agoCalmN5NE5E7E6SE7SE8CalmSE5S5SE7SE9E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE5NE3N3NE3NE5
2 days agoCalmNW3CalmNW4SW7NE4W4CalmW5W8W5W4W3W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
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Sat -- 12:37 AM CDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:51 AM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:08 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Sat -- 04:29 AM CDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:08 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:08 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.