Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:14 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 930 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late this evening and early morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 930 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis - A moderate to strong southeasterly flow persists over the marine area through tonight. Southeasterly winds begin to diminish along with subsiding seas through the early part of this week. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will then prevail through the middle to late part of the the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 282342 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 642 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Another round of MVFR ceilings expected overnight with MVFR to VFR conditions on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Localized reductions in ceilings and visbys can be expected in and around showers and storms. /13

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 353 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

While most areas remain dry this afternoon, there have been a few light rain showers that have developed over southeast Mississippi.
These showers have developed as a result of some weak isentropic ascent and given that there is decent instability present, we could see a brief thunderstorm or two develop through the remainder of the afternoon over western portions of the area. This activity will dissipate by this evening with dry conditions prevailing overnight. Low temperatures will drop to around 60 degrees over south central Alabama with lower and middle 60s expected across the remainder of our inland areas. Near the coast, lows will linger in the upper 60s. Breezy conditions this afternoon will also ease this evening.

The next chance for rain will arrive on Monday as upper level ridging slides eastward and out over the western Atlantic. At the same time, an upper level shortwave slowly approaches and moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley region. Increased forcing will spread across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley late tonight and into early Monday morning as the shortwave approaches.
Hi-res guidance is in decent agreement with most models indicating a cluster/line of storms pushing across portions Louisiana and southern Mississippi in the early morning hours with isolated convection developing over our southeast Mississippi counties. The cluster of storms will begin to move into the local area and weaken through Monday afternoon as the upper shortwave pivots eastward across Mississippi and into western portions of Alabama. While there are still some discrepancies with how far east the complex will make it, most of the current CAM guidance suggests the complex will dive southeastward over Louisiana with it clipping our southeast Mississippi and far southwestern Alabama counties before moving out over the Gulf waters. MLCAPE values could still increase up to 500- 1000 J/KG across southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama by Monday afternoon which will be sufficient to support thunderstorms. However, low level and deep layer shear does not appear to be overly impressive with this system so the overall severe threat remains marginal in our western zones at this time. If the convective line is able to maintain itself tomorrow afternoon, there could be a strong or perhaps severe storm tomorrow afternoon capable of producing damaging wind gusts mainly over our southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama counties, but confidence in this potential remains low at this time. High temperatures on Monday will warm into the lower 80s inland with upper 70s along the coast.

Beach Note: Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in deadly rip currents and increased surf heights along all area beaches through early this week. Local lifeguards reported flying red and double red beach warning flags today, meaning that the Gulf Waters are closed to the public. The HIGH risk of rip currents remains in effect through early this week. Surf will also remain high between 4-7 feet this afternoon before slowly coming down to 3- 5 feet by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. A High Surf Advisory will remain in effect through 7 PM Monday. /14

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

An upper shortwave trough axis just west of the mid/lower Mississippi River Monday evening will shift east of the river by late Monday night, and then over the southeast states through Tuesday night. An upper ridge will then build over the southeast Wednesday into Thursday, with the axis shifting over East Coast by noon Friday. A weakly organized surface ridge extending from the Western Atlantic over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and north Florida shifts eastward through Tuesday night, and then rebuilds back into the region from the northeast as the upper ridge develops. Deep layer moisture with PWAT values in the 1.5"-1.8" range Monday night decreases as mid/upper level dry air moves over the southeast states with the departing upper trough.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Alabama River late Monday afternoon will spread eastward through the overnight hours into Tuesday. There will be decent instability (SBCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range) Monday night, and when combined with marginal wind shear, there may be a strong to marginally severe storm but organized storms are not expected.
Precipitation decreases through mid-week with the decreasing moisture levels and increasing subsidence, but as low level flow becomes better organized by the end of the week into the weekend, moistures levels increase again. Enough subsidence from the upper ridge remaining over the southeast states will help to temper rain chances for the coming weekend. The best chance of rain (20-30%)
will be over the northwestern portion of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon, followed by a 20% chance of storms each afternoon Friday through the weekend over the northwestern portion of the forecast area.

High temperatures near seasonal norms (low 80s) on Tuesday will increase to 2 to 6 degrees above normal (mid/upper 80s) mid week and beyond. Low temperatures will continue to range from 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 60s. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the marine area through late tonight for southeasterly winds averaging between 15-25 kts and frequent gusts up to around 30 kt possible.
Seas of 5-8 feet are also expected offshore through late tonight.
Southeasterly winds begin to diminish along with subsiding seas through the early part of this week. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will then prevail through the middle to late part of the the week. /14

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 67 81 66 82 65 84 65 85 / 0 40 50 50 10 20 0 0 Pensacola 68 79 68 80 68 81 67 82 / 0 10 30 40 0 10 0 0 Destin 68 78 68 79 68 81 68 82 / 0 0 20 30 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 59 83 62 83 62 87 62 90 / 0 20 40 50 10 10 0 10 Waynesboro 63 83 62 83 63 86 62 87 / 0 60 70 40 10 30 0 10 Camden 60 83 62 81 62 86 61 87 / 0 30 60 50 10 10 0 10 Crestview 59 83 62 82 62 87 61 89 / 0 10 20 40 0 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>634-650- 655-670-675.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Sun -- 02:03 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:14 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:37 PM CDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
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East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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