Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ferry Pass, FL
May 15, 2024 4:54 AM CDT (09:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 12:42 PM Moonset 1:43 AM |
GMZ634 Expires:202405152130;;241838 Fzus54 Kmob 150839 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 339 am cdt Wed may 15 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633>636-152130- perdido bay-pensacola bay system-western choctawhatchee bay- eastern choctawhatchee bay- 339 am cdt Wed may 15 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Thursday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 339 am cdt Wed may 15 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz633>636-152130- perdido bay-pensacola bay system-western choctawhatchee bay- eastern choctawhatchee bay- 339 am cdt Wed may 15 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 339 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - A weak pressure pattern supports light wind flow and lowering sea states for the middle of the week. Onshore flow returns and becomes well established by the end of the week continuing into Saturday, resulting in a gradual build in seas to a range of 3 to 6 ft. Marine weather to become more unsettled by late in the week with approach of next weather maker.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KMOB 150506 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1205 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
VFR conditions are expected for most of the area over the next 24 hours, with mainly over a few mid/high clouds possible. An area of low clouds has developed across portions of southern Baldwin county AL and over the coastal portions of the western FL panhandle, and these will likely persist for at least the next several hours. The PNS and JKA Tafs will be looking at low end MVFR ceilings at times overnight. Winds mainly light west to southwesterly tonight. Winds become more west to northwesterly around 10 to 15 knots by late Wednesday afternoon for most locations, but remaining more westerly near the coast. DS/12
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 741 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with only a few high clouds possible. Winds mainly light west to southwesterly tonight. Winds become more west to northwesterly around 10 to 15 knots by late Wednesday afternoon for most locations, but remaining more westerly near the coast. DS/12
UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Forecast for tonight remains on track. The very marginal threat for a strong storm over interior Alabama to the east of I-65 has ended and no convective threats are expected through Wednesday. There may be a few showers (possibly a thunderstorm or two) along and east of a weak boundary that continues to stretch across that area through mid evening, but if those do occur over the next few hours (which isn't for certain at all), no hazardous impacts are expected. By late evening through Wednesday no precipitation is expected.
The previous afternoon forecast discussion talked about the potential for severe weather again later this week, primarily late Thursday night into Friday. We would add that in addition to a possible severe threat, that there will also be a good potential for heavy rainfall and potential flooding (especially into Friday).
Portions of the region have received only 7 inches of rain over the past 24 hours, and we will only get a day or two (at most) to dry out before the next potentially heavy round of rainfall. WPC has our entire area outlooked with a SLIGHT chance of excessive rainfall Friday into Friday night, and with some models indicating the possibility of another 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over portions of the forecast area, we will have to be monitoring for possible flooding concerns going into the weekend. Several area rivers have gone into minor flood as a result of the recent heavy rainfall, and additional rises of these rivers, and others, is possible.
One last note: the Small Craft Advisory that was in effect for the offshore portions of the Gulf zones has been allowed to expire, but a HIGH rip current risk continues along area beaches through Wednesday afternoon.
DS/12
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
An upper trof oriented near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley progresses slowly across the eastern states to just off the East Coast through Wednesday night. An associated surface low currently located near the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence progresses to near the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and in the process brings a weak cold front through the forecast area tonight. Ahead of the approaching frontal boundary, a modest zone of low level convergence oriented roughly along the I-65 corridor will combine with the frontal boundary to produce isolated to potentially scattered convective development during the remainder of the afternoon, with the best potential mainly along the I-65 corridor. The convection diminishes this evening with dry conditions then following for the overnight hours through Wednesday night. MLCAPE values for the rest of this afternoon into the early evening hours look to be mostly 1500-2500 J/kg, which along with deep layer shear values near 45 knots could allow for a few storms to possibly become severe. The best potential for this to occur is over much of southwest and south central Alabama, including the western Florida panhandle, where a Marginal Risk of severe storms exists. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to near 70 at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then lows Wednesday night range from around 60 well inland to the upper 60s at the immediate coast. A high risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday, then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday night. /29
LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
The pattern will become active again after a brief break on Wednesday and Wednesday night. An elongated mid and upper level low pressure system currently positioned over the Pacific to the west of southern California will be our next system to potentially bring high impact weather along the northern Gulf Coast. This feature is expected to quickly translate eastward across the southern tier of the U.S. over the next few days and be located over the Southern Plains by Friday. This is supported by the latest ensemble model suites. Much of the model guidance is also suggesting that a lead southern stream shortwave should eject across our forecast area out ahead of the main approaching mid/upper level trough. As this occurs, there is a fairly robust signal in the ensemble probabilistic guidance that there will be a surge of deep tropical moisture northward across the north central Gulf Coast associated with a lifting warm front with the air mass destabilizing rapidly along and south of the front by Thursday night. In addition, the lifting warm front should be aided by a strengthening low level jet which should be spreading across the warm front. As low level winds become enhanced in association with the lead shortwave which interacts with increasing instability, storms are expected to form initially along and north of the boundary. A few of these storms may become severe but should be initially elevated in nature. With time towards Friday morning, storms may become increasingly surface based. This would only help to increase the overall severe weather potential into Friday morning.
There may tend to be a break in convective activity later Friday before the primary forcing associated with the main mid/upper level trough overspreads the region Friday night into Saturday morning. This should support another round of storms, some potentially severe, during this time period. There will be some uncertainty with respect to the overall instability available for newly developing convection overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. This will hinge on mesoscale processes associated with the Thursday night into Friday morning convection. The question, as was the case with our latest past event, is whether the first round of storms will disrupt the instability that will be available for the Friday night into Saturday morning convective system. These details will not be known until we get closer to the event and begin to see the eventual evolution of storms associated with the lead shortwave. Either way, conditions appear to be increasingly favorable for some severe weather potential during the end of this week with details to still be worked out over the coming forecast cycles.
Storm coverage may continue into Saturday as the upper trough remain over the area and a potential boundary drapes across the area. This again will be dependent upon the evolution of the convection Friday night into Saturday morning and whether or not the air mass can recover. Another reinforcing northern stream shortwave trough digs into the region on Sunday and pushes a cold front across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop in association with the cold frontal passage on Sunday.
Upper level ridging should become re-established across the Gulf Coast states by early next week and bring a return to dry weather along with increasingly hot temperatures. /JLH
MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Will have a Small Craft Advisory continue until 5 pm for the 20-60 nm portion to allow for southwesterly winds to subside a bit more.
No concerns are otherwise expected through Thursday night. An onshore flow gradually strengthens Friday into Friday night then diminishes Saturday into Saturday night and becomes west to northwest. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary from late Friday night into Saturday morning. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 64 88 68 82 70 85 67 88 / 0 0 30 80 60 50 20 20 Pensacola 67 86 72 82 75 83 71 88 / 0 0 20 70 60 60 30 20 Destin 68 85 73 82 76 83 72 85 / 0 0 20 60 60 70 30 20 Evergreen 61 89 66 82 68 83 65 88 / 0 0 30 80 70 60 30 30 Waynesboro 60 88 65 80 67 84 63 88 / 0 0 50 90 60 50 20 20 Camden 60 86 66 80 67 83 64 85 / 0 0 40 80 70 50 30 20 Crestview 62 91 66 84 70 84 66 88 / 0 0 20 70 60 70 30 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1205 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024
VFR conditions are expected for most of the area over the next 24 hours, with mainly over a few mid/high clouds possible. An area of low clouds has developed across portions of southern Baldwin county AL and over the coastal portions of the western FL panhandle, and these will likely persist for at least the next several hours. The PNS and JKA Tafs will be looking at low end MVFR ceilings at times overnight. Winds mainly light west to southwesterly tonight. Winds become more west to northwesterly around 10 to 15 knots by late Wednesday afternoon for most locations, but remaining more westerly near the coast. DS/12
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 741 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with only a few high clouds possible. Winds mainly light west to southwesterly tonight. Winds become more west to northwesterly around 10 to 15 knots by late Wednesday afternoon for most locations, but remaining more westerly near the coast. DS/12
UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Forecast for tonight remains on track. The very marginal threat for a strong storm over interior Alabama to the east of I-65 has ended and no convective threats are expected through Wednesday. There may be a few showers (possibly a thunderstorm or two) along and east of a weak boundary that continues to stretch across that area through mid evening, but if those do occur over the next few hours (which isn't for certain at all), no hazardous impacts are expected. By late evening through Wednesday no precipitation is expected.
The previous afternoon forecast discussion talked about the potential for severe weather again later this week, primarily late Thursday night into Friday. We would add that in addition to a possible severe threat, that there will also be a good potential for heavy rainfall and potential flooding (especially into Friday).
Portions of the region have received only 7 inches of rain over the past 24 hours, and we will only get a day or two (at most) to dry out before the next potentially heavy round of rainfall. WPC has our entire area outlooked with a SLIGHT chance of excessive rainfall Friday into Friday night, and with some models indicating the possibility of another 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over portions of the forecast area, we will have to be monitoring for possible flooding concerns going into the weekend. Several area rivers have gone into minor flood as a result of the recent heavy rainfall, and additional rises of these rivers, and others, is possible.
One last note: the Small Craft Advisory that was in effect for the offshore portions of the Gulf zones has been allowed to expire, but a HIGH rip current risk continues along area beaches through Wednesday afternoon.
DS/12
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
An upper trof oriented near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley progresses slowly across the eastern states to just off the East Coast through Wednesday night. An associated surface low currently located near the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence progresses to near the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and in the process brings a weak cold front through the forecast area tonight. Ahead of the approaching frontal boundary, a modest zone of low level convergence oriented roughly along the I-65 corridor will combine with the frontal boundary to produce isolated to potentially scattered convective development during the remainder of the afternoon, with the best potential mainly along the I-65 corridor. The convection diminishes this evening with dry conditions then following for the overnight hours through Wednesday night. MLCAPE values for the rest of this afternoon into the early evening hours look to be mostly 1500-2500 J/kg, which along with deep layer shear values near 45 knots could allow for a few storms to possibly become severe. The best potential for this to occur is over much of southwest and south central Alabama, including the western Florida panhandle, where a Marginal Risk of severe storms exists. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to near 70 at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then lows Wednesday night range from around 60 well inland to the upper 60s at the immediate coast. A high risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday, then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday night. /29
LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
The pattern will become active again after a brief break on Wednesday and Wednesday night. An elongated mid and upper level low pressure system currently positioned over the Pacific to the west of southern California will be our next system to potentially bring high impact weather along the northern Gulf Coast. This feature is expected to quickly translate eastward across the southern tier of the U.S. over the next few days and be located over the Southern Plains by Friday. This is supported by the latest ensemble model suites. Much of the model guidance is also suggesting that a lead southern stream shortwave should eject across our forecast area out ahead of the main approaching mid/upper level trough. As this occurs, there is a fairly robust signal in the ensemble probabilistic guidance that there will be a surge of deep tropical moisture northward across the north central Gulf Coast associated with a lifting warm front with the air mass destabilizing rapidly along and south of the front by Thursday night. In addition, the lifting warm front should be aided by a strengthening low level jet which should be spreading across the warm front. As low level winds become enhanced in association with the lead shortwave which interacts with increasing instability, storms are expected to form initially along and north of the boundary. A few of these storms may become severe but should be initially elevated in nature. With time towards Friday morning, storms may become increasingly surface based. This would only help to increase the overall severe weather potential into Friday morning.
There may tend to be a break in convective activity later Friday before the primary forcing associated with the main mid/upper level trough overspreads the region Friday night into Saturday morning. This should support another round of storms, some potentially severe, during this time period. There will be some uncertainty with respect to the overall instability available for newly developing convection overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. This will hinge on mesoscale processes associated with the Thursday night into Friday morning convection. The question, as was the case with our latest past event, is whether the first round of storms will disrupt the instability that will be available for the Friday night into Saturday morning convective system. These details will not be known until we get closer to the event and begin to see the eventual evolution of storms associated with the lead shortwave. Either way, conditions appear to be increasingly favorable for some severe weather potential during the end of this week with details to still be worked out over the coming forecast cycles.
Storm coverage may continue into Saturday as the upper trough remain over the area and a potential boundary drapes across the area. This again will be dependent upon the evolution of the convection Friday night into Saturday morning and whether or not the air mass can recover. Another reinforcing northern stream shortwave trough digs into the region on Sunday and pushes a cold front across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop in association with the cold frontal passage on Sunday.
Upper level ridging should become re-established across the Gulf Coast states by early next week and bring a return to dry weather along with increasingly hot temperatures. /JLH
MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Will have a Small Craft Advisory continue until 5 pm for the 20-60 nm portion to allow for southwesterly winds to subside a bit more.
No concerns are otherwise expected through Thursday night. An onshore flow gradually strengthens Friday into Friday night then diminishes Saturday into Saturday night and becomes west to northwest. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary from late Friday night into Saturday morning. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 64 88 68 82 70 85 67 88 / 0 0 30 80 60 50 20 20 Pensacola 67 86 72 82 75 83 71 88 / 0 0 20 70 60 60 30 20 Destin 68 85 73 82 76 83 72 85 / 0 0 20 60 60 70 30 20 Evergreen 61 89 66 82 68 83 65 88 / 0 0 30 80 70 60 30 30 Waynesboro 60 88 65 80 67 84 63 88 / 0 0 50 90 60 50 20 20 Camden 60 86 66 80 67 83 64 85 / 0 0 40 80 70 50 30 20 Crestview 62 91 66 84 70 84 66 88 / 0 0 20 70 60 70 30 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 8 mi | 55 min | WNW 8G | 76°F | 29.79 | |||
| WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 36 mi | 70 min | WSW 1.9 | 76°F | 29.83 | 75°F | ||
| 42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy | 37 mi | 45 min | WSW 18G | 77°F | 77°F | 29.80 | 74°F | |
| EFLA1 | 45 mi | 55 min | 76°F | 74°F | ||||
| PTOA1 | 47 mi | 55 min | 74°F | 73°F | ||||
| FRMA1 | 48 mi | 55 min | W 17G | 78°F | 29.80 | 78°F | ||
| MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL | 48 mi | 55 min | WSW 2.9G | 74°F | 76°F | 29.80 | ||
| OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL | 48 mi | 55 min | 73°F | 77°F | 29.82 | |||
| MBPA1 | 49 mi | 55 min | 74°F | 74°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPNS PENSACOLA INTL,FL | 3 sm | 53 min | W 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 75°F | 70°F | 83% | 29.79 | |
| KNPA PENSACOLA NAS/FORREST SHERMAN FIELD,FL | 14 sm | 58 min | WSW 05 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 79°F | 72°F | 79% | 29.78 | |
| KNSE WHITING FIELD NAS NORTH,FL | 16 sm | 58 min | W 06 | 7 sm | Partly Cloudy | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 29.80 |
Tide / Current for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:43 AM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:40 AM CDT 0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:53 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:41 PM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:33 PM CDT 1.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:43 AM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:40 AM CDT 0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:53 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:41 PM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:33 PM CDT 1.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| 0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Pensacola
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:43 AM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:37 AM CDT 0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:54 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:41 PM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 04:57 PM CDT 1.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:43 AM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:37 AM CDT 0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:54 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:41 PM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 04:57 PM CDT 1.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Pensacola, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| 0 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Northwest Florida,
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