Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:28 AM   Moonset 5:49 PM

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AMZ452 Expires:202405071015;;736558 Fzus52 Kjax 061855 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 255 pm edt Mon may 6 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-071015- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 255 pm edt Mon may 6 2024
Tonight - South winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday night and Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Saturday - Northwest to north winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of a shower.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 255 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis -
high pressure ridge will gradually shift south and east through Thursday with breezy south winds expected at times. Offshore winds develop by Thursday night as a weak cold front approaches the region. Evening southerly wind surges may lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until the cold front arrives by Friday night. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage. Brief period of strong northerly winds possible in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 04, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 90 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 061944 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 344 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING

HOT CONDITIONS BUILDING MIDWEEK

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

NEAR TERM
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A healthy cumulus field has developed with a few showers popping along Atlantic sea breeze over northeast FL coastal counties with a couple of showers also over eastern Marion, Putnam, and soon to be Clay county. Sfc flow is light southerly over inland areas and southeast at the coast from the sea breeze. Instability is climbing, with recent analysis showing about 1000-1500 MLCAPE and PWATs are about 1.5 to 1.7 inches, a bit above the average.
The forecast continues to show increasing chances of showers and storms rest of today into the evening, with the favored area inland areas. Minor adjustments were made to increase POPS slightly by the evening hours, as the delayed onset of convection so far will likely lead to convection continuing well into the evening before dissipating by about midnight or 1 AM. The shortwave that is moving across later this aftn and evening will also be supportive of the expected scattered convection. Main threats continues to be strong gusty outflow winds and heavy rainfall. Small hail is possible too given 500 mb temps are cooling off to about -10C. After convection is done late tonight, patchy fog will be possible over the western zones as winds become light and variable and clouds clear out to the east. Lows expected in the mid to upper 60s tonight.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday, patchy fog expected over the western most counties along and west of US441 in SE GA and west of I-75 in NE FL with lows above normal in the mid to upper 60s inland and upper 60s to around 70 at coast. Low level ridge axis will shift south to central FL with light SW winds 8-12 mph and little higher behind the pinned Atlantic seabreeze staying east of I-95 to 10-15 mph. Less moisture compared to Monday will yield limited chances for showers and T'storms expected with only isolated storms possible east of US17 corridor. With mostly sunny skies, highs will be warmer into the lower 90s for most with mid to upper 80s along the coast.

Wednesday, similar above normal lows compared to Tuesday morning with patchy fog west of US-17 towards the Suwannee valley due to light south to SW light winds from the Gulf boosting low level moisture under mostly clear skies. With low level ridge axis over south FL, highs will rise well above normal as southwest winds 8-12 mph pin the Atlantic seabreeze to along the beaches with hot conditions reaching the mid 90s along US-17/I-95 corridors Wednesday and challenging daily record high values.

Similar conditions expected Thursday, albeit breezier as cold front moves into the deep south with SW flow pinning Atlantic seabreeze and providing little relief. Heat index values will peak around 100 degrees as dewpoints mix down into the upper 60s in the breezy flow. Some convection may arrive late Thursday afternoon and evening from central GA ahead of the approaching cold front with a risk for strong to even isolated severe storms that may bring a threat for gusty winds from Waycross/US82 areas north to the Altamaha river basin late Thursday. Dry conditions will remain elsewhere with highs reaching the mid 90s with isolated upper 90s along the I-95 and US-17 corridors.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Friday, a more potent mid to upper level trough will swing ESE from the mid MS valley to the southern Appalachians and support the eastward progression of a surface cold front into the lower deep south into the FL Gulf coast. Enhanced low and mid level flow ahead of the front will boost moisture to above normal levels with shortwave energy and the unstable airmass spurring scattered to numerous coverage of showers and T'storms. Isolated severe storms will be possible with a threat for gusty winds. Increased clouds will limit highs into the mid to upper 80s over much of SE GA and towards Suwannee valley with low 90s over the I-95 corridor of NE FL ahead of the front where less clouds and lower showers and T'storm coverage expected until later in the afternoon.
Morning lows will be muggier in the low 70s.

Saturday, the cold front will sink from NE FL to central FL with more confidence between the ECMWF and the GFS models on pressing the front south of the area by afternoon. Therefore, only showing isolated showers in the forecast with a few T'Storms possible over southern most counties of north central FL. Weak ridging aloft will move in the wake of a departing trough from the mid MS valley into the southern Appalachians and allow weak high pressure to shift from central plains to the Gulf coast with lower dewpoints in the 50s and west to NW winds along and behind the front with a drop in high temperatures with low 80s over SE GA into interior NE FL ranging into the upper 80s over the St Johns river basin and north central FL. Lows Saturday will be in the upper 50s/low 60s NW of Jacksonville and mid to upper 60s closer to the NE FL coast and north central FL.

Sunday, next upstream mid to upper level trough pinwheels into the Ohio Valley. Both GFS and ECMWF models hold off the next wave of low pressure from arriving until late Sunday night into Monday with potential for heavier rain showers and some embedded strong to severe storms and low level flow once again becomes enhanced.
Will limit coverage of showers and storms to areas south of I-10 for Sunday and then steadily raise coverage to scattered chances through Monday afternoon. Winds will be light from the WNW Sunday and become variable on Monday depending on the exact track of the wave of low pressure. Highs Sunday will be similar to Saturday with low 80s over SE GA and mid to upper 80s over much of NE FL, then cooler Monday with low 80s area wide due to more clouds and shower potential. Cooler lows in the upper 50s inland expected with low 60s closer to the coast to end the weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR clouds at 4-5 kft. Very isolated weak convection has developed so far not far from SGJ and GNV. But for now, the forecast remains on track with TEMPO groups for JAX, VQQ, and GNV where the chances are best at this time. Only adjustment was to add some vsby problems in the TSRA this afternoon and evening and add some variable wind directions, mostly based on latest HRRR runs. So looks like most convection winding down by 04z tonight, but think a couple of lingering showers are possible during that time. Some fog may develop late tonight to the west of all the TAF sites so no mention in the latest TAF set at this time. VFR clouds expected on Tuesday. Sfc winds turning southeast around 10 kt already at SGJ, CRG, and SSI and within the next couple of hours for JAX and VQQ.

MARINE
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Breezy south winds expected tonight that may near exercise caution criteria for a brief time but mainly around solid 15 kt, before diminishing to 10-15 kt after 06z. Combined seas near 2-4 ft. A near repeat of basic wind dir and speeds anticipated on Tuesday, and likely for Wed and Thu as the high pressure ridge remains well to the east of the area supporting a decent pressure gradient.
Winds up to 15-20 kt will be possible by late afternoon and well into the evening, with increasing chances of this by Thu and Fri as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. Increased chance of offshore moving t-storms by Friday in association with the frontal boundary. The front looks to pass through the area by Saturday morning, with wind flow becoming northwest to north behind the front.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk at area beaches through Tuesday and probably Wed with little overall change anticipated at this time based on surf near the 2-3 ft range.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

High pressure extends from the western Atlantic over the area with light southerly flow 5-10 mph through sunset. Atlantic seabreeze will bring southeast winds 10-15 mph inland to US-17, then towards US 301 before merging with the southwesterly Gulf seabreeze. Scattered storms will result along US301 and I-75 over Florida and from US-1 to US441 over Georgia with gusty winds 40-50 mph, locally heavy downpours, and rainfall amounts up to 2 inches in isolated spots. Southwest winds prevail Wednesday pining the Atlantic seabreeze east of I-95 with isolated storms expected east of US17 to the coast. Drier conditions in store Wednesday with hotter temperatures rising to the mid 90s with lower Min RH values, but still above critical values. Hot and dry weather conditions persist into Thursday except for late day scattered showers/storms over Georgia. High dispersions due to increasing southwest transport winds expected Tuesday and also Wednesday. Next cold front arrives on Friday with a threat for isolated severe storms.

CLIMATE
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th
JAX 94/1977
CRG 94/1977
GNV 96/1955
AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th
JAX 96/1959
CRG 93/1977
GNV 97/1955
AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th
JAX 96/1962
CRG 93/2008
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th
JAX 94/2017
CRG 95/2003
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 91 68 92 / 30 0 0 10 SSI 70 87 70 89 / 20 10 0 0 JAX 67 92 69 94 / 30 20 0 0 SGJ 69 90 70 91 / 20 20 0 0 GNV 66 91 67 92 / 30 20 0 0 OCF 67 91 68 93 / 20 10 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Boggy Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:30 AM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boggy Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, Florida, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:46 AM EDT     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     2.45 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:49 PM EDT     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     3.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:43 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3), knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


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