Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Callahan, FL

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Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday June 20, 2019 8:18 PM EDT (00:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 8:15AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 809 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Rest of tonight..West southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 809 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis.. A persistent southwest flow will continue through the period as a high pressure ridge remains south of the region and a low pressure trough lingers north of the waters. Elevated winds and seas will continue over the waters through Friday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jun 20, 2019 at 1200 utc... 70 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 75 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 83 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 99 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Callahan, FL
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location: 30.56, -81.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 202035
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
435 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for all of SE ga
and nassau county until 10 pm this evening...

Near term [through Friday night)
A moist and unstable (sfc based capes 3000-3500j) SW flow to the
north of a deep layer ridge and southeast of a trough under a
moderate amount of shear was producing rounds of fast moving
showers and storms producing heavy rains and strong and gusty
winds. This activity will continue with the final round of
showers and storms moving offshore by early this evening.

Depending upon the amount of heating some of these storms may
produce strong to possibly damaging winds in addition to heavy
rain and frequent lightning.

Next concern is that high-res models consistent on developing
a squall line out ahead of short wave trough which will be
moving across much of SE ga this eve. This squall line will
traverse SE ga during the early eve and then weaken as it
heads towards the i-10 corridor later in the evening due
to loss of heating and weakening of trough. Due to steep
lapse rates in combination to moderate amounts of deep shear
and forced ascent... Main concerns will be for severe storms
capable of hail and damaging winds. SPC has all of SE ga
and nassau county of NE fl until 10 pm this evening.

As the short wave trough exits to the NE on Friday... An upper
ridge begins to build in across the fl peninsula. Slightly
drier air works into the SE ga resulting in low coverage of
storms there. However... Pwats of 1.80 to 2.00 inches will
continue across NE fl and expecting a round of scattered
afternoon storms enhanced by the west coast seabreeze.

Shear values will not be as much as today but given heating
and steep lapse rates... Strong storms still possible with
strong and gusty winds. Afternoon high temps in the mid 90s
combined with the humidity will produce heat indices close
to 105 degrees. Any storms that manage to get going will
fade in the evening after loss of heating.

.Short term (Saturday-Sunday night)
deep layer ridging will be across S fl on Saturday and
retrograde to the gulf of mexico Sunday providing a
westerly flow on Saturday and northwest flow on Sunday.

While the air mass will be somewhat drier... The low
levels will be hotter with pwats will still be above
1.50 inches. In addition... There will be some induced
troughing over the area especially Sunday as the deep
layer ridge moves into the gulf. This results in hot
afternoons with scattered storms developing from
seabreezes and weak troughing. Best rain rain chances
will be across SE ga and also east of the i-75 corridor
across NE fl where collisions of seabreezes and outflows
will occur. Given steep lapse rates and slightly drier
air aloft... The concern would be for pulse storms
capable of strong to possibly damaging winds. Hot afternoon
temps in the mid 90s will combine with the humidity to
produce afternoon heat indices of 105 to 108 degrees
which is close to heat advisory criteria.

Long term (Monday-Thursday)
The deep layer ridge will continue to slowly retrograde
along the gulf coast while there is broad induced
troughing across the region. The air mass will continue
moist and unstable which will lead to scattered afternoon
and evening storms each day enhanced by seabreezes and
outflows. Temps to continue above climo.

Aviation Passing showers and tstorms will continue to impact
the terminals through this afternoon. Non-convective gusts of
25-30 kts are expected from the wsw with tstorms producing gusts
of 35-40 kts. After 22z, expect mainly lingering showers with
another line of storms moving over SE ga this evening which could
impact ssi during the evening hours. Heavy rainfall will cause
restrictions to ifr MVFR. Tonight, winds relax while remaining wsw
as showers and thunderstorms decrease in coverage and intensity as
they drift southward over NE fl. Low stratus could cause some
early morning restrictions and trended toward few-sct 1-2 kft at
this time.

Marine The combination of a ridge to the south and weak
low passing to the north tonight will produce southwest
winds reaching exercise caution criteria across the waters.

The ridge to the south moves further north which decreases
the gradient somewhat resulting in somewhat lower SW winds
and no headlines expected. Tail end of squall line may be
moving across offshore across portions of the SE ga waters
this eve.

Rip currents: low risk is expected for Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 73 94 74 96 70 10 0 40
ssi 77 95 78 93 50 10 0 50
jax 76 95 76 95 20 40 0 40
sgj 76 94 76 93 20 40 10 30
gnv 75 93 75 93 20 40 10 10
ocf 76 92 74 93 20 30 0 10

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Pp ae mz kb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DMSF1 15 mi49 min 83°F
BLIF1 16 mi49 min SW 16 G 19 87°F 1013.1 hPa79°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 17 mi49 min SW 8 G 11 89°F 84°F1012.6 hPa
LTJF1 20 mi49 min 88°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 20 mi49 min WSW 14 G 19 87°F 83°F1012.4 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 26 mi19 min 81°F2 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 55 mi19 min SW 8 G 12 87°F 78°F1013.4 hPa (-0.6)75°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 64 mi79 min SW 18 89°F 1010 hPa (-2.0)77°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville International Airport, FL5 mi23 minWSW 15 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F73°F65%1012.7 hPa
Fernandina Beach Municipal Airport, FL15 mi24 minSW 12 G 1610.00 miFair86°F75°F70%1012.5 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL20 mi26 minWSW 1410.00 miFair87°F75°F67%1012.7 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL20 mi27 minWSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F73°F65%1012.4 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL23 mi26 minWSW 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F72°F59%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from JAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10S9S9SW10SW8SW7SW6SW7SW9SW7SW9SW10SW12
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1 day agoCalmCalmW4SW5SW5SW4SW6W4S6SW6SW3CalmS8SW8SW7SW10S20
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2 days agoE7SE8S3S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW5SW6W3W7W7S433SE11S13S10SW4W4

Tide / Current Tables for Boggy Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, Florida
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Boggy Creek
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Thu -- 03:01 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:22 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:16 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.433.53.63.532.41.71.10.80.81.21.82.42.83.132.72.11.61.20.911.5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3)
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:39 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:20 AM EDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:51 AM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:12 PM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM EDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.90.9-0.4-1.4-1.8-1.8-1.5-1.1-0.50.51.61.91.50.8-0.3-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.7-0.20.71.82.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.