Wednesday, May24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 10:15 PM CDT (03:15 UTC) Moonrise 5:03AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 701 Pm Cdt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Choppy to rough becoming choppy.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop.
Thursday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Friday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a moderate chop.
Friday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Saturday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Sunday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 701 Pm Cdt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis..Moderate to strong westerly winds will continue through early this evening before becoming northwesterly tonight. A moderate onshore flow returns Friday through early next week as a surface ridge of high pressure shifts toward the eastern gulf of mexico and the florida peninsula.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 242358 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
658 pm cdt Wed may 24 2017

Discussion Updated for latest marine discussion below.

Marine Latest surface data collection platforms over the marine
area indicate that wind speed has lowered to below small craft
advisory criteria for portions of area bays and sounds from
perdido bay eastward. Will replace with small exercise caution
headlines. For southern mobile bay and the adjacent ms sound,
west northwest winds remain in advisory criteria. The latest high
resolution hrrr guidance suggests that wind speeds will remain so,
there, over the next few hours and have thus extended the
advisory for these areas thru 10 pm. For the open gulf waters,
advisory remains unchanged. 10

Prev discussion issued 635 pm cdt Wed may 24 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00z issuance...VFR conditions forecast at the terminals with passing
cu this evening having bases above 6 kft. Scattered shra possible
over the interior with departures heading northbound. Vsby ok.

Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots. 10
prev discussion... Issued 355 pm cdt Wed may 24 2017
near term now through Thursday ... An upper level low pressure
system continues to propagate southward across southern mo toward
northern ar this afternoon, while a broader scale upper level trough
extends across the mississippi tennessee valleys and central gulf
coast region. A surface cold front has pushed to the east of our
forecast area this afternoon, with gusty westerly winds and lower
dewpoints in the 50s spreading across our region. While earlier
convection has moved to the east of the forecast area along and
ahead of the front, visible satellite imagery shows an agitated
cumulus field spreading into interior southeast ms and southwest al
along the trough axis, and there will still be opportunity for a few
isolated light rain showers to develop over the interior through
this evening as the trough axis moves across the region. We will
keep a 20% pop in the forecast this evening mainly north of hwy 84.

We otherwise expect clearing skies late tonight into Thursday as a
drier northwest flow aloft spreads into our region in the wake of
the departing trough axis. A building surface ridge, clearing skies
and a drier airmass will support cooler low temperatures tonight
with readings in the lower to mid 50s over most interior areas, with
upper 50s to mid 60s expected near the immediate coast and beaches.

Highs Thursday are forecast to range from around 80 to the lower 80s
across most locations. 21
short term Thursday night through Saturday night ... The pleasant
break from humidity quickly vanishes heading into the short term
period. Surface high pressure builds into the western atlantic and
onshore flow is reestablished across the central gulf coast by
Friday. Despite increasing low level moisture and cloudiness,
however, the short term remains rain free thanks in large part to
mid-level subsidence beneath an upper high parked over the
central and northern gulf. High temperatures will reach the upper
80's to low 90's inland and the mid 80's along the beaches both
Friday and Saturday afternoons. Overnight lows gradually warm
into the weekend as moisture returns to the area, with temps in
the low to mid 60's Thursday night becoming low to mid 70's by
Saturday night.

long term Sunday through Wednesday ... Unsettled weather returns
for much (if not all) of the long term period. A large and deep
upper-level low pressure system over eastern canada pushes the
high pressure in the central gulf farther south and east. This
shift places a more organized zonal upper-level flow over the
central gulf coast along the southern periphery of the
aforementioned canadian low. Beneath this setup, a weak frontal
boundary sags into the local area before stalling and, save for
some minor shifting due to mesoscale forcing mechanisms (e.G.,
sea land breezes), remains stationary into next week. A combination
of the stationary boundary, onshore surface flow, and a series of
impulses embedded within the upper-level flow will support daily
shower and thunderstorm activity beginning as early as Sunday
afternoon evening and lasting into the middle part of next week.

In terms of temperature, Sunday likely remains hot (upper 80's to
low 90's inland, mid 80's along the beach) before the front
enters the area. Monday through the middle of next week, however,
will see highs only reaching the mid 80's as cloud cover and
thunderstorms help to mitigate daytime heating. Low temps will
depend on the location of the stationary front each night. Sunday
night, most locations will continue to see lows in the low to mid
70's before the boundary stalls across the area. Heading into the
rest of the long term (Monday and Tuesday nights), temps north of
the stalled front will dip as low as the mid 60's. Temps south of
the front and along area beaches will continue to stay in the low
to mid 70's.

marine... A moderate to strong west to northwest flow will prevail
over the marine area tonight as high pressure builds into the
western and central gulf behind the frontal passage. A small craft
advisory will continue until 7 pm for area bays and sounds where
winds around 20 knots are expected before gradually diminishing this
evening. A stronger west to northwest flow and elevated seas up to 6-
9 feet will support keeping a small craft advisory over the coastal
waters through late tonight. Surface high pressure will build from
the central gulf of mexico Thursday to the eastern gulf and fl
peninsula Friday through early next week. Moderate westerly flow
Thursday should gradually become southerly to southwesterly Friday
through Monday. Seas also gradually subside late this week into the
weekend. 21

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk until 7 pm cdt this evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk until 7 pm cdt this evening for flz202-204-

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 am cdt Thursday for gmz650-655-670-

Small craft advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for gmz631-632.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi45 min 72°F 80°F1005.2 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi45 min W 8 71°F 1005.8 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi45 min 79°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi85 min NW 19 G 25 75°F 78°F4 ft1003.9 hPa (+0.9)55°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 46 mi75 min WNW 19 74°F 1004.4 hPa (+1.0)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 50 mi45 min WNW 8.9 70°F 1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi19 minVar 510.00 miA Few Clouds67°F55°F66%1003.9 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi19 minWNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds65°F53°F66%1004 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi22 minWNW 810.00 miFair70°F52°F53%1005.5 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi77 minN 010.00 miFair71°F47°F45%1004.2 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi19 minWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F50°F51%1005.7 hPa

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
Last 24hr44SW453S3NW3CalmNW3NW44W7W7W9
1 day agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmE4E4SE3S9SW75
2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmN4E4E333SW7S7S6CalmSW3SW4S43CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
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Wed -- 05:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:41 AM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:24 PM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:03 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:39 AM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.