Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 4:51PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:09 AM CST (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:15AMMoonset 6:20PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 305 Am Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft should exercise caution this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 13 to 18 knots. A moderate chop becoming choppy.
Tonight..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northwest 18 to 23 knots. Choppy becoming choppy to rough. Chance of showers.
Sunday..North winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Choppy to rough becoming choppy.
Sunday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Choppy becoming a light chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Monday night..East winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 305 Am Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to shift east to the eastern seaboard and western atlantic through Saturday in response to a strong cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move across the marine area late tonight through Sunday morning leading to a strong offshore flow occurring throughout most of the day on Sunday. Northerly winds and seas will gradually subside Sunday night through early Monday. Frequent gusts to gale force, occurring mostly over the open gulf waters, will also be possible in the wake of the front early Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 181206 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
606 am cst Sat nov 18 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance...VFR ceilings expected today ahead of an approaching
cold front that will bring vcsh to the area this evening.

Southerly winds will increase to around 12 to 16 knots this
afternoon. Northerly winds will develop behind the front tonight.

13

Prev discussion issued 515 am cst Sat nov 18 2017
near term now through Saturday night ... Surface high pressure
will weaken and shift eastward today as an upper trough and
associated cold front approach the area. Ahead of the front,
southerly winds will increase today as the pressure gradient
increases between the high to the east and the cold front to the
west. Clouds will increase and moisture levels increase as
southerly flow transports a warm and moist gulf airmass across the
area. Rain chances begin to increase late this afternoon across
northwest zones as the front approaches. Rain will move southeast
across the area ahead of the front through the overnight hours.

Thunderstorms are not expected due to weak instability and
rainfall totals are expected to remain light. A much colder and
drier airmass will begin to flow into the area in the wake of the
front early Sunday morning.

Highs today will be well above normal, into the mid and upper 70s.

Lows tonight will range from the low 40s across northwest zones to
low 50s across the southeast. 13
short term Sunday through Monday night ... Much colder and drier
air sweeps into the region in the wake of the frontal passage on
Saturday night. As high pressure at the surface builds into the
southeast, winds generally begin to relax by Sunday evening. High
temperatures on Sunday will struggle to reach the upper 50s inland
while closer to 60 near the coast. The coldest temperatures of the
short and long term will occur overnight Sunday into early Monday
morning as clear skies and light winds provide a good set-up for
radiational cooling across inland locations. Temperatures will
quickly slip into the mid 30s across much of the area, while
remaining near 40 right along the beaches. Inland locations across
southeast mississippi and southwest alabama could see temperatures
dipping below freezing for 3-4 hours on Monday prior to sunrise.

Wind chill values for most inland locations dip below 30 for several
hours early Monday morning. After coordination with surrounding
offices, currently plan to hold off on the issuance of a freeze
watch warning and will re-assess on the afternoon package. Despite
the cold start to the day on Monday, temperatures should rebound
into the low 60s that afternoon. Lows on Monday night will fall into
the upper 30s to low 40s across the region. 07 mb
long term Tuesday through Friday ... High pressure at the surface
departs the region and moves off the east coast Tuesday morning.

Another front swings through the region overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday which will lead to the beginning of the unsettled weather
pattern. This dry front will lead to cooler temperatures through the
mid and latter part of the week.

Rain chances rise across the southern portion of the area as a
shortwave kicks out of the central part of the CONUS by mid-week.

There is still noticeable disagreement between the models in terms
of rainfall, however, the models are somewhat agreeing on the
formation of a surface low over the gulf by mid-week. The eventual
location of the upper trough and surface low features will be the
big factors in the precipitation forecast. The euro now keeps the
bulk of the rain offshore during the week as it sends the shortwave
down into the southwestern part of the gulf as the upper level
trough rotates through the gulf late in the week. The GFS has turned
into the wetter solution as it produces a closed upper low that
rotates through the region on Wednesday before quickly moving off
toward the east coast on Thursday. This solution keeps the eastern
portion of the area, especially the florida panhandle, wet both
days. Run to run consistency is lacking (to say the least) at this
point, so confidence is still relatively low. In terms of pops - any
rain on Tuesday looks to be across the southern portion of the area,
while rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday are generally east of
the i-65 corridor.

Surface high pressure builds back into the area late in the week
through the early part of the weekend, which will allow daytime
temperatures to rebound back into the 60s. 07 mb
marine... High pressure will continue to shift east to the eastern
seaboard and western atlantic through Saturday in response to a
strong cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will
move across the marine area late tonight through Sunday morning
leading to a strong offshore flow occurring throughout most of the
day on Sunday. Northerly winds and seas will gradually subside
Sunday night through early Monday. Frequent gusts to gale force,
occurring mostly over the open gulf waters, will also be possible
in the wake of the front early Sunday. 13

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Gale watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for gmz650-
670-675.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to midnight cst
tonight for gmz650-670-675.

Small craft advisory from 9 am to 6 pm cst Sunday for gmz650-670-
675.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday
for gmz630>635-655.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 35 mi70 min 71°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.0)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 45 mi85 min 59°F 1014 hPa58°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 46 mi100 min SSE 5.1 70°F 1014.6 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 50 mi70 min ESE 4.1 67°F 1014.9 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi74 minSE 610.00 miA Few Clouds62°F55°F78%1014 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi4.2 hrsESE 45.00 miFog/Mist55°F55°F100%1013.9 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi77 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F63°F81%1015.2 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair57°F55°F96%1015.1 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi74 minS 8 miOvercast71°F64°F81%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE533NE3CalmCalmSE4S7S6S3CalmCalmS4S3SE3SE5SE4SE3SE3SE5SE4SE5SE6SE3
1 day agoCalmN6N34N7NE5N3N6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN4NE4NE4NE4CalmCalmNE6CalmNE5
2 days agoE8SE7Calm4Calm3N6NE4NE4N4NE6E5N3NE3CalmCalmNE3CalmE3NE3CalmCalmN3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:14 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:16 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM CST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:20 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:49 PM CST     1.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.51.41.10.90.70.40.20.10000.10.20.30.50.60.80.91.11.31.41.61.6

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:15 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:17 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:53 AM CST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:21 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:33 PM CST     1.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.41.20.90.60.40.20-0-0.1-000.20.30.40.60.811.21.41.51.71.81.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.