Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:04PM Friday March 24, 2017 8:50 PM CDT (01:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:29AMMoonset 3:44PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 258 Pm Cdt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft exercise caution...
Tonight..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy.
Saturday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Choppy becoming choppy to rough. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Choppy to rough becoming a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A light chop becoming a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 258 Pm Cdt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis..Strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard combined with a deep area of low pressure to the west will help lead to a strong southerly wind flow over the marine area through Saturday evening. Showers and Thunderstorms...a few strong to possibly severe...can be expected Saturday and Saturday evening ahead of the low pressure area approaching from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 242338
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
638 pm cdt Fri mar 24 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance...VFR to MVFR ceilings expected tonight with
southeasterly winds relaxing to around 10 knots. Gusty southerly
winds redevelop by 25.16z as showers and thunderstorms approach
from the west. Exact timing of the heaviest thunderstorm activity
remains uncertain, but current guidance has the most concentrated
activity moving west to east across the local area from 25.18z
into the first few hours of the following forecast period. /49

Prev discussion /issued 337 pm cdt Fri mar 24 2017/
near term /now through Saturday/... An upper low over the ok/tx
panhandle moves east, to over the mid mississippi river valley
tonight through Saturday. The associated surface low moves east over
the plains until it reaches the mississippi river Saturday morning,
then meanders north. Even with a bit of weakening in the organization
of the system as it wobbles eastward, the forecast is kept under
moderate to strong onshore flow through the first 24hrs of the
forecast. Winds today have been bumping advisory criteria, but
have been showing a slow downward trend through the day.

Overnight, with the onshore flow continuing and overcast skies, am
expecting overnight temps to remain well above seasonal levels. With
winds remaining on the moderate side, am expecting mostly stratus
with little fog development. As the system moves towards the area
overnight, showers and a few thunderstorms will being to move
over far western portions of the forecast area and mainly towards
sunrise. Lows overnight are expected to range from the upper 50s
northeast to mid 60s along the coast and southwest.

Saturday, the possibility of severe weather continues as the upper
system works its way to the mississippi river. A lobe of energy
swings around the base of the main system as it begins a northeast
jog Saturday afternoon. With MUCAPE values topping out around
1500j/kg, plus or minus, coming together with 0-3km helicity values
of 100-200m^2/s^2. Add in mid and upper level enhancement from jet
maxes along the shortwave lobe swinging around the main upper lobe
and moving over the lower mississippi river valley and SPC has put
essentially the entire fa under a slight risk, with better chances
for severe west of a greenville al to pensacola fl line. With
good rotational wind shear, some organized rotating cells mixing
in with the band of storms as the move across the forecast area
Saturday will bring mainly damaging winds, though a tornado can
not be ruled out, although this threat appears to be very limited
at this time. Mid level lapse rates up to around 6.8 c/km Saturday
afternoon, so the risk of large hail will also continue with the
stronger updrafts. Timing with the current guidance has the band
moving into the western portions of the forecast area late
morning into early afternoon, continuing east across the remainder
of the forecast area during the late afternoon and then weakening
and moving east of the area by mid/late evening. Not to forget,
high temps Saturday generally in the mid 70s.

16/sam
short term /Saturday night through Monday night/... Upper trof
axis shifts east of our area by midnight Saturday (06z Sunday),
with surface trof still lagging back to the west. With this the
potential for strong/severe storms diminishes and ends during the
evening hours Saturday, although some lingering showers and storms
will remain possible into late Saturday night. Forecast area
between systems on Sunday, then another weather system moves
rapidly east across the interior eastern portion of the country
late Monday through Monday night, brining another chance for
showers and storms. For now, any severe threat with that over our
area looks very limited. Overnight lows in the lower 60s through
the period, daytime highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. 12/ds
long term /Tuesday through Friday/... Very progressive pattern
continues through long term period. Previously mentioned system
departs to the east by midday Tuesday with a brief period of
ridging over the forecast area Wednesday before yet another system
approaches from the west by early Thursday. Some indications that
this late week system may have the potential to be a little more
dynamic than previous few, and will have to monitor. Primary
affects over our area at this point look to be late Thursday into
early Friday. Daytime highs remaining above normal, mainly in the
upper 70s and lower 80s through the period. Likewise for overnight
lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. 12/ds
marine... An approaching system from the west combined with a
surface ridge stretching southwest along the east coast will
continue to create moderate to strong onshore flow into Sunday
before becoming lighter. A small craft advisory remains in effect
for most of the marine area, and has now been extended through
7pm Saturday evening. Flow will remain onshore through the
forecast, with another system passing Monday night. This system
will bring a slight increase in the winds once again late Monday
into Monday night. 16/sam

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... High rip current risk through late Saturday night for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through late Saturday night for flz202-204-
206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt Saturday for gmz631-632-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 7 69°F 69°F1024.3 hPa (-0.4)
PPTA1 35 mi50 min ESE 12 68°F 1023 hPa (-1.4)
WBYA1 44 mi50 min 73°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi60 min ESE 16 G 19 69°F 69°F6 ft1023.3 hPa (+0.0)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 45 mi65 min 67°F 63°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 50 mi50 min ESE 8 68°F 1023.7 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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SE1
G4
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G6
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NE2
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G12
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G10
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NE2
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NW4
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G13
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NE6
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SW7
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N4
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N5
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S2
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi54 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast68°F60°F76%1022.9 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi54 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast64°F57°F81%1023 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi57 minSSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F60°F73%1024.3 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi52 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F58°F73%1023.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi1.9 hrsESE 1110.00 miOvercast68°F61°F78%1024.1 hPa

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7SE9SE10SE10SE10SE12SE12SE9E7E10E10SE11SE13
G20
SE14SE17
G24
SE18
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SE16
G20
S13
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S13S9S11S5
1 day agoN7N7NE8NE7NE8NE9NE8NE9NE9NE7E6E4E6SE9SE9
G15
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SE12SE9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalm3SW33Calm3CalmNW4NW6NW5N6NW4N8N11N8
G16
N9NW8N5
G16
5NW7N6N10

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM CDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:44 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:57 PM CDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.110.80.60.40.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.11.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:37 AM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:00 PM CDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.90.70.40.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.100.10.30.40.50.60.70.911.11.21.31.31.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.