Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 7:56PM Friday June 22, 2018 9:30 PM CDT (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 2:10AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 855 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 22 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 855 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 22 2018
Synopsis..High pressure ridging into the central and southern gulf will gradually build northward by the end of the weekend into early next week. This will result in the current moderate onshore wind diminishing by the end of the weekend. Seas will also begin to subside of over the gulf waters by the end of the weekend in response to the decreasing winds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 222322
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
622 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over central
mississippi will continue to make its way southeast into the local
area through late this evening. This activity will eventually
dissipate and give way toVFR conditions overnight tonight.

Exception may be some MVFR CIGS near the coast right around
sunrise. Otherwise,VFR conditions and light southwest winds
continue through the remainder of the period. 49

Prev discussion issued 333 pm cdt Fri jun 22 2018
near term now through Saturday ... A seasonably very pronounced and
deeply-reflected cyclone currently over the ohio valley lifts
further to the northeast during the next 24 hours. The net effect is
that our region remains, at first (i.E., the first 12 h) within a
zonal flow and then gradually developing deep-layer ridging by late
Saturday afternoon. The first thing to deal with is intense to
severe thunderstorms (mainly north of highway 84) will decay as they
attempt to propagate southward against a deep-layer mean zonal flow.

There is enough vertical wind shear for some of these storms to
evolve upscale and exhibit multicellular traits, and with forecast
downdraft-induced cold pools, some may even bow a bit into the
evening hours. In addition, dry air aloft will aid downdraft
acceleration. Very localized wind damage will be the main threat.

Ample thermodynamic instability will wane during the evening hours.

Best rain chances remain along and north of highway 84 this evening
and this shifts to north of highway 84 and east of i-65 overnight.

Partly cloudy elsewhere. Another warm and muggy night in store. On
Saturday, there is a very small chance of rain along the ms al
coastal zones (near the sea-breeze and mainly along the i-10
corridor). Receiving any rain will be the exception rather than the
rule. Heat indices will rise into the 98-103 deg(f) range again
tomorrow afternoon.

23 jmm
short term Saturday night through Monday night ... An upper level
ridge builds over the southeast into the coming week, shifting a
surface ridge from over the central gulf to over the northern
gulf coast. During the building process, bands of drier air work
their way across the forecast area, and with high pressure in
control, rain chances decrease. Increasing subsidence with the
building high brings temps above seasonal. Adding in the
remaining low level moisture over the area, daytime heat indices
generally rising to around 105 are likely, with a few localities
bumping heat advisory levels (108+), especially on Monday.

16
long term Tuesday through Friday ... The upper high over the
southeast lasts into Wednesday, then begins to shift west as
shortwave energy begins to dig an upper trough over the northeastern
conus. At this point in the forecast, guidance diverges
significantly in the upper pattern over the east, with the gfs
developing a surface low centered over tennessee by Thursday,
lasting through Friday before moving off. This squeezes the upper
level ridge southward to over the northern gulf coast. The ecmwf
on the other hand shifts the upper high from over the desert
southwest to over the central mississippi river valley through the
week before moving off the end of the week as a shallow upper
trough develops over the northern gulf coast. The ECMWF advertises
a stronger upper level high pressure over the lower mississippi
river valley and western half of the southeast. With that, warmer
temps through Thursday before the upper trough becomes dominant.

Low level flow remains off the gulf and with the warmer temps
comes around seasonal chance of rain. The GFS advertises a bit
cooler significantly drier solution. Have went with a blended
approach in above seasonal temps continuing through mid week, then
cooling to around to a bit below seasonal. The chance of rain
increases to around to a bit above seasonal by the end the week.

Very high heat indices look to be a problem through Wednesday
before decreasing a bit with the cooler temps.

16
marine... A surface ridge stretching west over the central gulf
will shift north to the northern gulf coast early in the coming week,
shifting general southwest to west winds to southeasterly. A passing
system will bring generally moderate flow into Sunday, then ease to a
light to at times moderate. Increased seas will ease Sunday night
into Monday.

16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi48 min WSW 8 G 12 84°F 86°F1012.6 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi60 min 83°F 1012.5 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi42 min 89°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi40 min SW 16 G 19 84°F 4 ft1012.5 hPa77°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 45 mi105 min 84°F 1011 hPa75°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 50 mi60 min SSW 13 84°F 1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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NW2
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi34 minSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F75°F82%1010.9 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi34 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F75°F82%1010.9 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi37 minWSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds83°F73°F74%1012.7 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi94 minSW 910.00 miFair83°F76°F81%1011.6 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi34 minWSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F73°F72%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33CalmCalmNW66646W8SW9W9
G16
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G16
6SW835SW4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W5CalmCalmS4S9SW5
G15
SW855W9
G17
4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW3NW3NW4NW4CalmE4W33Calm6W53SW3SW3SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:11 AM CDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:08 AM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:01 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:27 PM CDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.60.60.70.80.911.11.21.21.21.21.110.80.70.60.50.40.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:13 AM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:10 AM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:39 PM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.60.70.80.911.21.31.31.31.21.110.80.60.50.40.30.30.30.30.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.