Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:48PM Thursday September 20, 2018 4:16 AM CDT (09:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:27PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 400 Am Cdt Thu Sep 20 2018
Today..Winds light becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 400 Am Cdt Thu Sep 20 2018
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will slowly build from the northeast through early next week. A weak upper level disturbance will move west across the central and lower gulf over the weekend and into early next week. Better coverage of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected with this pattern Friday through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 200859
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
359 am cdt Thu sep 20 2018

Near term now through Thursday night A weak upper level
shortwave over the northeast gulf of mexico will move west over
the north central gulf through tonight. The large upper high
pressure system over the southeast CONUS will persist, with the
center over eastern kentucky drifting east to near the north
carolina coast. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure ridge along the
eastern seaboard will continue to strengthen bringing a more
persistent light southerly wind flow to the forecast area.

The high pressure pattern will suppress much of the convective
activity today with only isolated showers and thunderstorms popping
up randomly across the forecast area this afternoon due to
decreasing stability. Strong insolation throughout the day will
allow surface temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s, and when
combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat index
values ranging from 100 to 105 degrees. Mainly dry conditions are
set for the overnight hours. However a few isolated showers or
storms may remain east of i-65. 22

Short term Friday through Saturday night A vigorous upper
shortwave trough over the northern plains states pushes east into
the great lakes region to start the short term. This in turn
pushes the upper ridge situated over the eastern seaboard out over
the western atlantic. Along the southern periphery of this ridge,
a weak upper low retrogrades westward from the florida peninsula
into the eastern gulf. At the surface, high pressure persists over
the western atlantic, ridging southwest into the southeastern u.S.

And northern gulf. This maintains a moist southeast flow off the
gulf across the local area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
on Friday, aided by a deeply moist and unstable airmass and a
weak region of diffluent flow aloft. Focus should start along the
sea breeze during the morning as it begins to push inland,
followed by a more scattered coverage across our inland areas
during the afternoon and evening. Have maintained ~30% pops across
much of the area to reflect this.

As the aforementioned upper shortwave continues to push east into
eastern canada, a weak ridge aloft and broad surface high pressure
build over the plains in its wake. This pushes a weak front
southeast towards the mississippi river valley where it stalls
Saturday. Southeast of this front, a warm and moist southeasterly
flow continues off the gulf in the low levels. Upper level flow
improves over the area and shifts to northeasterly between the
weak upper low over the eastern gulf and an upper ridge building
from mexico northeast over texas and la ms. As a result, more
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across much of
the area Saturday afternoon. Best rain chances (30-40%) will be
near the coast and over the western half of our area where a
deeper plume of moisture will reside. 49

Long term Sunday through Wednesday The upper level flow
pattern amplifies late this weekend into early next week as a
broad trough develops across much of the central CONUS and an
upper ridge remains anchored over the western atlantic. The upper
low over the gulf of mexico pushes southwest towards the yucatan
peninsula by Monday, with a weak upper ridge extending from
southeastern texas northeast over the local area in its wake. This
brings typical summertime thunderstorm chances (~30%) and
temperatures (upper 80s to low 90s) to the area on Sunday. The
weak ridge then breaks down and is replaced by deep-layer
southwesterly flow by midweek as the trough over the central conus
deepens and begins to shift east. This brings a more unsettled
weather pattern to the region Monday through Wednesday, with
higher rain chances (50-60%) in the forecast each afternoon. The
increase in clouds and rain could help high temperatures return to
more seasonal levels (mid to upper 80s). There continues to be
some hope in the extended range for a cold front to push through
sometime late next week, but this feature is still too far out to
forecast with much certainty. 49

Marine Surface high pressure will slowly build from the northeast
through early next week. A weak upper level disturbance will move
west across the central and lower gulf over the weekend and into
early next week. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected with this pattern Friday through early next week. 22

Preliminary point temps pops
Mobile 92 74 91 73 90 71 89 72 20 10 30 20 30 20 30 30
pensacola 91 76 89 75 89 73 88 75 20 10 30 10 30 20 40 40
destin 90 78 88 76 88 75 87 77 20 30 30 10 30 20 40 40
evergreen 94 72 91 71 91 69 90 71 20 20 30 20 30 10 40 20
waynesboro 93 71 90 71 89 69 88 70 20 10 20 20 30 20 30 20
camden 94 72 90 72 90 70 90 71 20 20 30 20 20 10 30 20
crestview 94 73 90 71 90 69 90 72 20 20 30 10 30 20 40 30

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi41 min 82°F 87°F1015 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi47 min 85°F 1014.2 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi35 min 86°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi27 min S 5.8 G 7.8 85°F 1 ft1014.8 hPa78°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 45 mi92 min 1015 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 50 mi47 min Calm 80°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi81 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds76°F75°F100%1013.5 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi81 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist75°F75°F100%1013.6 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair78°F75°F90%1015.1 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi81 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist77°F75°F96%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE6E4E33N3SE4S5S4CalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW33Calm53CalmS3CalmE3CalmE3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8E15CalmSW3S5S4SE4S4S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.