Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairhope, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 7:46PM Thursday May 24, 2018 8:40 PM CDT (01:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:14PMMoonset 3:00AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 335 Pm Cdt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming light. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Winds light becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Northeast winds 18 to 23 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 25 to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 30 to 35 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 335 Pm Cdt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis..A light to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue over the marine area through Friday. Easterly winds and seas will begin to build by Saturday and continue into early next week in response to a developing area of low pressure tracking northward over the central gulf of mexico. Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expect Saturday through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairhope, AL
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location: 30.57, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 242315
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
615 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance... Residual afternoon tsra will last into the evening
hours, affecting mainly approaches to area TAF sites, though with
the outflow driven nature of the current activity, another tsra
or two may affect TAF sites proper. Am expecting the activity to
decrease through the evening into the overnight hours, then
redevelop during the morning hours Friday. Local drops in
cigs visbys to MVFR levels expected, with greater coverage making
navigation around the individual storms more difficult.

16

Prev discussion issued 410 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
near term now through Friday night ... A weak upper level
trough drifts slowly east over the gulf of mexico through the near
term. At the surface, high pressure persists over the western
atlantic and maintains light east to southeast winds along the
central gulf coast. Thunderstorms gradually dissipate after dark
this evening, with some isolated showers possible overnight
tonight, particularly offshore and along any remnant outflow
boundaries. Expect summer- like temperatures and diurnal
thunderstorm activity on Friday, similar to what has been
occurring over the past week. Convection redevelops Friday morning
and afternoon as temperatures climb into the upper 80s. Stronger
cells will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and possibly some small hail. With steering flow still
lacking, storm coverage and motion will depend on outflow
boundaries and the inland-advancing sea breeze. With onshore flow
and swell increasing, there is a high risk for dangerous rip
currents along all area beaches beginning Friday. Storms will
decrease in coverage Friday night as daytime heating shuts down,
with only isolated to widely scattered activity lingering
overnight into Saturday morning. 49
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... A very active
period is in store for the area. The weak upper trof extending
from the central gulf into the north central gulf coast will
continue to play an important role in steering an anticipated
system northward across the gulf. Guidance has come into even
better agreement on this system, after advertising the development
and northward movement of this feature for the past several days.

The surface low is currently moving northward over the eastern
yucatan peninsula and the national hurricane center has a high
(90%) chance of tropical cyclone development through 5 days. Based
on a consensus of guidance (which is in itself in good
agreement), the surface low is expected to be located just north
of the yucatan peninsula Saturday morning then progress northward
across the gulf through Sunday night, to be located near the
southern portion of the marine area. Given that this system is
going to produce copious rainfall over the central gulf coast
region, a flash flood watch is in effect for the southern portion
of the area from Saturday evening on into the long term period. In
addition, sufficient confidence now exists to support a high surf
advisory and a coastal flood watch from 1 pm Saturday into the
long term period. Likely to categorical pops follow through the
period. Here are the latest details regarding impacts for our
area:
flash flood risk - confidence: high. Timing: from Saturday evening
through Tuesday evening. Affected area: the southern portion of
the area including extreme southeast mississippi, extreme
southwest alabama and the western florida panhandle. The flash
flood watch will likely need to be expanded northward on
subsequent shifts.

Coastal flooding - confidence: high. Timing: with onshore swell
and increasing onshore winds, the period from Saturday afternoon
into Tuesday evening has the potential for coastal flooding. A
coastal flood watch has been issued for this period with water
levels of 2 to 4 feet mean high higher water is expected. The
time of maximum coastal water rises looks to be Sunday continuing
into Sunday night.

High surf - confidence: high. Timing: from Saturday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Surf heights of 5 feet or more will result in
beach erosion. A high surf advisory has been issued for this
period.

Rip currents - confidence: high. A high risk of rip currents
remains in effect through the period.

Wind - confidence: low. Timing: this has been delayed a bit, but
strong winds around 30 mph are possible mainly over the coastal
portions mainly Sunday night. This depends entirely on the
movement and strength of the gulf system.

Severe storm potential - confidence: low. Timing: beginning as
early as Saturday night then increasing potential through Sunday
night. This depends on the movement and strength of the gulf
system.

29
long term Monday through Thursday ... Large impacts are possible
for the area with flash flooding, coastal flooding, and strong
winds. The low pressure system (likely as a tropical system) will
linger over the central gulf coast area and gradually weaken
Monday into Tuesday, then move away from the area. Impacts
regarding wind and severe storm potential will depend on the
movement and strength of the system, which makes them difficult to
assess. However, potential wind and severe storm impacts do exist
and will be carefully monitored. With the slow movement of this
system, we have high confidence that very heavy rainfall will
occur over much of the area and a flash flood watch remains in
effect through Tuesday at least for the southern portion of the
area. The flash flood watch may need to be expanded northward. In
general, storm total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with
locally higher amounts of 12 to 15 inches, are possible roughly
over the southern portion of the area. Further inland, storm total
rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible. A coastal flood
watch and a high surf advisory continue for the coastal areas
through early Tuesday evening. Categorical pops continue through
Tuesday, with likely pops Wednesday into Thursday. Stay tuned for
updates! 29
marine... A light to moderate onshore flow continues through Friday
night as high pressure persists over the western atlantic and
eastern gulf of mexico. A developing surface low near the yucatan
peninsula gradually moves northeast into the central and eastern
gulf through the weekend and into early next week. The national
hurricane center has labeled this disturbance invest 90l and gives
it a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days per
the latest update. Expect winds and seas to dramatically increase
over the local marine area Sunday and Monday as this system
approaches. Stay tuned for further updates regarding this system.

Please visit our webpage (

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 8 mi40 min E 5.1 79°F 1017.6 hPa (+1.4)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 10 mi55 min 78°F 1017 hPa70°F
PTOA1 11 mi40 min 80°F 72°F
WBYA1 11 mi40 min 86°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 12 mi70 min WSW 11 83°F 1016.9 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 12 mi40 min N 6 G 8 78°F 83°F1017.6 hPa (+1.6)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 13 mi40 min 80°F 83°F1017.7 hPa (+1.9)
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 17 mi70 min SSW 8 83°F 1016.6 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 23 mi70 min SW 8.9 83°F 1016.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi40 min WSW 7 G 8.9 82°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 25 mi40 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 82°F 1017.1 hPa (+0.9)72°F
PPTA1 26 mi40 min 82°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.7)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 29 mi70 min WSW 8.9 82°F 1016.9 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 33 mi55 min WSW 5.1 82°F 1018 hPa73°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 36 mi40 min NNW 7 G 9.9 81°F 85°F1017.4 hPa (+1.2)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi30 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 1016.8 hPa75°F
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi40 min 85°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 42 mi40 min SW 6 G 7 82°F 1018 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL8 mi65 minENE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F84%1017.3 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL12 mi47 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F73°F82%1018.1 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL22 mi44 minN 1010.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity76°F70°F82%1018 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL22 mi65 minN 010.00 miThunderstorm79°F72°F82%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from CQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8CalmN4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE5NE3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmW5SW4S5SW4CalmCalmNE16
G19
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW5CalmS4SW3E8CalmCalmNE12
G15
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmW6CalmSW4S6S6SW3S6S3S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama
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Great Point Clear
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:28 AM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM CDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:14 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.50.50.50.50.60.60.70.80.911110.90.90.90.90.80.80.80.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:00 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:25 AM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:10 PM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:14 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.70.60.50.50.50.50.60.70.80.911.11.11.111110.90.90.90.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.