Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairhope, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 5:46PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:38 AM CST (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 9:42AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 935 Am Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 am cst Saturday...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Widespread dense fog late in the morning, then areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers late in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Areas of dense fog.
Saturday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 935 Am Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue over the marine area through early Saturday night ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front is expected to move across the marine area Saturday night and early Sunday leading to a moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow through Monday. Dense fog will continue over the near shore waters of alabama and northwest florida out to 20 nautical miles from shore, including all inland bays and sounds, through tonight.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairhope, AL
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location: 30.57, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 221145 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
545 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance... Lifr to vlifr CIGS and visibilities through about
22.16z followed by MVFR CIGS and visibilities through 23.03z then
gradually lowering to lifr to vlifr CIGS and visibilities through
23.12z. Lower CIGS and visibilities mainly in low stratus and fog
through early sat. Winds will continue from the southeast at 5 to
10 knots through 23.12z. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 519 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
near term now through Friday night ... Main concern for today
and tonight will be widespread dense fog occurring over much of
the lower half of the forecast area through noon today reforming
again this evening and overnight. A dense advisory remains in
effect for much of the lower half of the forecast area through
noon today and will likely be reissued in some areas tonight. Rain
chances, mostly in the form of showers, will be similiar to
yesterday with the best coverage occurring over inland areas of
southeast ms stretching eastward over interior sections of
southwest al generally north of the i-10 corridor. This precip is
mostly from weak isentropic lift on the west side of a broad mid
to upper ridge located to the east southeast combined with a
stalled frontal boundary leading to better moisture convergence
stretching from the central louisiana coast to parts of south
central al including extreme northern parts of the forecast area
today lifting northward overnight. Increased lift in the mid to
upper levels is also noted due to a continued series of weak
perturbations tracking northeast across the lower ms river valley
and north central gulf states through tonight.

Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal levels possibly
reaching near record levels this afternoon. Highs today will range
from the upper 70s to lower 80s for most inland areas and the middle
70s along the immediate coast. Lows tonight will range from the mid
to upper 60s for most areas. 32 ee
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... A southwest mid to
upper level flow pattern will continue across our forecast area on
Saturday between a ridge of high pressure stretching from the
bahamas to the southern florida peninsula and a potent negatively
tilted upper level trough that will eject northeastward from the
texas and oklahoma panhandles to the central plains states. A
strong 500 mb jet on the order of 100-110 knots is still forecast
to translate toward the mid-mississippi valley in advance of the
ejecting trough on Saturday, while a surface cold front progresses
eastward toward the mississippi valley region. Strong jet dynamics
will likely aid in the development of an organized squall line
crossing the mississippi river valley and into central and
northern portions of ms through Saturday afternoon, before pushing
eastward across the tennessee valley and northern portions of
alabama into Saturday evening. Our forecast area will remain on
the southern fringe of the stronger dynamics associated with this
system, but the tail end of the linear complex looks on track to
push into our southeast ms and southwest al counties late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening, and then eastward across south
central alabama and the western florida panhandle by late Saturday
night. 40-50 knots of 850 mb flow spreading across southeast ms
into adjacent southwest alabama, along with a modestly unstable
airmass with up to 500 j kg MLCAPE will support a marginal risk of
severe weather across locations generally along and northwest of
the interstate 65 corridor late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening with a low end potential for localized damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado with any embedded rotating cells. The
severe threat should diminish late Saturday evening into Saturday
night as low level dynamics weaken and instability wanes along the
advancing frontal boundary. Rainfall amounts look rather meager
with this event with latest QPF values averaging between one tenth
and one quarter inch, although locally higher amounts up to around
1 inch will be possible with any localized heavier rainfall.

Patchy fog may develop near the coast Saturday evening but should
diminish following the passage of the front late. The warm onshore
flow will promote near record warmth again Saturday afternoon with
highs in the mid to upper 70s near the coast and in the lower 80s
inland. Cooler temperatures return behind the front Saturday
night.

A lingering slight chance of light rain over our far southeastern
zones early Sunday morning quickly ends as a much drier airmass
spreads across our region in the wake of the frontal passage.

Mostly clear skies are expected by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures
will be cooler Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 60s over our
western zones, with lower 70s farther east. Lows Sunday night will
average near normal for a change with readings ranging from
around 40 to the mid 40s over the interior and in the upper 40s to
around 50 near the immediate coast. 21
long term Monday through Thursday ... A cool and dry pattern will
continue on Monday underneath zonal flow aloft. Rain chances will
increase by Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of an approaching
shortwave over the northern gulf of mexico. There is still some
disparity on the depth of moisture through the middle to latter
part of the week, as the operational GFS remains much wetter for
our area than the ecmwf, which keeps the bulk of moisture well
south of our region Wednesday and Thursday. Will keep a blended
approach to pops going for now, with a low end chance of rain
showers remaining in the forecast Wednesday into Thursday. 21
marine... A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue over
the marine area through early Sat night ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. The cold front is expected to move across
the marine area Sat night and early Sun leading to a moderate to
occasionally strong offshore flow through Monday. Dense fog will
continue over the near shore waters of alabama and northwest florida
out to 20 nautical miles from shore, including all inland bays and
sounds, through tonight. A dense fog advisory will continue over the
marine area through tonight and could be extended into Sat due to
a persistent onshore flow through Sat afternoon. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for alz261>266.

High rip current risk through this afternoon for alz265-266.

Fl... Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for flz201>206.

High rip current risk through this afternoon for flz202-204-206.

Ms... Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for msz078-079.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 6 am cst Saturday for gmz630>636-650-
655.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 10 mi114 min 70°F 1020 hPa69°F
WBYA1 11 mi45 min 71°F
PTOA1 11 mi45 min 67°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 12 mi45 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 67°F 62°F1020.5 hPa
MBPA1 12 mi45 min 66°F 66°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 13 mi45 min 70°F 58°F1020.4 hPa
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 17 mi99 min ESE 9.9 68°F 1019.6 hPa (+1.7)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 23 mi69 min E 8.9 66°F 1020 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 25 mi39 min E 12 G 14 67°F 1019.6 hPa (+1.4)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi45 min ESE 15 G 18 67°F 1019.9 hPa
GBRM6 31 mi99 min 69°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 33 mi114 min E 8 68°F 1020 hPa68°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 36 mi45 min ESE 1 G 2.9 67°F 64°F1021.2 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi39 min E 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 1020.7 hPa (+1.7)66°F
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi45 min 65°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 42 mi45 min ESE 11 G 14 67°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL8 mi44 minESE 510.00 miOvercast70°F69°F100%1020.3 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL12 mi46 minSE 97.00 miOvercast70°F69°F97%1020.5 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL22 mi43 minSE 90.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist70°F70°F100%1020.3 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL22 mi64 minE 55.00 miOvercast with Haze0°F0°F%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from CQF (wind in knots)
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S9SE6SE5SE7SE5SE6SE5SE4SE6SE6SE6SE5CalmCalmE3E3SE5SE6E7
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S9S9S8S7S6S5S6S5CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama
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Great Point Clear
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:58 AM CST     0.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:47 AM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:09 PM CST     0.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:22 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:22 PM CST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.20.30.30.40.50.60.60.60.60.60.50.50.40.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:01 AM CST     0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:44 AM CST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:12 PM CST     0.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:45 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:22 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:19 PM CST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.