Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 1:16 AM   Moonset 11:27 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay-southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 336 Am Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this morning and early afternoon. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 336 Am Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis - Strong winds that resulted from a wake low Monday evening are rapidly subsiding over the marine area. Winds will continue to decrease this morning, with a light southwesterly flow anticipated by this afternoon. High pressure passing over the area midweek will lead lighter and more variable winds. A light onshore flow will then develop over the marine area for the latter part of the week and into the early part of the weekend.

FXUS64 KMOB 300454 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Rain will end from west to east through Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings expected overnight with VFR conditions developing Tuesday morning and continuing through the remainder of the period. /13

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 1005 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/

EVENING UPDATE

UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A line of showers continues to weaken as it moves eastward across areas near the coast and offshore. The main upper level shortwave will move across later this evening and overnight and a few near term models are hinting at some redevelopment of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Due to the uncertainty with redevelopment, have opted to leave POPs as is overnight. A wake low behind the line of showers and thunderstorms caused wind speeds to ramp up immediately behind the rain and we issued a Small Craft Advisory for the marine zones though 2AM. Also, considered a wind advisory for areas near the coast, but held off due to the short time range of the event. In fact, current obs are already showing wind speeds coming back down. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/

New AVIATION

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A line of showers with mainly light rain continues to slowly move east across the area this evening. Lighter rainfall will affect JKA and PNS as the convective line weakens between 00z and 06z as it moves into Baldwin County. VFR conditions develop by Tuesday afternoon. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A vigorous shortwave trough axis will slide through the forecast area tonight. In advance of this trough axis, a band of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms currently moving through the western portion of the CWA will continue to advance eastward across the remainder of Lower Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle tonight into tomorrow morning. At this time, any rainfall should remain on the lighter side as the convective line continues to weaken. Have largely stuck with NBM PoP values resulting in chance to likely PoP over the area tonight.
Temperatures will remain mild and overall temperature spread is low between the various model solutions. Given this have stuck with NBM deterministic output which puts lows in the low to mid 60s for tonight.

Tomorrow will see the shortwave trough axis shift to the east, and a broad region of increased negative vorticity advection and upper deep layer subsidence will overspread the forecast area. Skies will clear through the day, and rain chances will come to an end by the mid- afternoon hours. Temperature spread is once again small tomorrow between the various ensemble members, and have stuck with NBM deterministic values. This places highs back into the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Deep layer ridging will be in place through the entire short term period, and this will keep conditions largely clear and dry.
Temperatures will be quite warm beneath this ridge axis due to strong subsidence throughout the atmospheric column. Highs will be above average and will range from the mid to upper 80s, and potentially even the lower 90s, for both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. With a dry airmass in place, strong radiational cooling is expected each night, and lows will dip into the low to mid 60s each night. Some atmospheric decoupling could occur each night, and will need to monitor for fog development.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The deep layer ridge will continue to dominate the area through the upcoming weekend. A series of fast moving and weak shortwave features will ride around the ridge axis, and this could help to spark off some isolated convective activity each afternoon over more inland portions of the CWA, but areas near the coast can expect to see continued dry conditions as a strong mid-level cap remains in place. Temperatures will remain warmer than average with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s each day and lows will continue to cool into the low to mid 60s each night as clear skies and low humidity values support strong radiational cooling.

MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Winds will remain elevated tonight in advance of an approaching front with winds of 10 to 20 knots expected. After the weak front slips through the area tomorrow morning, winds will shift to the west and southwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots. Seas will also begin to subside from 3 to 5 feet to 1 to 3 feet by tomorrow afternoon. Conditions will remain very benign from tomorrow afternoon through the end of the week as high pressure dominates the northern Gulf. Winds will shift to an onshore component at 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet can be expected from Wednesday through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 65 85 63 87 63 86 65 83 / 80 30 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 69 82 66 84 65 84 66 83 / 60 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 69 79 68 82 67 83 69 82 / 30 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 63 83 60 87 59 90 61 88 / 70 60 0 0 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 61 84 59 88 60 90 62 84 / 80 10 0 10 0 10 0 20 Camden 62 82 59 85 59 88 62 86 / 80 40 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 64 84 60 89 59 90 61 88 / 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>636-650- 655-670-675.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Great Point Clear
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:04 AM CDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:20 PM CDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:01 AM CDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:23 PM CDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:30 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Mobile, AL,