Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Fontaine, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:09PM Saturday March 25, 2017 6:41 AM CDT (11:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:16AMMoonset 4:49PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 431 Am Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. A moderate chop becoming a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 431 Am Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to strong southerly flow will persist over the marine area through this evening between a ridge of high pressure over the eastern seaboard and an area of low pressure lifting from the plains toward the mississippi valley. Showers and Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the marine area this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching storm system. Some of these storms could be strong to severe...with locally high winds and seas... Frequent lightning...and heavy rainfall. A southerly flow will otherwise continue through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Fontaine, AL
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location: 30.57, -88.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 251025
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
525 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017

A few severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible
across much of the region today...

Near term /now through Saturday night/ Water vapor satellite
animation shows a potent upper level low slowly lifting across
eastern ok early this morning. Large scale ascent within diffluent
mid level flow ahead of this feature was spreading from far
southeast tx and southwestern la and northeastward across the lower
mississippi valley region early this morning, where regional radar
imagery shows an organized squall line of thunderstorms slowly
advancing eastward. Radar is currently quiet across our forecast
area as of 4 a.M., aside from some very isolated light rain showers
developing across portions of southeast ms and southwest al. A warm
and moist southeasterly low level flow persists between the surface
ridge of high pressure over the eastern seaboard and the area of low
pressure over the plains.

The upper level low over northeastern ok early this morning is
forecast to lift northeastward toward mo through this afternoon,
while the associated region of large scale ascent gradually advances
eastward toward our forecast area through this afternoon and
evening. High resolution guidance, including the past few runs of
the hrrr along with the 26.00z wrf-arw lends confidence that showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over our southeast ms
counties especially around and after 10 am, before convection
gradually develops eastward over southwest al, generally west of i-
65 through the early to mid afternoon hours. Convection should then
continue to develop/spread eastward along and east of the i-65
corridor from mid-afternoon into the early evening hours. We expect
there to be opportunity for decent de-stabilization of the airmass
with daytime heating today, with MLCAPE values generally increasing
to 500-1000 j/kg ahead of the approaching convection. Low level wind
fields and deep layer shear is not overly impressive, but the
available instability in conjunction with 25-35 knots of 850 mb flow
and up to 200 m2/s2 of 0-1km storm relative helicity could enable
a few storms to become strong to severe late this morning into
this afternoon, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

Marginally severe hail will also be possible with the stronger
storms given mid level lapse rates between 6-6.5 c/km and wbz
heights around 9 kft agl. Locally heavy rainfall also looks
possible as storms spread east. We mentioned locally heavy
rainfall especially over central and western portions of the area
this afternoon, where between 1-2" of rainfall with locally higher
amounts will be possible. Highs today should range in the mid 70s
to around 80 inland, with lower to mid 70s along the beaches.

The overall severe potential should decrease by early this evening
as instability and shear wanes. However, will keep pops likely
across the eastern zones during the early evening as forcing
continues to push eastward. Lingering scattered convection may
continue into the overnight hours as the shortwave trough axis moves
overhead. Lows tonight will range from around 60 to the mid 60s.

/21

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/ The active weather
pattern will continue into the extended period with the potential
for a few distinct trough passages over the work week.

Lingering deeper moisture and lift will continue moving east at
the start of the short term period Sunday. A few scattered showers
and storms remain possible in our eastern counties but this
potential will diminish through the day. In its wake, somewhat
drier air aloft will filter into the region leading to a mostly
dry forecast for the remainder of the area Sunday. Southerly winds
will continue to allow for a robust low level moisture feed into
the region and partially clearing skies will allow temperatures to
warm into the mid 70s near the coast with low to mid 80s
prevalent through the interior zones during the afternoon Sunday.

Accordingly, lows on Sunday night and into early Monday will be
rather warm as well with low 60s interior to upper 60s along the
immediate beaches.

Zonal flow aloft will transition to southwesterly once again as
the next trough nears the area from the west beginning late Sunday
night and into Monday morning. Increasing deep layer moisture and
lift will accompany the approaching trough and will include
likely pops in the far northwestern zones with chance to slight
chance pops for the remainder after 12z Monday morning. The
dynamics with Monday's system appear to be weaker than what we
will be dealing with this afternoon and evening. However, a few
strong storms will be possible Monday afternoon and into the early
evening owing to modestly steep mid level lapse rates and 30 to
35 knots of 0-6km shear. Nickel to marginally severe hail and
gusty winds appear to be the most likely severe hazards with this
activity. Expect the northwestern portions of our area to have the
greatest chance for storms as the better dynamics and shear are
centered to our north and west. Showers and storms should be on
the wane with the loss of daytime heating Monday evening but
isolated showers could linger across the north towards midnight as
the axis of the mid level trough crosses the area. High
temperatures Monday will reach the upper 70s to perhaps the low
80s across inland areas with low to mid 70s expected at coastal
locations. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid
60s. 05/rr

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/ A lingering surface boundary
could lead to widely scattered showers with perhaps a rumble or
two of thunder across the region on Tuesday. Large scale support
for precipitation will be lacking with weak ridging building in
temporarily in the mid levels. Wednesday looks to be dry as the
next system takes shape across the texas panhandle leading to
modest amplification of the downstream ridge over our area.

Temperatures will be warm Tuesday with highs the low 80s inland
and mid 70s along the coast. Wednesday will be a touch warmer
with mid 80s possible inland and upper 70s south of i-10, a bit
cooler along the immediate coast.

Our next potential weather maker looks to arrive Thursday and
into early Friday and will bring yet another chance for showers
and thunderstorms to the area. Early indications are that this
system may have a more favorable configuration of surface and
upper level features for strong storms but won't get overly
focused on the details at this time range. Temperatures on
Thursday and Friday will be a little cooler than previous days
with upper 70s to low 80s inland and mid 70s at the beaches. 05/rr

Marine A strong southerly flow with elevated seas between 5-7
feet will continue over the coastal waters today between a ridge of
high pressure over the eastern seaboard and low pressure lifting
toward the mississippi valley. Will maintain a small craft advisory
for the coastal waters, also including lower mobile bay and the ms
sound through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage over the marine area this afternoon and evening ahead of
the approaching storm system. Some storms could be strong to severe,
with locally high winds and seas, frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall this afternoon and evening. A southerly flow will otherwise
continue through the middle of next week. /21

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mobile 77 62 79 64 / 90 40 20 10
pensacola 77 64 76 64 / 80 60 30 10
destin 73 65 74 65 / 60 70 30 10
evergreen 78 60 80 61 / 80 60 30 10
waynesboro 76 61 81 62 / 90 40 20 10
camden 77 60 80 61 / 80 60 30 10
crestview 79 61 79 62 / 60 70 30 10

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... High rip current risk through late tonight for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through late tonight for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz631-632-
650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 6 mi42 min SE 5.1 G 8 67°F 69°F1021.3 hPa (+0.9)
PTOA1 8 mi42 min 67°F 63°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 10 mi72 min SE 11 69°F 1020.6 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 10 mi42 min 66°F 65°F1020.7 hPa (+0.8)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 11 mi42 min SSE 4.1 64°F 1021 hPa (+0.7)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 17 mi57 min 63°F 62°F
WBYA1 18 mi42 min 71°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 18 mi72 min SSE 8.9 69°F 1020.3 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 22 mi42 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 69°F 1020.3 hPa (+1.1)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 23 mi72 min SSE 14 1019.6 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 23 mi57 min SE 12 70°F 1021 hPa66°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 24 mi42 min SSE 8 G 8.9 69°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 27 mi42 min SE 9.9 G 14 70°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.7)
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 27 mi42 min 71°F
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 29 mi42 min 69°F
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 29 mi42 min SE 11 G 14 70°F 1019.7 hPa (+0.7)
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 33 mi42 min SSE 12 G 16 69°F 1020.6 hPa (+0.6)
PPTA1 35 mi42 min SE 8.9 69°F 1020.6 hPa (+1.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi52 min SE 14 G 16 69°F 69°F4 ft1020.3 hPa (+1.3)
42067 - USM3M02 47 mi182 min SSE 16 G 18 70°F 6 ft1019.1 hPa66°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 48 mi42 min SSE 1.9 G 7 68°F 69°F1021.2 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL5 mi49 minSE 810.00 miOvercast69°F64°F84%1021.2 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL11 mi46 minSE 77.00 miOvercast66°F62°F87%1020.4 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL14 mi67 minN 010.00 miOvercast61°F60°F100%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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SE12SE13SE11SE15SE14SE14SE15SE14SE11SE12SE11SE11SE11SE7SE8SE8
1 day agoNE6NE8NE5NE4Calm46S7S7S9SE14SE14SE14SE13SE12SE9SE11SE11SE8SE16SE19SE17SE18SE18
2 days agoNW7NW7NW7NW7N8SE5SE5SE5S8SE8SE7S7S3SW45E3N4N4N6NE8NE7N8NE7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Fowl River, Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama
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Fowl River
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM CDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:07 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:04 PM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.110.80.60.40.30.10.100.10.20.30.50.70.80.90.9111.11.11.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:45 AM CDT     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:56 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:09 PM CDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:12 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.3-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.300.30.50.70.80.91110.90.80.60.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.