Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 4:58 PM   Moonset 3:40 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 200537 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1237 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Morning cloud cover held on a bit longer than yesterday but still expecting highs today to reach into the 90-104 degree range across the area with the hotter temperatures expected along the Rio Grande.
Dewpoints along the Rio Grande remain in the lower 70s but should mix out a bit later today which could lead to some elevated fire weather conditions given southeast flow near 15 mph with slightly higher gusts. The short-term period will remain rain free and warm.
Highs tomorrow will be back into the 90-105 degree range. Slightly higher dewpoints in the Rio Grande will lead to less of a fire weather concern, but afternoon heat index values will approach 107- 110 degrees which is just below Heat Advisory criteria. Lows tonight will range from near 70 in the Hill Country to the upper 70s in the Rio Grande. For tomorrow night, with slightly higher dewpoints, expect low temperatures to be warmer, in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees. Can't rule out some patchy fog in the Coastal Plains tonight but not expecting widespread impacts there.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

On Tuesday afternoon, a 1-2 Sigma 500mb ridge will be centered just south of our region over northeastern Mexico. In combination with 700mb temperatures in the 12-16C range and strong surface heating under the associated thermal ridge, afternoon highs will easily top out in the 90s for all locations, with highs in the 100-105 range west of the San Antonio metro over the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.

By early Wednesday, the ridge axis should slide east of our region, opening the door for mid to late week afternoon and early evening thunderstorms, especially over the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. The dryline should have a role in convective activity each afternoon, sliding eastward each afternoon. With SBCAPE in the 2000- 3000 J/kg range, steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5-8.5 C/km range, and 0-6km deep layer shear of 40-50 kts each afternoon, thunderstorms are possible if they can break through a moderately strong cap. A series of shortwaves may help to spark these storms despite the strong capping inversion each afternoon, but it will be highly dependent on the timing of said shortwaves. Storms that do develop could quickly turn severe with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards Wednesday afternoon/evening through Friday afternoon/evening. The heat is expected to continue each day despite the increased rain chances, with widespread highs in the 90s to around 105 along the Rio Grande. While record highs are unlikely at AUS, ATT, and SAT, Del Rio has a good shot a breaking record highs most days through the extended forecast.

Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to be very hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s east and in the 100-108 range out west. Factoring in heat indices in the 108-115 range and heat advisory products are looking increasingly likely for most locations outside of the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau by late week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Southeasterly flow in the boundary layer will continue during this period. MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop tonight first in Austin and San Antonio and later at DRT. Clouds will dissipate by late morning with VFR conditions through the afternoon and evening. Southeasterly winds will be 10 to 15 kts through the period at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 92 75 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 74 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 74 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 91 73 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 105 79 105 80 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 73 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 73 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 76 89 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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