Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marble Falls, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:33PM Saturday November 18, 2017 1:13 PM CST (19:13 UTC) Moonrise 7:02AMMoonset 6:07PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marble Falls, TX
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location: 30.58, -98.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 181734
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
1134 am cst Sat nov 18 2017

Aviation
Cold front currently across the hill country and central texas will
surge across south central texas early this afternoon. Surface high
pressure with tight pressure gradient and mixing aloft will create
northerly winds of 15 to 25 kts with gusts near 30 kts this
afternoon. Decoupling after sunset decreases winds to 10 to 15 kts
with only occasional gusts to 22 kts. Surface high begins to settle
over our area overnight into Sunday morning allowing winds to
decrease to 5 to 10 kts and turn to northeasterly most areas and
southeasterly out at kdrt. Few MVFR layer clouds will clear out in
the next hour or so withVFR flying conditions and few-sct cirrus
prevailing this afternoon through Sunday.

Prev discussion issued 903 am cst Sat nov 18 2017
update...

the main weather impact today continues to be a relatively strong
cold front that will move through in the northern hill country and
edwards plateau later this morning before clearing the coastal
plains counties by this afternoon. Winds will gradually shift from
southwest to west with a prefrontal trough, quickly followed by a
cold front within an hour or so. Winds will generally be sustained
at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph along and behind the front, but
we may briefly exceed wind advisory criteria for an hour or two with
the frontal passage. Models are predicting winds closer to 30 knots
at 850 mb, but generally only 20-25 knots at 925 mb. A strong
inversion from 850-900 mb suggests that we will most likely only be
able to mix momentum down from 900 mb, so winds just at or below
criteria currently seems most likely. Thus, we have issued an sps to
account for this and will evaluate the need for a short-fuse wind
advisory based on upstream observations and model trends.

Dew points will quickly fall behind the pre-frontal trough with
compressional warming ahead of and along the front briefly allowing
temperatures to rapidly increase into the lower to mid 80s for most
areas with some isolated spots in the upper 80s. This will challenge
record high temperatures at austin (85 at att and 83 at aus) and san
antonio (88). Of course, whether or not we briefly exceed these
record highs will depend upon the timing of the front as it will be
moving through prior to peak diurnal heating for most locations with
our southern counties having a slightly later early afternoon
passage. A slight delay in the cold frontal passage would most likely
cause us to exceed record values, particularly if 20+ deg c 925 mb
temperatures forecast by the rap and other hi-res models are able to
mix down efficiently. Elevated fire weather conditions will also
briefly be possible mainly north and west of the balcones escarpment
due to the strong winds combined with the rapid drop in the relative
humidity values into the 20-30 percent range. The rap currently
appears to have a good handle on the current position of the front
and its timing and generally matches the hrrr, so our forecast is
generally based on trending this forecast with current observations.

Prev discussion... Issued 548 am cst Sat nov 18 2017
aviation... 12z tafs
morning low clouds and patchy fog have not lowered to levels earlier
predicted as the low level jet has held up and prevented surface
winds from decoupling all the way. Some spotty ifr CIGS and vsbys
will remain possible from drt to Sat ssf, but prevailing MVFR cigs
andVFR vsbys should be more common. Strong FROPA is expected over
northern counties later this morning, but will show a more gradual
shifting of winds by the time the front interacts with daytime mixing
when passing through the area TAF sites. Some shifty winds could thus
go out of tolerance at times mainly in the 16z to 19z timeframe.

After 19z, north winds should begin to become more uniform with gust
over 30 knots possible. The strong gusts should ease up by around
02z.

Prev discussion... Issued 319 am cst Sat nov 18 2017
short term (today through Sunday)...

low clouds have developed across much of the CWA overnight and these
clouds should continue to expand through the rest of the overnight
period. Could also see some patchy fog by morning in some areas as
current dewpoint depressions are around 0-4 degrees. Current water
vapor imagery shows a longwave trough moving through the central
plains. This system is sending a cold front south with its current
location in the texas panhandle and northwestern oklahoma. This front
will continue to move south this morning and should begin to enter
the northern counties around 10am and then push through the entire
area by 3 pm.

The main story today behind the front will be the breezy northerly
winds this afternoon. Winds should be sustained around 15-25 mph with
higher gusts. The northern counties may see a brief period of
sustained winds near advisory criteria of 25 mph, but duration and
averaged speeds should allow for not needing a wind advisory today.

However, if wind speeds are a bit higher than currently forecasted,
an advisory could be needed. Highs today will be in the 70s and 80s
with the peak temperature likely occurring just before the passage
of the cold front. The front is expected to be a dry one and there is
no mention of precip in the forecast. For tonight, wind speeds will
begin to slacken but will likely remain in the 5-15 mph range. Lows
will reach into the upper 30s for the hill country and 40s elsewhere.

Sunday should see partly cloudy skies and temperatures remaining in
the 60s across the area.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)...

for Sunday night, wind speeds will generally be at or below 5 mph and
with mostly clear skies we should see a better radiational cooling
environment versus Saturday night. Low temperatures will drop into
the middle 30s for the hill country and the upper 30s to lower 40s
for the rest of the area. After the cold start to the morning, highs
will return to the middle 60s to near 70 degrees with the return of
southerly flow. The southerly flow will only last until Tuesday
afternoon as another trough axis is expected to move into the plains
in the afternoon hours and will send another cold front into the
region.

Previous forecasts had some rain with this system but models
continue to come in drier and have removed all mention of rain out of
the forecast for the entire area. High temperatures will cool back
off into the 60s on Wednesday with low temperatures on thanksgiving
in the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs on thanksgiving are currently
forecasted to be in the middle 60s to near 70 degrees with the higher
values in the western cwa. This should be our coolest thanksgiving
since 2014 as 2015 and 2016 saw high temps in the 70s. Weak
southerly flow returns on Friday with highs likely responding several
degrees warmer. Another cold front looks likely just beyond this
forecast period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 83 46 63 43 66 - 0 0 0 0
austin bergstrom intl airport 83 44 63 37 67 - 0 0 0 0
new braunfels muni airport 85 44 64 39 67 - 0 0 0 -
burnet muni airport 77 41 60 39 64 0 0 0 0 0
del rio intl airport 81 45 63 42 67 0 0 0 0 0
georgetown muni airport 80 43 62 41 65 - 0 0 0 0
hondo muni airport 85 41 65 41 68 0 0 0 0 -
san marcos muni airport 85 45 64 41 67 - 0 0 0 -
la grange - fayette regional 83 45 63 42 68 10 0 0 0 -
san antonio intl airport 86 45 65 42 68 - 0 0 0 -
stinson muni airport 87 47 65 43 69 - 0 0 0 -

Ewx watches warnings advisories
None.

Mesoscale aviation... 04
synoptic grids... Lh
public service data collection... Treadway


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Horseshoe Bay Resort Airpark, TX6 mi78 minNNW 20 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy75°F45°F35%1016.6 hPa
Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX11 mi80 minNNW 18 G 2910.00 miFair and Breezy71°F43°F36%1015.9 hPa
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX17 mi78 minN 17 G 2910.00 miFair76°F46°F35%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from DZB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8
G16
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G19
SW4S7S5S4CalmCalmS6S6S6S5S6CalmCalmSW5S3CalmCalmCalmNW6NW10
G16
N19
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G30
1 day agoS3S5S4S7S5S3CalmCalmCalmS3S4CalmS4CalmS5S4CalmS6S3S4S6S8
G17
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G21
SW7
G20
2 days agoSW6CalmCalmS4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmN3S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.