Sunday, August20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Marble Falls, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:08PM Sunday August 20, 2017 3:05 AM CDT (08:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marble Falls, TX
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location: 30.58, -98.27     debug

Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 200528
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
1228 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017

Aviation discussion For 06z TAF period...

at TAF issuance, skies were clear across all terminals with only high
clouds observed on satellite northwest of kdrt. Latest hi-res models
indicate some brief MVFR development at the san antonio terminals
around daybreak but looking like only periodic impacts. Thus
continued the previous forecast's decision for tempo this morning.

Kaus and kdrt expected to stayVFR throughout the next 24 hours.

Models are also keeping the area devoid of shra tsra this afternoon
as well.

Prev discussion... Issued 325 pm cdt Sat aug 19 2017
short term (tonight through Sunday night)...

a mid-to-upper level ridge of high pressure remains over south
central texas today, leading to hot and dry conditions with high
temperatures headed for the upper 90s and lower 100s. Relatively dry
surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s should keep heat index
values in the 100-105 degree for most spots this afternoon, with some
isolated higher values mainly east of i-35 in the coastal plains. The
relatively dry atmospheric profile with weak subsidence inversions
aloft should also prevent convection from developing this afternoon
over the region, with convection generally remaining north and west
of the region. Tonight should be similar to last night as mostly
clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 70s before
scattered to broken low clouds form along the escarpment by sunrise.

A weak upper level easterly disturbance moving in from the gulf and a
slow-moving trough over the western united states will help weaken
the ridge of high pressure slightly tomorrow. This weakening ridge
coupled with a slight increase in surface moisture ahead of the gulf
disturbance may allow for a slight decrease in temperatures and
slight increase in humidity tomorrow. Considering model guidance has
been running 1-2 degrees cooler than observed highs, we went ahead
and increased high temperatures slightly for tomorrow to keep them in
the upper 90s and lower 100s. If these values and the increased dew
points pan out, we should see a slight increase in heat index values
tomorrow more in the 103-108 degree range outside of the hill country
where values will be below 100. However, we should still be below
heat advisory criteria tomorrow, so our ongoing sps on elevated heat
indices should suffice. Moisture levels will not recover enough
tomorrow to overcome subsidence inversions aloft, so the region
should remain dry tomorrow as well.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)...

the weak upper level disturbance in the gulf (or tutt low) will
continue to approach the upper texas gulf coast for Monday and
Tuesday as the ridge continues to gradually erode. This should allow
for a gradual increase in cloud cover and humidity over most of the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the coastal plains.

Temperatures should degrease a few degrees to keep most spots in the
upper 90s, but heat index values should still remain elevated in the
103-107 degree range for most spots due to the increase in humidity.

Confidence is increasing in the prospect of a weak front approaching
or moving into the region late Wednesday into Thursday as a strong
trough moves through the midwest with the ridge weakened considerably
over south central texas by the inverted trough. This should trigger
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over at least
northern portions of the region for Wednesday with outflows helping
push the weak front further south for Thursday to bring rain chances
and slightly cooler temperatures to the entire region. There may be a
locally heavy rainfall threat along the front during these periods,
but there is also a chance that the subtropical ridge briefly
rebuilds from the west to keep the front north of our area.

The forecast past the middle of next week is even more uncertain as
what occurs during with the front during the middle of the week will
affect the strength of the ridge over the region for the later part
of next week. In addition, the remnants of harvey should move into
the bay of campeche on Thursday and Friday and begin to move
northwest into mexico for Saturday. Model ensembles keep the remnants
south of the rio grande, but the increased moisture should at least
give south texas and possibly the southern half of our CWA continued
rain chances into next weekend. Thus, there is at least a decent
possibility of a continued wet period and shift away from hot and
dry weather in the extended forecast.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 101 76 100 76 100 0 - 10 - 10
austin bergstrom intl airport 100 75 99 74 98 0 - 10 - 10
new braunfels muni airport 99 75 98 75 98 0 - 10 - 10
burnet muni airport 97 73 95 73 95 0 - 10 - -
del rio intl airport 102 78 100 78 101 - - - - 10
georgetown muni airport 98 75 97 75 97 0 - 10 - 10
hondo muni airport 100 74 99 74 99 0 - - - 10
san marcos muni airport 100 75 99 75 99 0 - 10 - 10
la grange - fayette regional 99 76 99 75 99 - - 20 - 20
san antonio intl airport 99 76 97 76 98 0 - 10 - 10
stinson muni airport 100 76 99 76 99 0 - 10 - 10

Ewx watches warnings advisories

Mesoscale aviation... Tb3
synoptic grids... 24

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Horseshoe Bay Resort Airpark, TX6 mi70 minS 710.00 miFair82°F65°F59%1016.3 hPa
Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX11 mi72 minSSE 410.00 miFair81°F66°F62%1015.1 hPa
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX17 mi70 minS 610.00 miFair82°F68°F64%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from DZB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7S5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE6S4SE5SE3S3S4S3S7S7S6
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S6S7SW5SW4S6SW3CalmS3SE3SE3E5SE3S4SE3S3S7S9
2 days agoS6S4S6CalmS3CalmSW3S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.