Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marble Falls, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday May 25, 2017 1:18 PM CDT (18:18 UTC) Moonrise 5:38AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marble Falls, TX
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location: 30.58, -98.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 251733
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
1233 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening at all
area airports. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon. Low CIGS will develop around
midnight in austin and san antonio and by around 10z at drt. All
sites will improve toVFR by around noon Friday.

Prev discussion issued 422 am cdt Thu may 25 2017
short term (today through Friday)...

another unseasonably cool evening and morning has occurred across
south central texas given light and variable winds under clear skies.

Temperatures have fallen into the upper 50s in the hill country with
60s elsewhere, and they may continue to fall a few more degrees to
once again approach record lows at aus (58 in 1975). Southerly flow
will return this morning to advect low-level moisture back into the
region, but skies will generally remain clear under the influence of
a mid-to-upper level ridge passing over texas. High temperatures will
climb into the lower 90s across most of the region with some mid to
upper 90s in the rio grande plains, several degrees warmer than
yesterday. Gusty southerly winds to 25 mph will be possible during
the evening hours with low clouds returning after midnight to keep
low temperatures up in the lower to mid 70s across the region. These
clouds should lift by late Friday morning to allow temperatures to
warm back up near today's highs, but with a significant increase in
humidity that will cause heat indices to climb into the 100-105
degree range across the region. The dryline will push into western
val verde county to create elevated fire weather concerns, but
capping aloft will prevent any convection from developing.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)...

Saturday will generally be very similar to Friday across most of our
area aside from a slight increase in temperatures and heat indices
during the afternoon. Thus, Saturday will generally feel like the
hottest day of the period with a few isolated heat indices above 105
degrees and temperatures above 100 degrees in the rio grande plains.

This slight increase in temperatures may be enough to help force
convection past the cap along the dryline which should be located
from western val verde county to somewhere between brady and san
angelo just west of our cwa. Any very isolated thunderstorms that
form would be able to take advantage of steep mid-level lapse rates
and shear values around 30-40 knots that may be marginally supportive
of supercells to cause a very conditional threat for large hail and
damaging winds. SPC has outlined our edwards plateau and western hill
country counties in a slight risk with a marginal risk approaching
the i-35 corridor for any cells that are able to move into our area.

However, it is important to note that this is a low probability, high
impact type of risk contingent on the cap breaking which typically
has not occurred over the past few weeks here without significant
synoptic forcing (like what we saw on Tuesday).

The cap will not be able to prevent convection from developing by
Sunday afternoon over the edwards plateau and western hill country as
a trough digging through the rockies will help push a cold front
into region. Strong to severe storms may be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours as shear will be a bit higher, but
instability a bit lower given an increase in moisture aloft. These
storms may evolve into an MCS that pushes through the i-35 corridor
overnight before dissipating east of the area. If this scenario plays
out, the i-35 corridor would see a greater threat of damaging winds
than locally heavy rainfall. However, the strongest dynamic forcing
associated with the trough will be well N NE of the region and the
cap aloft may prevent a significant complex from pushing through. In
that scenario, a stalling front and remnant outflow boundaries could
provide a focus for Monday morning convection along the escarpment
and i-35 corridor where locally heavy rainfall would be a greater
threat than severe storms. Thus, we have 40-60 pops across the
entire area during both the overnight Sunday into Monday and Monday
morning and afternoon periods as rain will likely occur in one if not
both of these two periods, with the progressive MCS scenario likely
causing a break in the action for most of the day on memorial day.

There is even greater uncertainty over the western portions of our
cwa including the rio grande plains for what will occur Sunday night
into Monday where a progressive MCS appears less likely. Thus, a
slow-moving complex capable of producing locally heavy rainfall is a
distinct possibility per the GEFS ensembles and several operational
models, which could be assisted by a remnant circulation MCV left
behind if a progressive MCS was able to develop and push through the
i-35 corridor. Given a weak LLJ that should be perpendicular to the
escarpment and stalled front west of san antonio, heavy rainfall
certainly definitely appears more likely for these areas at the
current moment on Sunday night into Monday then it does further
northeast of san antonio. The key take home message is that everyone
across south central texas should be weather aware particularly for
the second half of this memorial day weekend as the forecast comes
into clearer focus.

The model consensus suggests the wet and relatively cool period will
continue into at least the middle of next week as a steady stream of
shortwaves track over a stalled or remnant frontal boundary and set
of outflows. It is hard to depict confidence in any one period past
memorial day, but for now have gone with 50 pops on Tuesday and
Wednesday with a slight decrease in pops towards the end of next
week. However, it is often difficult to predict when these wet
periods will end as we transition out of spring into summer, so the
current forecast banks on model guidance under forecasting the
ability of this wet period to persist longer than it is thinking. At
the very least, this wetter and cooler than normal period should
mitigate drought and fire weather concerns moving into early summer.

However, increasingly saturated soils and elevated streams and rivers
from heavy rainfall may lead to an increasing flash flood threat
through the second half of the forecast period with additional
events.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 74 93 76 94 75 - - 10 10 10
austin bergstrom intl airport 74 93 76 95 75 - - 10 10 10
new braunfels muni airport 73 93 76 94 75 - - 10 10 10
burnet muni airport 72 94 75 93 73 - 0 - 10 20
del rio intl airport 75 96 78 97 77 0 0 - 10 10
georgetown muni airport 74 93 76 94 74 - - - 10 20
hondo muni airport 74 94 77 97 76 0 - - 10 10
san marcos muni airport 74 93 77 95 75 - - 10 10 10
la grange - fayette regional 75 92 77 94 77 0 - 10 10 10
san antonio intl airport 75 94 77 95 76 - - 10 10 10
stinson muni airport 74 95 77 97 76 - - 10 10 10

Ewx watches warnings advisories
None.

Mesoscale aviation... 05
synoptic grids... 24
public service data collection... Yb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX11 mi26 minS 11 G 2310.00 miFair86°F52°F31%1006.6 hPa
Lago Vista TX, Rusty Allen Airport, TX17 mi24 minSSW 14 G 2210.00 miFair86°F51°F31%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from DZB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE10SE8
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1 day agoCalmSE4S4SE3S4S8S8
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2 days agoCalmW3W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5E3E6SE5SE6SE7SE8
G15
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G14
SE7SE10
G16
SE8S7S8S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.