Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM   Moonset 1:16 PM

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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 854 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of today - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 854 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - High pressure center will build over coastal new england and extend down the eastern seaboard into early next week. This will result in mainly south-southeasterly winds prevailing through next week. Afternoon and evening wind surges are expected today and Friday due to the sea breeze. Showers and storms return to the local waters this weekend as a cold front moves through the southeast states.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of apr 30, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
50 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 54 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 61 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 81 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 021623 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1223 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 852 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Current forecast for Today looks good...no changes planned in update.

NEAR TERM
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Ridging aloft and a weak surface pressure pattern will remain over the region today. Low level flow will shift to easterly resulting in an Atlantic sea breeze dominant regime. Drier air and subsidence will limit convection along the sea breezes as they shift inland. Best chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be focused along the I-75 corridor where sea breezes collide late this afternoon into evening. Onshore winds will lead to an east-west temperature gradient with highs ranging from the low 80s along the coast to around 90 west of I-75.
Showers will linger west of I-75 tonight before dissipating by midnight. Patchy inland fog will again be possible during the early morning hours on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

A large trough digging over the Rockies and the Great Plains will direct a series of shortwave troughs northeastward across the lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys from Friday through Saturday. This change in the weather pattern will flatten ridging aloft over our region on Friday, with a more zonal flow then allowing for an amplifying shortwave trough to cross the southeastern states on Friday night and Saturday. A dry air mass is expected to linger throughout much of Friday across our area, with the approach of the upstream shortwave trough and mesoscale boundary collisions possibly developing some convection for inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Model blends currently depict only isolated coverage at this time. Plenty of sunshine from Friday morning through the mid-afternoon hours and the lingering dry air mass will boost highs to the upper 80s to around 90 at most inland locations, with the afternoon Atlantic sea breeze keeping coastal highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows this weekend will only fall to the 65-70 degree range, with convective debris clouds moving overhead likely limiting dense fog potential.

Longwave troughing will progress eastward across the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front into the southeastern states. Deeper moisture will pool ahead of this frontal boundary across our region on Saturday, and the aforementioned shortwave trough embedded in the zonal flow pattern will progress across our region during the afternoon and evening hours. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with scattered coverage forecast elsewhere, except for only isolated activity along the I-95 corridor from St. Augustine southward. Weak flow aloft should preclude a severe weather threat, but a few storms may pulse and become strong across the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA, where global models indicate ML CAPE values approaching or exceeding 1,000 j/kg during the early to mid afternoon hours.
Increasing cloud cover and a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms will keep highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s for locations along and north of I-10, while a later start to convection allows highs to reach the mid to upper 80s for inland locations south of I-10. The afternoon sea breeze will keep coastal highs generally in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Deeper moisture will remain entrenched over our region on Sunday and Monday as the frontal boundary over the southeastern states stalls. Shortwave troughing will progress offshore on Sunday morning, leaving our area within weak flow aloft. Widely scattered and mainly diurnal convection will develop along inland moving mesoscale boundaries such as the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes. Forecast confidence remains rather low on Sunday and Monday, as another shortwave trough potentially traverses the southeastern states, although the latest 00Z operational ECWMF indicates that a drier and more subsident air mass may begin to build westward from the Atlantic across northeast and north central FL by Monday afternoon. Model blends keep isolated to widely scattered, mainly diurnal convection in the forecast for Monday at this time. Highs on Sunday and Monday will climb to the upper 80s inland, with the afternoon sea breeze keeping coastal highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows will continue to only fall to the 65-70 degree range area-wide in the humid air mass that will prevail to the stalled and decaying frontal boundary over the southeastern states.

Ridging aloft will then build towards the FL peninsula on Tuesday, as our area would be downstream of of another digging longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest, the Rockies, and the Great Plains.
This weather pattern will bring increasingly hot and drier weather to our area from Tuesday through late next week, as Atlantic surface ridging extends its axis westward across the FL peninsula.
West-southwesterly low level flow will strengthen, which will delay or hinder the development of the cooling afternoon Atlantic sea breeze, resulting in temperatures soaring to the low to mid 90s inland and the 85-90 degree range at coastal locations. Overnight lows will only fall to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR next 24 hrs. An isolated SHRA/TSRA is possible late this afternoon, but think better coverage will be well W of TAF sites, so did not include in 18z TAFs. Sfc wind will be E to ESE 8-12kts this afternoon, decreasing to less than 6 kts Tonight and Friday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure center will build over coastal New England and extend down the eastern seaboard into early next week. This will result in mainly south-southeasterly winds prevailing through next week. Afternoon and evening wind surges are expected today and Friday due to the sea breeze. Showers and storms return to the local waters this weekend as a cold front moves through the southeast states.

Rip Currents: With generally onshore flow, moderate risk of rip currents will continue at area beaches through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 89 67 82 / 10 20 20 60 SSI 69 80 69 79 / 0 10 10 30 JAX 66 86 67 84 / 0 10 10 30 SGJ 68 82 68 82 / 0 10 10 20 GNV 65 89 66 86 / 10 10 0 40 OCF 65 91 66 88 / 10 10 0 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Fernandina Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:58 AM EDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     6.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fernandina Beach, Amelia River, Florida, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM EDT     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:54 PM EDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current, knots

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