Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:57 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 280710 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 210 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 119 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ /Today through Monday Afternoon/

The main show of our overnight severe weather event is currently on our doorstep. We've already seen some severe-caliber storms in our northwest along the line, with isolated warm advection- induced convection ahead of the line within western North Texas.
The line will continue to advance eastward through the night and into this morning as its upper level support swings through the Central Plains. The environment that the line is moving into is capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, as seen on the 00Z FWD sounding. The "loaded gun" sounding featured an uncapped atmosphere with deep layer shear 45-50 kts, MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg, and favorable low-level SRH. All this to say: large hail, damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes will all be possible through the nighttime hours. The line will gradually weaken and the severe threat will lessen for some as it moves into East Texas, however, severe weather will still remain possible.

CAM guidance continues to highlight redevelopment near and east of the I-35 corridor over the mid-afternoon hours on Sunday as a shortwave disturbance rounds the base of the departing upper low.
These storms are progged to move east/northeast over the rest of the day. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms show an environment with steep lapse rates, sufficient deep layer shear, and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg (which is a bit more robust than previous runs). Areas near and east of I-35 will be under another severe threat, with storms primarily capable of large hail and damaging winds, and a tertiary tornado threat. Make sure to stay weather aware tomorrow, especially if attending outdoor activities.

Through Sunday afternoon, expect average total rainfall amounts of 1- 3" with isolated amounts up to 4-5". These amounts, coupled with multiple rounds of storms expected through tonight, will exacerbate the flood threat. This will be especially true in flood prone areas and in places that have already received heavy rainfall. The Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM this evening, but may need to be extended through the evening hours for portions of eastern Central Texas.

All rain should come to an end by Monday morning, leaving the rest of the short term period dry. Winds will be light through the night, and with clearing skies and primed soils, there is potential for mist/patchy fog and associated visibility restrictions across much of the area through the morning hours on Monday. Meanwhile, the base of an eastward- moving longwave trough will begin to move overtop the region over Monday, but any associated rain chances should stay to our south where the better moisture resides. Have left unmentionable 10% PoPs in our southernmost zones through Monday afternoon to account for the low possibility of showers developing a bit further north.

Prater

LONG TERM
/NEW/ Update: An active weather pattern will continue through much of the upcoming workweek after a brief lull on Monday. Additional opportunities for thunderstorms are forecast from Tuesday through Friday, although the potential for organized severe weather on any particular day is still uncertain at this time. Sufficient shear/instability parameter space for at least an isolated strong or severe storm will exist on a daily basis as we remain in an open warm sector though Friday before the arrival of a cold front.
Aside from nominal adjustments to PoPs, minimal changes were needed from the previous long term forecast.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion: /Monday Onward/

A lull in the active weather will occur on Monday as the multitude of upper level systems responsible for this weekend's thunderstorms shift to the east, and a weak ridge develops overhead. Storm chances will return on Tuesday, however, as a shortwave rounds the northern flank of the ridge. This will help ignite thunderstorms along the dryline, which will be positioned across the Big Country by Tuesday afternoon. These storms should remain confined to the western half of the region, keeping the severe weather potential largely west of the I-35 corridor. A secondary batch of convection may also occur across the southeast zones where an active seabreeze may infiltrate Tuesday afternoon.
The southeast storms will likely remain sub-severe, though a few may produce gusty winds and heavy rain.

By Wednesday, a stronger shortwave will be dropping southeast through the Rockies, weakening the ridge and generating another round of dryline convection across the Big Country mid to late afternoon. A warm and unstable environment along with 35+ knots of effective shear will support more severe thunderstorm potential as convection spreads east through the region Wednesday evening.
Storms will dissipate Wednesday night as instability wanes and a capping inversion strengthens at the 850-700mb level.

A cold front will then approach on Thursday as the shortwave trough traverses the Plains, providing another focus for showers and storms along with the dryline Thursday afternoon and evening.
Widespread convection will be the result Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, with activity pushing south of the region along with the front on Friday.

A short reprieve in rain chances will occur Friday into Friday evening before a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet generates another round of precipitation Friday night into next Saturday. All of the forecast area should be in the cool sector following the frontal passage, keeping any thunderstorms elevated in nature and resulting from isentropic ascent. This should limit the severe potential, but a strong storm or two would be capable of producing hail. After a seasonably cool and damp (next)
weekend, a strengthening ridge aloft should lead to a warm-up and a rain-free start to the following week.

30

AVIATION
/Issued 119 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ /06Z TAFs/

Scattered showers and storms have popped up across D10 over the last couple hours and will continue to do so ahead of the main line of storms. The line will directly impact D10 between 9-13Z, and ACT 12-14Z. During this time, expect occasionally gusty westerly winds and the potential for hail and spin-up tornadoes, mainly closer to D10. Lingering precipitation is expected behind the line until the mid-morning, before a lull in precipitation is expected. Ceilings should lift somewhat, allowing low VFR to return to all TAF sites mid-late afternoon. Redevelopment is possible near and east of the airports mid afternoon and will move east by the evening. Skies will more efficiently clear out tonight with VFR prevailing.

There is the potential for lowered visibilities due to mist over Monday morning, but have only included this potential at KDFW as it is at the end of the period.

Prater


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 65 85 67 84 / 80 5 5 5 20 Waco 78 66 84 64 83 / 90 10 5 5 20 Paris 76 61 81 61 81 / 90 40 5 5 20 Denton 80 60 83 64 83 / 60 0 5 0 10 McKinney 78 63 83 64 83 / 90 5 5 0 20 Dallas 80 65 85 65 85 / 90 5 5 5 20 Terrell 77 64 83 65 82 / 100 30 5 5 20 Corsicana 80 67 85 67 84 / 90 40 5 5 30 Temple 79 66 85 66 84 / 90 10 5 5 20 Mineral Wells 82 59 86 64 86 / 30 0 5 0 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123- 131>135-144>146-159.

Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening for TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175.

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