Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM   Moonset 2:31 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 032121 CCA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 421 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #179 was recently issued and includes Val Verde, Edwards, Real, Kinney, and Maverick Counties. Storms have developed in the higher terrain of Mexico and north along the dryline through West Texas. Several WoFS members indicated the potential for isolated, splitting storms across Mexico to enter portions of the Rio Grande between 22Z-02Z (5PM-9PM). Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with any storms that do manage to make it into the watch area.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our CWA There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA We have chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer temperatures over most of the CWA A cold front will drop through north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to early overnight.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day, there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

It's a bad flying day in Austin and San Antonio. IFR/LIFR conditions are still hanging around. It doesn't look like there will be a lot of improvement this afternoon. Ceilings should get to MVFR this afternoon and maybe briefly to VFR at AUS. Ceilings should lower again starting this evening dropping to IFR for the late evening and overnight. There is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening with better chances at AUS, but too low to include in the TAF. Ceilings should finally get back to VFR Saturday afternoon.

At DRT clouds have scattered out and they will be VFR through the afternoon and early evening. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the better chances during the evening. MVFR ceilings will develop during the evening and to IFR overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 85 69 82 / 20 20 70 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 85 68 82 / 20 10 60 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 71 84 / 20 10 60 50 Burnet Muni Airport 69 82 67 80 / 30 30 70 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 91 72 87 / 40 30 70 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 83 67 80 / 30 30 70 60 Hondo Muni Airport 70 88 69 83 / 30 20 70 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 86 69 83 / 20 10 60 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 85 72 82 / 20 10 40 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 86 71 83 / 30 10 60 50 Stinson Muni Airport 72 89 72 85 / 20 10 60 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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