Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 10:07 PM   Moonset 7:19 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KEWX 260730 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

-Isolated strong to severe storms possible today and Saturday with all hazards possible.

An upper level trough currently over the Central Plains lifts into the Northern Plains today allowing the dryline to mix east into Val Verde County this morning and the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted along the dryline over West Central Texas early this morning. They will move to the east over the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country to along and east of the I-35 corridor this morning into afternoon ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings indicate a potential for isolated strong to severe storms with all hazards possible. However, the capping inversion may be a limiting factor. The dryline shifts back to the west tonight with little or no showers expected. Another upper level trough approaches from the west on Saturday allowing the dryline to mix east again, although only to the lower Pecos Valley of Val Verde County to along the Rio Grande Valley. Daytime heating and forcing by the dryline will generate isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Hill Country to portions of the I-35 corridor north of San Antonio.
Similar to today, there is a potential for isolated strong to severe storms with all hazards possible. The more consequential threat for severe storms will come just beyond the short term. High temperatures will be at seasonal levels east of the dryline and well above normal west of the dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected west of the dryline each day as humidities fall into the upper single digits and teens along with winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusty.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The extended forecast looks to be quite active as several systems move through the Southern Plains allowing for increased shower and thunderstorm chances across the area. The first system will be moving into Central Texas Saturday evening and will spark off showers and thunderstorms initially in our northwestern CWA after 10 PM Saturday. This activity is expected to grow upscale and bring with it a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country Saturday night into Sunday morning. Ahead of the rain chances southerly winds look to be quite breezy with speeds of 20-25 mph near advisory criteria. Will have to monitor trends there for any possible needs of a Wind Advisory. As the storms develop and move downstream, the environment will be one of CAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg and adequate shear will allow for the chance for some strong to severe storms. With this threat of severe storms, most of the CWA is under at least a marginal risk of severe storms with portions of the Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau under a slight risk in the latest Day 2 outlook from SPC. This activity is expected to push eastward into the I35 corridor and eastern counties Sunday morning before beginning to exit the area Sunday afternoon. Instability and shear amounts remain elevated and will likely continue to see at least a low end threat for additional strong to severe storms
The latest Day 3 outlook

The next disturbance, while weaker, will allow for additional showers and storms on Monday and will show 20-50 PoPs across the area. While deterministic models don't show anything too concerning with respect to rainfall amounts, a few of the ECMWF ensemble members show some threat for locally heavy rainfall. An additional weak disturbance and some possible warm-air advection will lead to a 20-30 percent chance of showers and storms on Tuesday. With the lack of deep forcing and subsequent weaker winds aloft think the chances for strong to severe storms Monday and Tuesday will be smaller, but given adequate instability amounts can't rule out an isolated storm or two.

A stronger system is expected on Wednesday with both the GFS and ECMWF showing a large area of decent QPF across our western counties Wednesday afternoon spreading eastward Wednesday night. Instability amounts are not as high and drop off to the east, but some strong to severe storms with the initial development closer to the Rio Grande can't be ruled out.

The GFS and ECMWF then sends a cold front into the area Thursday night into Friday which would bring widespread rainfall and some threat of heavy rainfall. This is somewhat supported in the ensemble guidance as well, so we will have to watch this possibility closely over the next several days for some appreciable rainfall.

Temperatures in the extended will mostly see highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees with the higher values out west. Lows will be primarily in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR CIGs are expected overnight, then lower to IFR early Friday morning as SHRA/TSRA develop. CIGs rise to VFR by midday while SHRA/TSRA continue into mid afternoon. Breezy S-SE winds prevail with a few gusts to 30 KTs possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 82 71 85 70 / 60 10 20 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 71 85 69 / 50 10 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 71 86 71 / 50 10 10 40 Burnet Muni Airport 80 69 81 65 / 60 10 20 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 74 98 69 / 0 0 10 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 71 84 68 / 60 20 20 50 Hondo Muni Airport 87 71 90 68 / 20 0 10 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 70 85 70 / 50 10 10 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 73 85 73 / 30 10 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 71 86 70 / 40 10 10 50 Stinson Muni Airport 86 72 87 72 / 40 0 10 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Central Texas,