Monday, June24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Roads, LA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:11PM Monday June 24, 2019 12:14 PM CDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:31AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 1005 Am Cdt Mon Jun 24 2019
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers late in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..Northwest winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds around 5 knots becoming north up to 5 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1005 Am Cdt Mon Jun 24 2019
Synopsis.. Disturbances aloft will move across the northern gulf coast today and Tuesday. This will provide a chance for showers and storms. Winds will generally be onshore as high pressure remains centered over the northwest gulf during the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 240829
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
329 am cdt Mon jun 24 2019

Short term
Early this morning, regional radars show a line of thunderstorms
along a line from natchez to toledo bend moving southeast. These
storm should be reaching the northwestern corner of the CWA in
southwest mississippi within the next hour or 2. Based on lightning
data, general intensity along the portion of the line that will
impact the local area has been decreasing. Strong to marginally
severe storms are possible with gusty winds being the main threat.

Global and many meso models are not doing a good job depicting the
fast progression of this line. The hrwarw initializes quite well
and bring the lead edge of the convection through msy by mid
morning. Thus, have adjusted short- term pops to be much closer to
that solution along with rain chances decreasing considerably
with time after 18z. The one thing that most models have in common
in a general decrease in the integrity of the line as it moves
across the forecast area. This makes sense with lightning already
falling off. One ramification of earlier convection is the
likelihood of much cooler daytime highs that previously
forecasted. Have dropped todays highs done into the mid 80s to 90.

Moving into Tuesday, an upper level ridge will try to build across
the gulf of mexico from the western atlantic while a weak shortwave
tracks across east texas, arkansas and northern louisiana. This will
bring increased rain chances to at least the north an northwestern
portions of the forecast area. For now, limited appreciable pops to
those areas north of a hum to asd line. A rebound of daytime temps
is expected tomorrow as well with highs back in the lower to mid
90s.

The remainder of the week will be characterized by upper level ridge
building across the southern half of the country from texas to the
east coast. It will be a daily battle between daytime heating
induced convection and subsidence aloft. The ECMWF suggests the
downward motion will suppress most of the convection while the gfs
says the daytime heating will win out and scattered to numerous
storms will develop. Went in between those 2 with the pop forecast,
leaning towards the GFS for Friday as the ridge locally should begin
its weakening trend.

Long term
That weakening will continue into the weekend as a deep trough
tracks out of canada across the northeastern conus, eroding the
ridge across the southeastern us. This will allow strong daytime
heating to produce numerous afternoon thunderstorms. Expect this
summertime pattern to persist into at least the first half of next
week.

Meffer

Aviation
Conditions will be variable between MVFR andVFR depending on taf
location this morning. Have timed out the arrival of line of sh ts
for kbtr kmcb during the 12-15z period and khdc 13-16z with lower
vsby and higher convective gusts. Remainder of airports to east and
south are more uncertain on whether the integrity of the shra tsra
will be maintained, so only carried p6sm -shra vcts at this time.

For later morning hours. Conditions improve slightly the remainder
of the day with respect to ceilings and rainfall will remain light
as well and even slowly ease through the day.

Marine
Moderate southerly flow remain in place and will remain so through
tonight. By Tuesday high pressure moves over the area and this will
lead to a break down of the winds over the coastal waters with winds
mainly controlled by diurnal fluctuations. Seas will behave with 2-4
feet through tonight lowering to 1-3 after that. Still looks like
conditions begin to become more favorable for nocturnal storms over
the coastal waters mid and late next week.

Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: river flood warnings

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 86 73 92 72 80 30 30 30
btr 89 75 92 74 90 20 30 20
asd 90 76 94 75 70 20 10 20
msy 90 78 94 78 70 10 10 10
gpt 88 78 91 77 70 10 10 20
pql 90 77 93 75 60 10 10 20

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 83 mi63 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 76°F 87°F1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA2 mi40 minSSW 410.00 miLight Rain73°F69°F89%1017.3 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA19 mi22 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F66°F74%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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S8S9S7S9S10S7S7S3NW27
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N4CalmSE3CalmW5SW3S6
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S7S11S8S10S9S8S4S5S5S8S6S5S5S8S6S5SE4SE3SE3SE3S5S8S10

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:47 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:38 AM CDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:33 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:56 PM CDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:16 PM CDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.70.60.50.40.40.50.60.70.91.11.21.31.31.21.110.90.80.80.80.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:47 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:22 AM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:31 PM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:00 PM CDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.70.50.40.40.40.40.50.70.811.11.21.21.110.90.80.80.80.70.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.