Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Roads, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:57PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 3:34 PM CST (21:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 7:37AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 304 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Patchy fog in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Chance of showers through the night.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of rain showers in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of rain showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Rain showers likely.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 304 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis.. Shower activity will return tonight and continue through Saturday as a series of upper level disturbances move across. Winds will become onshore on late Thursday into Friday as a warm front lifts through the coastal waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 201659
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1059 am cst Wed feb 20 2019

Update
Forecast update this morning was performed to freshen weather
grids given surface observation radar trends. A line of showers
and a few thunderstorms continues to very slowly press east just
east of i-55. Latest cam guidance continues to support the idea
that better shear dynamics pushing north of the cwa, with whats
left of the line falling apart. With that said, the severe weather
risk is over for all of SE la and coastal ms for the rest of
today. This front will continue to slow, while better low-level
frontogenesis strengthens pulls back north. We will begin to see
an increase in isentropic forced shower chances later tonight
once again. Additionally, latest SREF probs support persistent
near coastal marine dense fog through the rest of today and
tonight, with a dense fog advisory in effect through early
tomorrow morning. Like yesterday, the northward extent is still
in question, but will be re-evaluated later this
afternoon evening for the potential of an extension. Klg

Prev discussion issued 422 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
short term...

have lowered the dense fog advisory as winds continue to creep up
this morning. Even though winds are capable of maintaining fog
over marine areas up to 18kt, this would not be the case inland,
with the exception of a few locations immediately along the
coast. This is because friction over land is much greater than
over water which causes air to pile up the faster it moves and
lift bringing the fog with it. The much smaller friction values
over water does not provide as much lift. The dp of the air is
around 68 to 70f moving over 60f shelf water temp which will also
help support fog formation over water until it comes inland.

Mornings like this is when the miss river wins out with water
temps of 47f giving rise to strong fog formation as southerly
winds dump it into areas north of the river like msy. This is why
msy has the lowest vis this morning so far. All that said, the fog
advisory will remain over marine areas through 9am today but will
be taken down over land areas.

Light to moderate rain continues to develop this morning over
almost all areas. The main line is well ahead of the cold front at
the moment while the cold front is just passed aex. What a temp
contrast across the front as aex is sitting at 49f and acp in
allen parish at 70f. The front will slowly make its way to a
biloxi-belle chasse line where it will stall just before daylight
Thursday morning, roughly 26 hours to get there from where it is
now. Training rainfall will occur throughout the day well ahead of
and along the front and this is already occurring. The heaviest
so far is from .25" to .50" per hour rates from east orleans into
picayune. But these rates should get a bit higher through the day,
but not necessarily over the same locations, especially as the
frontal boundary moves into the area. Wpc has the entire area,
with the exception of the louisiana gulf coast parishes, in a
marginal risk of excessive and a sliver of the northeast CWA in a
slight risk. Area wide should see 1 to 2 inches through Friday
with locally higher amounts possible. If this falls within a short
time, then some flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas
would occur. The slight risk correlates well with where the
training rainfall is occurring at the moment near the pearl river.

This may remain over that location for several hours today.

The next thing to look at is severity with this system. A few
variables are impressive but most are not. The hardest thing for
development will be a moderate to strong inversion causing the lcl
to be sfc based and the LFC to be above the inversion. Basically,
if there is enough fuel to get a core through this inversion, it
would reach the LFC and go severe. And there is a slight risk of
this occurring over the northeastern most portion of the CWA while
the remainder of the area remains in a marginal risk. What will
not have a problem of getting through this inversion would be
hail and we will mention this variable as well. If things are
capable of getting started today it would be from about 5am today
through the remainder of the day. Helicity values are strong from
0-3km at around 450 but this area includes the inversion level as
well. The area that counts is from the sfc to 1.5km which is a
level beneath the inversion and that figure is very healthy as
well at 290. So basically, we can not rule out all modes of
severe with this system although those that do occur would be
isolated and on the lower end of the range.

The sh TS continue on and off through the end of this fcast cycle.

So instead of giving best chances of rain, it would probably be
better to give lowest chances of rain. This occurs first Thursday
night into Friday morning, and again Friday night into Saturday
morning. Then next and lowest rain chances look to be Sunday. Then
it is quite possible we could see lower chances by mid next week.

Aviation...

ifr to lifr ceilings this morning with bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms noted on radar. Don't really anticipate much
improvement in ceilings during the day. Only ifr or lower
visibilities at present are at kmsy where tower visibilities may
actually be due to cloud, but will see ifr visibilities with shra
and tsra. Will carry vcts in most terminals and amend for prevailing
as and wind issues as necessary. Threat of tsra should end with
front moving into the area late this afternoon early this evening.

Current soundings certainly indicate potential for llws with winds
near 40 knots below fl020. As with other parameters, main threat of
llws should subside behind main tsra area. 35
marine...

will hold onto marine fog advisory through 15z, but winds and
temperatures should start lowering threat levels over the next few
hours. Will carry exercise caution headlines through the day for
sounds and open waters. As winds ease with front becoming stationary
near the coast, do not anticipate headlines being necessary until
the next system approaches on Saturday. 35
decision support...

dss code: blue, potentially yellow.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: river flood warnings marine fog advisory radar
support for slight marginal risk.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 71 53 67 63 100 80 70 50
btr 71 54 71 66 100 80 70 40
asd 73 60 74 66 90 70 40 30
msy 73 60 75 67 90 60 40 30
gpt 71 62 71 66 90 70 40 30
pql 73 65 75 67 90 70 40 40

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Dense fog advisory until 6 am cst Thursday for laz066>070.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 6 am cst Thursday for gmz532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.

Ms... Dense fog advisory until 6 am cst Thursday for msz080>082.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 6 am cst Thursday for gmz534-536-538-
550-552-555-557.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 83 mi40 min SW 5.1 G 9.9 72°F 65°F1012 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA2 mi75 minNW 610.00 miOvercast54°F48°F82%1013.9 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA19 mi41 minWNW 810.00 miLight Rain56°F53°F90%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM CST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:04 AM CST     1.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:09 PM CST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:59 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:36 PM CST     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.80.91.11.21.110.70.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.400.50.811.110.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:25 AM CST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:39 AM CST     1.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:53 PM CST     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:59 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:25 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:11 PM CST     1.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.811.11.110.70.4-0-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.30.70.9110.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.