Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Roads, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 5:09PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 9:26 AM CST (15:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:19PMMoonset 11:12PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 315 Am Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 6 am cst early this morning...
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Northeast winds up to 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..Southeast winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 315 Am Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis.. A cold high pressure system over the southern plains will continue to build into the coastal waters with strong and gusty northerly winds through the night. However winds will gradually weaken early Wednesday as the high advances closer to the region. Winds will then swing around to a southerly direction by late in the period as the high moves east of the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 141401
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
801 am cst Wed nov 14 2018

Sounding discussion
This morning's balloon launch was successful, and there were no
issues. Looking at the sounding, the overall atmospheric profile
is moist. The CAPE is 1 j kg and the CIN is 0 j kg in the mixed
layer, indicating a lack of convection in the atmosphere. There
may still be a stray shower or two in the area. The vertical wind
profile is mostly uniform with height. At the surface, the winds
are westerly and weak (5 knots). At the lower, middle, and upper
levels, the winds are strong (120 knots) and southwesterly. Msw

Prev discussion issued 352 am cst Wed nov 14 2018
short term...

an upper level low centered over northeast texas will be pushing east-
northeast across arkansas today. This will finally bring an end to
the ongoing wet period. Radar imagery this morning shows the back
side of the rain shield to be just south of a houma to chalmette to
bay st louis line. Medium range and meso models all agree that the
rain will slowly by steadily shift east throughout the day with
slight differences on timing. The latest forecast is a blend of
those solutions. Post frontal air mass remains well entrenched and
the combination of overcast skies and strong cold air advection will
limit warming considerably. Highs will once again struggle to get
out of the mid 40s which is only a few degrees from the current temp
and 25 to 30 degrees below normal.

Long term...

the remainder of this week and into the weekend looks to be a dry
forecast as surface high pressure builds in and upper level
troughing remains in place. Continental air mass will be bringing
the first light freeze of this fall season to the area Thursday
morning. The met and mav have tightened up on the differences but
the met is still the cooler of the 2. For tonight's lows, blended
the met and mav. Those numbers are fairly similar to previous
forecasts, so have upgraded the freeze watch to a warning for the
same parishes counties. As the surface ridge building in shifts to
just northeast of the area on Friday morning, will likely have cold
air drainage in northeastern portions of the CWA (from mcb to asd to
pql). Those areas may once again dip down to freeze or just below.

Temperatures will be moderating Friday and Saturday as the upper low
ejects northeast. The GFS and moreso ECMWF indicate that a weak
upper level inflection will bring a reinforcing cold front through
the CWA Sunday night. Rain chances are not very likely as it will be
a moisture starved boundary due to a lack of return flow ahead of it
and generally just slightly strengthen northerly surface flow.

Meffer
aviation...

ceilings will slowly rise from ovc010 to ovc020 late in the day.

After ceilings go to ovc020, skc will not be far behind but may be
just after dark for most locations. This will occur from west to
east, and will try to time this accordingly. Some -ra and dz will
persist through about 18z along and east of a line from asd to msy.

This may be the case for most of the day at gpt. Some weak vis
restrictions down to around 3sm due to the dz or br will occur at
several sites through the morning hours.

Marine...

strong north winds will remain over the gulf waters today. These
conditions will likely stay through tonight and possibly even into
Thursday before easing. SCA flags have been extended through today
for the outer waters while caution conditions should hold over the
inner waters. Wind speeds will slowly ease through the remainder of
the week and should be back down to around 10kt by the end of the
week.

Decision support...

dss code: green
deployed: none
activation: none
activities: none

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 41 28 50 30 10 10 0 0
btr 44 30 52 32 10 10 0 0
asd 46 30 52 31 40 10 0 0
msy 46 35 52 39 30 10 0 0
gpt 46 32 52 34 70 10 0 0
pql 46 30 52 30 80 20 0 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Thursday for
laz034>037-039-040-046>050-056>059-065-071-072.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz570-572-
575-577.

Ms... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Thursday for
msz068>071-077-080>082.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz572-575-
577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 83 mi189 min NW 2.9 G 8 38°F 57°F1027.9 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA2 mi89 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast37°F32°F81%1029.8 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA19 mi34 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast37°F33°F86%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW5N7N4N3CalmN5NW3NW8
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2 days agoE3CalmE3N5N4N3NE6NE5NE6NE5NE4NE5N9NE10NE6--E6E7E7E5E8SE9SE6NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM CST     1.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:19 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:07 PM CST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.71.61.61.61.51.51.41.41.31.31.210.90.70.50.40.40.40.50.70.91.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:16 AM CST     1.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:18 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:51 PM CST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.51.51.51.41.41.31.31.21.21.110.80.60.50.40.40.40.50.60.811.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.