Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Roads, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:22PM Monday March 27, 2017 11:24 AM CDT (16:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:51AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 929 Am Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 929 Am Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis.. Modest southerly flow will continue today between an area of high pressure to the east and an area of low pressure tracking from the southern plains northeast toward the mid mississippi river valley. Winds will subside a bit tonight as this low continues to pull away from the area, but are forecast to begin to strengthen again on Tuesday as another low pressure system emerges east of the rockies. Brisk south winds will continue Wednesday as this feature tracks eastward across the plains, subsequently pulling a frontal boundary through the coastal waters Thursday afternoon or evening. A brief period of offshore flow will follow the frontal passage, with southerly winds returning by Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 271302
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
802 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Sounding discussion...

the atmosphere is stable for our area today thanks to a strong cap
near 700 mb. Otherwise though, there are several parameters
indicative of the severe storm threat today well to the north
across mississippi into tennessee. Very little fog this morning
since conditions remained breezy overnight. Onshore flow is
strong, 20 kts at just 1000 ft. Winds become more westerly with
height. Another warm and humid day is expected.

Krautmann

Prev discussion /issued 331 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017/
short term...

a mid/upper level short wave trough will traverse the mid and
lower mississippi valley today bringing a threat of isolated to
scattered convection to the forecast area. The best dynamics and
support for convection will reside to the north of the local area
with this system. As a result, the best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be across our southwest mississippi counties
and the adjacent parishes of southeast louisiana with decreasing
chances farther to the south. Even across our northern areas, pops
will be kept in the 30 to 40 percent range. An isolated strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out across the far northern reaches
of the area where SPC has outlooked a marginal risk for severe
weather. The main threats in these areas would be damaging winds
and large hail.

A few showers and storms could linger into the evening hours
across the far northern sections of the forecast area. Otherwise,
quiet conditions will prevail tonight with some fog development
expected after midnight that will persist through early Tuesday
morning. Tuesday should be warm and mostly dry with upper level
ridging over the gulf coast states. Models continue to indicate
the possibility of some convection across the area during the day
Tuesday, although any chance should be rather small. Plan to
confine the mention of any chance for convection across the
northern most sections of the p/cwa which will be closer to a
stalled out front to our north. 11
long term...

a warm but occasionally unsettled period is on tap for the area
as a couple of potentially strong systems affect the region during
the period. Wednesday should be dry as upper level ridging over
the southeast CONUS shifts to the east. The threat for convection
will begin to increase from the west Wednesday night and continue
through Thursday night as a potent upper low/trough moving out of
the southern plains Wednesday translates eastward across the lower
and mid mississippi valley region Thursday and Thursday night.

This system will have the potential to produce some strong to
severe thunderstorms across the area along with locally heavy
rainfall Thursday and Thursday night before shifting off to the
east.

A quiet period will commence on Friday and continue into Saturday
as upper level ridging builds back over the south ahead of yet
another strong system that will impact our weather for the latter
half of the weekend and into the beginning of the following work
week. There are still some differences between the models with the
strength, evolution and timing of this system, but at this time it
appears that the path of this vigorous system will be farther
south than its predecessor and will move across the lower
mississippi valley during the aforementioned time period. This
system is still seven to eight days out, but there appears to be
some potential for a severe weather and possibly heavy rainfall
threat with it. 11
aviation...

most terminals reporting ceilings in the ifr or lower end of MVFR,
although several sites have occasionally gone scattered. Expect the
ifr/MVFR ceilings to predominate during the rest of the night and
through mid morning. If winds drop off, could also see visibilities
fall to near 3sm. Will continue mention of potential tsra at kmcb
and kbtr during the day, although will need to use vcts as pop/areal
coverage not high enough to carry prevailing. Will also mention of
vcsh at kgpt. Outside of convection, anticipate late morning and
afternoon to haveVFR conditions. Once again, expect low cloud
development during the overnight period tonight with MVFR to ifr
ceilings developing, primarily after 06z Tuesday. 35
marine...

winds over coastal waters today will be near the 15 knot threshold
for starting to consider small craft exercise caution headlines.

For now, will hold off and day shift can issue if they get up into
the 17-18 knot range. More likely to need headlines Wednesday
into Friday morning, then again late Saturday. 35
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: assessing convective threats for this week.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 82 63 83 62 / 40 20 20 10
btr 83 63 84 63 / 30 10 10 10
asd 81 63 82 63 / 20 10 10 10
msy 82 66 81 66 / 20 10 10 10
gpt 79 66 79 65 / 20 10 10 10
pql 80 63 81 62 / 20 10 10 10

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 83 mi55 min SSE 7 G 15 79°F 74°F1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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S14
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SE11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA2 mi30 minS 11 G 1410.00 mi76°F67°F74%1015.2 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA19 mi32 minSSE 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F66°F67%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S5S8S10S9
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S7S5S7S4S5SE3S5S4S5SE3S4SE4SE6SE5S10S11
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1 day agoSE9S14
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SW6W5S5S9S8S6S6S6S6CalmCalmCalmS4CalmSE3CalmCalmSE4SE3S5
2 days agoSE9
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S7S11
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S6SE9SW5W5SE7SE6SE5S7

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:27 AM CDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM CDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:07 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.811.21.41.41.41.210.70.50.40.30.40.50.811.21.21.210.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana
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Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM CDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:17 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:07 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:38 PM CDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.40.40.50.70.80.80.80.70.50.40.20.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.70.60.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.