Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Roads, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 9:11 PM CDT (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:59AMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 343 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 343 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017
Synopsis.. An upper level trof of low pressure over the northwest gulf coupled with a surface trough of low pressure along the texas coast will result in modest east to southeast winds and numerous showers and Thunderstorms through Thursday. More scattered showers and Thunderstorms expected Friday. High pressure builds over the area by Saturday resulting in drier conditions through the weekend and much of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Roads, LA
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location: 30.7, -91.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 282101
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
401 pm cdt Wed jun 28 2017

Short term
A residual frontal boundary stalled across the northern gulf
coast will be the focus for high rain chances tonight through
tomorrow and again on Friday as the boundary lifts north. The
upper air sounding this morning showed precip water around 2
inches. This number will creep up about 10% overnight and tomorrow
morning with further column saturation (mainly in the upper
levels) and a slight increase in low level dewpoints. This will
push atmospheric moisture to near the average MAX for this time if
year. That means rain chances will be very high and the potential
for flash flooding is also above normal. So while it may seem
normal for heavy rainfall in the summer, this seems to be an
uptick above that but not to flash flood watch levels. 1 to 3
inches will be possible through tomorrow afternoon with a focus on
points further south in the cwa. The 80% pops for much of the cwa
may be on the conservative side and possible need overnight shift
to go with 100% as the ECMWF and hrrr suggest. The lower coverage
of QPF of the GFS is why didn't go to 100 yet.

Model soundings show dry air moving in across all levels on Friday.

This reduction in precip water will result in lower coverage with
convection become more summer-like and diurnally driven. This should
also allow temperatures to moderate back up into the upper 80s.

Tstrm placement looks to shift further north as well with highest
pops along and north of i-12.

Long term
Model outputs for this weekend show the bermuda ridge extending
across the gom and northern gulf coast with a northern stream trough
racing across the mid and upper mississippi river valley. This will
suppress afternoon convection quite a bit, bring down pops to around
30% Saturday and 10-20% on Sunday. Meanwhile, temperatures will
continue to moderate with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Going into next week, a piece of the bermuda ridge will break off in
the central gom and try to remain there for a few days. This will
keep most of the CWA dry through Wednesday outside of a random storm
or 2. If anyone gets rain during this time, it will be areas in
sw coastal mississippi or adjacent louisiana parishes.

Meffer

Aviation
Numerous showers and thunderstorms have develop across the area.

Although, convection typically dissipates with sunset, this isn't
likely today. Showers and storms will persist overnight. Lower
ceilings will continue as well. MVFR conditions will prevail
overnight with periods of ifr conditions as storms move over
terminals and reduce visibilities with heavy rainfall.

Meffer

Marine
Onshore flow has generally returned and will be in place through
the remainder of the forecast period. A slight compression in the
pressure gradient in the nwrn gulf has spread into coastal waters
west of the mississippi river. This will bring winds to right at
15 knots this evening and overnight. Therefore, will have exercise
caution headline in those zones. Winds will gradually weaken each
day there after as a surface ridge develops near the central gulf.

Seas will mimic the winds and subside from 3 to 5 feet to 2 feet
or less from tonight to next week.

Meffer

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: monitoring hydro
decision support services (dss) code legend green = no weather
impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = high impacts; slight to
moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; hazmat or
other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 71 82 72 86 40 70 30 70
btr 72 84 75 88 50 80 40 60
asd 73 82 75 88 70 80 40 60
msy 75 82 76 88 70 80 40 50
gpt 74 81 76 85 70 80 40 60
pql 73 82 75 86 70 80 40 60

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 83 mi42 min ESE 5.1 G 8 78°F 84°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Roads False River Regional Airport, LA2 mi37 minSE 510.00 mi75°F71°F89%1014.6 hPa
Baton Rouge, Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field, LA19 mi19 minE 410.00 miOvercast75°F72°F90%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from HZR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SE8SW5SE3N4E3S6S5S4SE5SE6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3NE3NE4E3NE3E3E3CalmNE3CalmNE3CalmE3
2 days agoNE4CalmNE3E4E4E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE4E4NE4CalmCalmE3CalmE3NE6NE5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:20 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:01 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:33 AM CDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM CDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:24 PM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-00.30.611.31.41.41.41.21.1110.90.90.9110.9

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana
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Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:18 AM CDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:09 PM CDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:28 PM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:21 PM CDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.10000.10.20.40.60.70.80.90.90.80.70.60.60.50.50.50.50.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.