Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Roads, LA
May 11, 2024 11:21 AM CDT (16:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 7:59 AM Moonset 11:00 PM |
GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 1031 Am Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Rest of today - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Tonight - East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters rough. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Thunderstorms likely. Showers likely.
Tuesday - West winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters light chop.
Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 1031 Am Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis - Moderate offshore flow will gradually diminish and shift more east to southeast through the day. Onshore flow will become better established and strengthen on Sunday as surface high pressure moves off to the east and low pressure develops over the plains. Onshore flow will persist through midweek until passage of a cold front. Shower and Thunderstorm chances will increase tonight into Sunday, with off and on rain chances expected through midweek.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 110856 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 356 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
The upper ridging is now starting to drop into the NW CONUS and forcing the upper troughing over the west to begin moving SE and will eventually orient itself more meridionally. The flow over our area has become more zonal and as the upper trough gets a bit closer and orients N-S, it will cause a strong divergent area as it couples with the zonal flow to the south of it. This will set the stage for several disturbances to be produced after today as there will be more upper support for these storms to develop. Not much expected with Sunday's system as most of it will be to the north of the area.
But there is a chance that several locations in our area could see some showers and maybe a Tstorm. The highest chances of rain should be over SW Miss and adjacent parishes of LA during the day. The better chance of rain will come with the first disturbance that moves though overnight Sunday into Monday. Models are having issues resolving the placement, but this should come close enough to the northern portion of the area to get most if not all the area some rain.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Small mesoscale distubances will continue to be produced by this upper trough to the west and will have support downstream as there will be plenty of upper divergent flow due to the interaction between the upper trough and the old zonal flow over the gulf south that will now start to buckle into an upper ridge pattern over the eastern gulf into FL. The problem with each of these disturbances is to find where they will be each day so we will know which areas will most likely get storms and watering. Each one of these will need to be closely monitored for the production of severe storms and heavy rainfall. We are fairly sure of the heavy rainfall picture and this could be a daily or every other day event through the week. Even though these storms will be transitory, the more they move over, the more saturation will occur and then won't take much to cause some flooding with strong rain rates. Models will have disagreements with each other concerning these small systems. So we will need to see where they initialize and use those models that have the initialization correct. The second one after Sunday night looks to move rapidly east Monday after initializing near or south of Austin Tx Monday morning and be near or over our area by Monday evening after sunset.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
VFR through this taf period.
MARINE
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
A cold front will settle over the northern gulf today. Small craft advisories will be for a short time this morning and should lower by mid morning. Winds will ease through the day today and remain that way through Sunday morning. Winds will then begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt as the old boundary starts to move north.
Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the northern gulf. There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters through the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 80 61 79 64 / 10 10 20 60 BTR 86 67 85 71 / 10 10 30 60 ASD 85 66 84 70 / 0 10 10 50 MSY 83 72 84 73 / 0 10 20 50 GPT 85 66 83 70 / 0 10 10 50 PQL 86 64 85 68 / 0 0 0 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ550-552- 555-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ552-555- 570-572-575-577.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 356 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
The upper ridging is now starting to drop into the NW CONUS and forcing the upper troughing over the west to begin moving SE and will eventually orient itself more meridionally. The flow over our area has become more zonal and as the upper trough gets a bit closer and orients N-S, it will cause a strong divergent area as it couples with the zonal flow to the south of it. This will set the stage for several disturbances to be produced after today as there will be more upper support for these storms to develop. Not much expected with Sunday's system as most of it will be to the north of the area.
But there is a chance that several locations in our area could see some showers and maybe a Tstorm. The highest chances of rain should be over SW Miss and adjacent parishes of LA during the day. The better chance of rain will come with the first disturbance that moves though overnight Sunday into Monday. Models are having issues resolving the placement, but this should come close enough to the northern portion of the area to get most if not all the area some rain.
LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Small mesoscale distubances will continue to be produced by this upper trough to the west and will have support downstream as there will be plenty of upper divergent flow due to the interaction between the upper trough and the old zonal flow over the gulf south that will now start to buckle into an upper ridge pattern over the eastern gulf into FL. The problem with each of these disturbances is to find where they will be each day so we will know which areas will most likely get storms and watering. Each one of these will need to be closely monitored for the production of severe storms and heavy rainfall. We are fairly sure of the heavy rainfall picture and this could be a daily or every other day event through the week. Even though these storms will be transitory, the more they move over, the more saturation will occur and then won't take much to cause some flooding with strong rain rates. Models will have disagreements with each other concerning these small systems. So we will need to see where they initialize and use those models that have the initialization correct. The second one after Sunday night looks to move rapidly east Monday after initializing near or south of Austin Tx Monday morning and be near or over our area by Monday evening after sunset.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
VFR through this taf period.
MARINE
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024
A cold front will settle over the northern gulf today. Small craft advisories will be for a short time this morning and should lower by mid morning. Winds will ease through the day today and remain that way through Sunday morning. Winds will then begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt as the old boundary starts to move north.
Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over the northern gulf. There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern gulf waters through the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 80 61 79 64 / 10 10 20 60 BTR 86 67 85 71 / 10 10 30 60 ASD 85 66 84 70 / 0 10 10 50 MSY 83 72 84 73 / 0 10 20 50 GPT 85 66 83 70 / 0 10 10 50 PQL 86 64 85 68 / 0 0 0 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ550-552- 555-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ552-555- 570-572-575-577.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHZR FALSE RIVER RGNL,LA | 2 sm | 26 min | W 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 54°F | 47% | 30.02 | |
| KBTR BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN, RYAN FIELD,LA | 20 sm | 88 min | NE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 54°F | 47% | 30.02 |
Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:20 AM CDT -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:03 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 11:48 AM CDT 1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:20 AM CDT -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:03 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 11:48 AM CDT 1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.3 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| -0.4 |
| 5 am |
| -0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana, Tide feet
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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