Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 3:50 AM   Moonset 3:58 PM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 439 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Today - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog after midnight. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 439 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 041001 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Satellite nighttime microphysics and area observations show that patchy to areas of fog has developed once again across the area early this morning. The best coverage (and lowest visibilities)
seems to be confined to portions of Baldwin county and the western FL Panhandle, where skies are more clear. Elsewhere, mid to upper clouds have been helping to keep coverage rather limited and overall visibilities are generally above 3SM. However, upper clouds over southeast MS and southwest AL appear to be thinning out, setting the expectation that fog will increase in coverage and density in these areas over the next couple of hours. Because of this, a Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect through 9AM CDT for much of the area, except for portions of south central Alabama (where mid level clouds remain rather prominent) and along the immediate coast. Fog will begin dissipating by around 9AM.

A general zonal to northwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected through to continue through the period as an upper ridge builds over the western Gulf. Two weak shortwaves, embedded within this flow aloft, look to move overhead through the period... the first this afternoon into the early evening hours, and the other late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. At the surface, large high pressure over the western Atlantic allows for southerly winds to continue through the period. Daytime heating, in combination with weak forcing from the shortwaves aloft, and ample moisture in place from the persistent southerly flow, should allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon, primarily over interior areas. Weak shear in place will help to keep convection disorganized and pulse-like in nature, likely developing off the sea breeze boundary at first, and spreading via outflow boundary collisions. As is the case for this type of convection, cannot rule out one or two stronger storms that would be capable of producing gusty downdraft winds.

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid to upper 60s. A Moderate risk of rip currents continues through the weekend.
Additional fog development is once again possible tonight across much of the area. Fog may become dense in spots so we will monitor the need for another Dense Fog Advisory. /96

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Sunday night into Monday, upper ridging begins to build across the region, amplifying further on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough moves into the Plains states. Will still have a chance for showers and storms over our interior zones on Monday before the ridge becomes firmly established and another shortwave aloft moves east across the area, but dry conditions will then prevail Tuesday through Wednesday with the increased ridging. By Thursday, upper flow becomes more zonal and a cold front will be approaching the region from the west, and with continued southerly flow bringing increased moisture, we will again be looking at a chance of showers and storms over interior portions of the forecast area again by Thursday afternoon through Friday. The front will be getting close to our forecast area on Friday, so PoPs will probably be highest that day, but still only about 30 percent or so. The front should move east across our area sometime late Friday night.

The temperature forecast will be on the rise through the first half of the longer term forecast period as subsidence from the upper ridging increases. Highs on Monday will primarily still be in the mid to upper 80s across the area, but on Tuesday look for upper 80s and lower 90s. On Wednesday and Thursday max temperatures will be even warmer with highs mainly in the lower 90s, except mid to upper 80s at the coast. Heat indices will climb into the mid to upper 90s for many locations each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday, which could lead to heat stress concerns. Still in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area on Friday as well.
Overnight lows mainly in the 60s each night, Sunday through Tuesday (lower 70s along the coast), then primarily in the low to mid 70s across the entire area Wednesday and Thursday nights.
DS/12

MARINE
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week.
Slightly higher winds are expected during the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.
Seas offshore will gradually increase to around 3 feet by the early to middle part of the week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 86 68 86 69 85 70 86 71 / 20 10 10 10 20 0 10 0 Pensacola 84 70 83 70 82 71 83 73 / 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 Destin 82 70 82 71 82 73 82 74 / 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 89 65 89 64 87 66 89 68 / 40 20 20 10 30 0 10 0 Waynesboro 88 64 88 66 87 67 89 69 / 40 20 30 10 30 0 20 0 Camden 88 65 88 65 85 66 89 68 / 30 20 30 20 30 10 20 0 Crestview 89 64 89 64 87 66 88 68 / 20 10 10 0 20 0 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>053- 059-261>264.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201-203- 205.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...None.

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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Sat -- 03:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:16 AM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:25 PM CDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:35 PM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

Lower Hall Landing
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Sat -- 03:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:21 AM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:24 PM CDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:30 PM CDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

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