Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mobile, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:10PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 4:28 PM CDT (21:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:17AMMoonset 7:59PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 256 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. A moderate chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Patchy fog.
Thursday..South winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming choppy. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Choppy becoming a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 8 to 13 knots. A moderate chop becoming a light chop.
Friday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy to rough. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 256 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis..Surface high pressure to the east maintains onshore flow through Wednesday...increasing on Thursday as a front approaches from the west. Due to the increase and duration of the southerly fetch Thursday and Thursday night...seas trend higher. Thunderstorms increase in coverage. The front looks to make passage early Friday morning...bringing a moderate westerly flow during the day Friday in its wake. Onshore flow returns over the weekend and shows a greater increase by Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mobile, AL
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location: 30.71, -88.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 281747 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1247 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
18z issuance... Sct to broken CU with bases from 3 to 5 kft this
afternoon. South to southwest wind 7 to 13 kts. Could be a passing
-shra from time to time. Residence time of -shra over any one area
will be short. Patchy night-time br forms with vsby generally 3
to 5 sm by and after 29.02z along with lowering stratus. Vsby
potentially lowering to lifr/vlifr categories in fg during the
pre-dawn hours Wednesday at mob/bfm. Early am lifr CIGS due to
fg. /10

Prev discussion /issued 1111 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Short wave upper level ridge has moved atop the region
today with a surface ridge of high pressure positioned from off
the mid-atlantic to the eastern gulf. To the northwest of this
high, frontal zone was draped from the ohio river valley to lower
ms river valley, westward to northern tx. Deep layer moisture
(pwats from 1 to 1.25 inches) persists over the southeast us.

Although presence of the ridge aloft acts to counter shower/storm
coverage today, enough deep layer moisture and afternoon instability
will be enough to maintain at least a small chance of convective
development. Coverage though looks to be very isolated with
chances 10-20%. A warm spring day with highs in the lower to mid
80s for much of the area. /10
prev discussion... /issued 654 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
discussion... See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update... Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly
to reflect current conditions mentioning mostly patchy fog for
early this morning and introducing more patchy fog late tonight
and early Wed morning. 32/ee
aviation...

12z issuance... MVFR to ifr CIGS and visibilities through about
28.14z followed by mostlyVFR conditions through about 29.03z then
MVFR to ifr CIGS and visibilities through 29.12z. Lower CIGS and
visibilities mostly from low stratus and patchy fog this morning
and again late tonight and early Wed morning. Winds will be mostly
south at 5 knots or less early this morning then 8 to 13 knots
with gusts to around 20 knots during the late morning and
afternoon hours diminishing to 3 to 5 knots by mid evening...

continuing through 29.12z. 32/ee
prev discussion... /issued 605 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
near term /now through Tuesday night/... Departing mid level short
wave trof to our northeast is followed by a sharp mid to upper
ridge of high pressure moving eastward over the lower mississippi
river and central gulf today and tonight. Ridge axis stretches
from the al/ga line to the eastern gulf by 12z wed. Well to the
west a deep mid to upper low center moves from the lower rockies
to the lower plains by 12z Wed with several mid level impulses
rounding the base of this upper system ejecting east northeast
across east texas and the mid to lower mississippi river valley
through tonight. With this pattern weak lift is noted in the mid
levels across the central gulf coast region today and early
tonight helping to initiate a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms across lower parts of the forecast area early today
then shifting more inland by afternoon. Latest model soundings
continue to show limited surface based instability also through
tonight combined with a moderate capping inversion between 2 and
3 kft. As a result will keep only isolated coverage of showers
and thunderstorms for today... Shifting further inland by afternoon
followed by no coverage this evening and overnight. With better
ridging aloft will also continue to mention areas of fog for most
inland locations early today reforming again overnight and early
wed morning. As for temps due to increased cloud coverage
through tonight will lean very close to the current mav MOS for
highs today and lean towards the warmer MOS numbers for lows
tonight. Highs today will range from the lower to middle 80s for
inland areas and the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast.

Lows tonight will range from the lower to middle 60s for all
areas. 32/ee
short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/... Forecast area
will be between weather systems on Wednesday, with upper ridge
axis shifting just to the east of the region and southwesterly
flow developing aloft. It is this southwesterly flow aloft that
will bring in shortwave energy in from the west Thursday and
Thursday night, although models differ quite a bit on strength of
of energy. 28/00z GFS is strongest with energy aloft moving in,
ecmwf much weaker and NAM (at least at 12z Thursday) somewhere in
between the other two solutions. Agree with wpc model diagnostic
discussion this morning that the GFS is very likely showing signs
of convective feedback, which is forcing the much stronger solution,
and as they suggest and we prefer, we will be leaning more toward
the ECMWF at this point. Even so, upper jet moving from west coast
into the central portion of the country through mid week will
carve out a highly amplified upper level trough over the southern
rockies with an embedded closed mid level low pressure area
developing over the new mexico Wednesday and then lifting
northeast across texas panhandle to southern illinois by late
Thursday night and early predawn hours Friday. At the same time,
the southern portion of the mid level trough is expected to swing
east with axis more or less across our forecast area by sunrise
Friday morning.

A surface low pressure area is still forecast to have develop
over southwest oklahoma region by early Wednesday and also
reach the southern illinois/indiana area by late Thursday night,
with an associated cold front approaching our forecast area from
the west Thursday afternoon and moving east across the area
Thursday night.

Onshore low/mid flow ahead of the system will advect moisture
northward across the region, with precipitable water values
climbing to between 1.5 to 1.7 inches Thursday afternoon and
evening. Models advertise SBCAPE values generally in the 700 to
900 j/kg range on Thursday, with sfc-3km storm relative helicity
values ranging from 200 to 400 m2/s2. A 35 to 40 knot low level
jet is also expected to accompany this system. In addition, models
still suggesting 700-500mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 c/km
range. As such, the pre-storm environment will favor the
development of strong to severe thunderstorms throughout the day
Thursday into Thursday night as a line of numerous storms advances
east through the region. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated
tornadoes are all possible with this system. The storm prediction
center has now outlooked most of our forecast area with a slight
chance for severe weather on Thursday and Thursday evening. In
addition to the strong and possibly severe storms, heavy rainfall
is also possible, with widespread 1 to 2 inches likely.

Temperatures above normal through the period. Highs in the
mid/upper 70s to low/mid 80s. Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

12/ds
long term /Friday through Monday/... The precipitation will then
taper off from west to east late Thursday night and early Friday
in the wake of the cold front, followed by high pressure briefly
building over the region. The dry period will then persist
through the early part of the weekend as an upper ridge and
surface high pressure dominate the southeast states. Precipitation
chances will increase once again early next week as yet another
upper level trough develops to our west and advances east over the
southern plains, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
forecast for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Some indications
that another round of severe weather is possible by Monday and we
will continue to monitor for this possibility. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the long term. 12/ds
marine... Expect a moderate onshore flow to continue over the marine
area through early Thu then build by Thu afternoon through early fri
ahead of an upper level disturbance and surface cold front
approaching from the west. Similar to the last couple of days,
higher wind velocities can be expected each afternoon through thu
due to afternoon heating or local seabreeze effects. With this
seas will continue to range from 2 to 4 feet offshore with choppy
to occasional rough conditions over area bays and sounds. A
moderate to strong west to northwest flow is expected in the wake
of the front Fri through early Sat with seas building to 4 to 6
ft. 32/ee

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 0 mi41 min 74°F 68°F1015.1 hPa
PTOA1 3 mi41 min 76°F 69°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 4 mi41 min S 11 G 18 75°F 74°F1015.4 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 6 mi59 min S 15 73°F 1014.9 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 19 mi59 min S 14 74°F 1015.9 hPa
WBYA1 23 mi41 min 78°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 23 mi104 min 78°F 69°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 29 mi59 min SSW 9.9 1015.2 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 32 mi104 min S 9.9 76°F 1017 hPa69°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 32 mi29 min S 8 G 9.9 74°F 1014.8 hPa (-2.1)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 33 mi59 min S 11 1015.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 33 mi41 min S 8 G 8.9 74°F
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 35 mi41 min 75°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 36 mi41 min S 9.9 G 13 77°F 1014.9 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 36 mi41 min 75°F
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 37 mi41 min S 13 G 15 74°F 1015.2 hPa
PPTA1 39 mi59 min S 8 76°F 1016.3 hPa
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 42 mi41 min S 9.9 G 12 76°F 1016 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 49 mi41 min SSW 8 G 11

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL5 mi36 minSSE 13 G 1910.00 miFair78°F70°F76%1015 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL11 mi33 minS 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F62°F53%1014.6 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL19 mi54 minS 810.00 miOvercast77°F69°F79%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S9S9
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S10S9S7S6S43CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS6SE8SE11SE13SE12SE13SE12
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1 day agoS9
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S8S7S8SE8S7S7S5S8S6S7S63S3S4S3E8E11SE12S12SE12SE13
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2 days agoS15
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CalmSE4SE13SE5SE8SE6SE7SE12SE12SE11SE8SE7S7S8S6SE7SE8SE8SE9SE12SE12S10S9

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Tue -- 02:37 AM CDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:50 AM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:40 PM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:58 PM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.90.90.90.90.80.70.60.60.60.60.70.70.80.90.90.90.90.80.70.60.50.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:52 AM CDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:54 AM CDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:54 PM CDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:58 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.70.70.80.80.80.80.80.70.60.60.50.50.50.60.70.80.80.80.80.80.70.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.