Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mobile, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 4:54PM Sunday November 19, 2017 12:23 AM CST (06:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:13AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 936 Pm Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north. Rough. Showers likely late in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Choppy to rough becoming choppy.
Sunday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Choppy becoming a light chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east 3 to 8 knots. A light chop becoming smooth.
Monday night..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Smooth becoming smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy to rough.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy to rough.
Thursday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 936 Pm Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to shift east to the eastern seaboard and western atlantic through tonight in response to a strong cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move across the marine area late tonight through Sunday morning leading to a strong offshore flow occurring throughout most of the day on Sunday. Northerly winds and seas will gradually subside Sunday night through early Monday. Frequent gusts to gale force, occurring mostly over the open gulf waters, will also be possible in the wake of the front early Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mobile, AL
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location: 30.71, -88.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 190555 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1155 pm cst Sat nov 18 2017

Discussion See updated information for land and marine areas
below.

Update The fast moving strong cold front has moved south of
the alabama coast, and will move south of the florida coast
between now and 12:30 am. The thin line of light to moderate rain
showers along the front will continue to move quickly to the
southeast at around 30 mph, exiting the extreme southeast portion
of the forecast area around 1 am Sunday. North-northwest winds
will continue behind the front, with gusts to near 25 mph inland
areas and around 30 mph along the coast, through the overnight
hours. A high wind advisory for the coastal sections of alabama
and the western florida panhandle remains in effect, and will
begin at midnight. Updated the public forecasts to make further
adjustments to the timing of the departing precipitation and
hourly temperatures. Updated products have been sent. 22

Marine Expect frequent gusts to gale force over the coastal
waters from destin, fl to pensacola, fl, so added that segment to
the gale warning through 9 am Sunday. Also, expect winds to lower
below small craft advisory for the bays and sounds by noon Sunday,
so updated the marine products to account for this. 22

Aviation
06z issuance... Cold front is making steady southeastward progress
across the forecast area. Wind shift has occurred at mob and bfm
and will soon occur at pns. A brief reduction to MVFR vsby in
shra expected at pns thru 07z, then ending. MVFR CIGS along and
ahead of front. Following front, bases lift and although remaining
cloudy, CIGS at mid to higher levels above 4kft remainder of night.

Main impacts to approaches and departures will be gusty northwest to
northerly flow following frontal passage. 10

Prev discussion issued 753 pm cst Sat nov 18 2017
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... A strong cold front is fast approaching from the
northwest, currently extending from near birmingham, al to baton
rouge, la. This cold front will enter into the northwest portion
of the forecast area with the next hour, and move south of the
alabama coast between 11:00 and 11:30 pm, and south of the
florida coast between 11:30 pm and 12:30 am. A thin line of light
to moderate rain showers ahead of the front has just entered the
extreme northwest portion of the forecast area, and will move
quickly to the southeast at around 35 mph across the area, exiting
the extreme southeast portion of the forecast area around 1 am
Sunday.

No lightning has been observed in the southern extent of the
line, as most of the lightning has been confined to northern
alabama. Updated the public forecasts to adjust the timing of this
fast moving line, removed mention of thunderstorms, and made a
few changes to the expected precipitation amounts. Brief strong
north-northwest winds will occur behind the front, with gusts to
near 30 mph. These winds will be marginal for a high wind advisory
inland areas, but due to the brief nature and only reaching
borderline criteria, will hold off for now. A high wind advisory
for the coastal sections of alabama and the western florida
panhandle remains in effect, and will begin at midnight. Updated
products have been sent. 22
prev discussion... Issued 554 pm cst Sat nov 18 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance...VFR conditions will precede a narrow band of
showers along a strong cold front approaching the northern gulf
coast region from the northwest. MVFR visibilities due to light
to moderate rain will occur with the passage of the line between
19.03z thru 19.05z for mob and bfm, and between 19.04z thru 19.06z
for pns. Southwest winds 9 to 14 knots will shift toward the west
as the line of showers nears the TAF sites. Winds will then shift
to the north-northwest on the backside of the showers, with
sustained winds between 15 to 20 knots, gusting to near 30 knots.

Skies will clear early Sunday morning. 22
prev discussion... Issued 355 pm cst Sat nov 18 2017
near term now through Sunday ... Gusty southwest winds at 18 to 28
mph will continue across many locations of the forecast area through
this evening ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west.

Latest hi res data also shows some instability or CAPE combined with
moderate vertical shear ahead of the front through this evening.

With this have mentioned a slight chance for an isolated
thunderstorm tonight, occurring mainly just ahead and along the cold
front as it pushes east across the forecast area later this evening.

Gusty straight line winds, possibly from 30 to 40 mph with
occasionally lightning, will be the main concerns with some of the
stronger convection just ahead and along the front. In the wake of
the front expect wind gusts ranging from 18 to 28 mph for most
inland areas and from 28 to 38 mph further south along the immediate
coast. As result a wind advisory is now in effect for the immediate
coastal areas of alabama and northwest florida from midnight tonight
through 9 am Sun morning. Northerly winds will slowly diminish
through late Sun afternoon. Expect mostly cloudy skies with mild
temps this evening followed by good clearing from west to east and
much colder temps in the wake of the front early Sun morning through
sun afternoon.

Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s for most inland areas
generally north of a line from andalusia to mobile in alabama and
the upper 40s to lower 50s further south to the immediate coast.

Highs Sun will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s generally along
and north of the i-10 corridor and the lower to middle 60s further
south to the immediate coast. 32 ee
short term Sunday night through Tuesday night ... A longwave trof
over the easternmost states moves off into the western atlantic
Sunday night into Monday while another amplifying upper trof
advances across the plains. This next upper trof continues to
amplify while moving into the eastern states through Tuesday
night. A dome of cold surface high pressure builds into the region
Sunday night (in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the near
term period), and with winds becoming calm or light along with an
open radiative window (precipitable water near 0.1 inch - very
low), the potential for a light freeze exists for interior areas.

Have issued a freeze watch for late Sunday night into early
Monday morning from approximately new augusta, ms to luverne, al
where temperatures drop to freezing or slightly below. May see a
few patches of freezing temperatures in normally colder spots further
south and the freeze watch may need to be expanded further
southward on later shifts, but for now expect lows in the mid 30s
for the remainder of the area except for upper 30s at the coast.

The surface high shifts eastward and well off into the western
atlantic through Tuesday while a surface low well to the north
brings a cold front across the plains to near the lower
mississippi river valley. A light southeasterly flow develops on
Monday and promotes a modest increase in deep layer moisture ahead
of the front, with precipitable water values increasing to
0.5-0.75 inches or about to 60 to 90% of normal. May see some
isolated patches of rain generally over the coastal counties
Tuesday into Tuesday night due to modest isentropic lift followed
by the weak front moving through, but otherwise dry conditions
are expected. Highs on Monday will be in the lower 60s with highs
on Tuesday ranging from the mid 60s inland to upper 60s closer to
the coast. Lows Monday night range from near 40 inland to the
mid to upper 40s at the coast, then lows Tuesday night will be in
the mid 40s inland with upper 40s at the coast. 29
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... A longwave upper trof
over the eastern states weakens significantly on Friday as a
powerful embedded shortwave ejects off into the atlantic, but then
another strong shortwave advances across the plains on Saturday
and reforms the longwave trof pattern, albeit a bit further to the
west. A surface high builds into the region through Thursday in
the wake of a frontal passage which occurred Tuesday night then
shifts gradually eastward through Saturday with a light
northwesterly flow prevailing over the forecast area through
Friday then switching to a light southerly flow on Saturday. With
the absence of any forcing mechanisms and deep layer moisture
also remaining too limited to support much in the way of
precipitation anyway, will continue with a dry forecast through
the period. Highs on Wednesday range from the lower 60s well
inland to the mid 60s for much of the remaining portion then trend
cooler for Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 50s well
inland to near 60 close to the coast. A warming trend then ensues
Friday into Saturday with highs for Saturday in the upper 60s to
near 70. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night range from the
mid 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast then trend
warmer for Friday night with lows around 40 inland and in the mid
40s closer to the coast. 29
marine... A moderate to strong southwest to west wind with continue
over the marine area through this evening ahead of a strong cold
front approaching from the west. The front will move across the
marine area from midnight tonight through about sunrise Sun morning
with possible frequent gusts to gale force occurring mostly over the
open gulf waters of alabama from 0 to 60 nm out and the open gulf
waters of nwfl from 20 to 60 nm out from midnight tonight through
about 9 am cst Sun morning. As a result a small craft advisory is in
effect for the entire marine area this evening, upgrading to a gale
warning in the areas mentioned above Sun morning, followed by a
small craft advisory for the entire marine area through late sun
afternoon. Seas will build to 5 to 7 feet out to 20 nm and 6 to 9
feet from 20 to 60 nm out through Sun afternoon.

Northerly winds and seas will gradually subside Sun night through
early Mon as a broad surface ridge of high pressure builds from the
lower mississippi river valley to the southeast states through mon
afternoon. A light east to southeast wind is expected by mon
afternoon continuing through Mon evening then shifting mostly north
to northeast and building Tue through Thu in response to another
surge of colder air moving south over the northern and central gulf
late Tue through the remainder of the week. As result a small craft
advisory may be needed for some areas later in the week. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Freeze watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
alz051>058.

Wind advisory until 9 am cst Sunday for alz263>266.

Fl... Wind advisory until 9 am cst Sunday for flz202-204-206.

Ms... Freeze watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
msz067-075-076.

Gm... Small craft advisory until midnight cst tonight for gmz650-655-
670-675.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Sunday to 3 am cst Monday for
gmz650-655-670-675.

Gale warning until 9 am cst Sunday for gmz650-655-670-675.

Small craft advisory until noon cst Sunday for gmz630>635.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 6 mi54 min NNW 12 62°F 1013.9 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 19 mi114 min WSW 20 72°F 1011.9 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 23 mi99 min 73°F 1011 hPa69°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 28 mi84 min W 19 68°F 1012.2 hPa (+1.0)
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 29 mi54 min NNW 25
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 32 mi84 min SW 9.9 G 13 73°F 1011.5 hPa (+0.4)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 33 mi84 min W 20 70°F 1012.5 hPa (+1.4)
PPTA1 39 mi54 min 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL5 mi31 minNNW 1610.00 miOvercast62°F55°F78%1014.7 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL11 mi88 minNNW 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast62°F57°F86%1014 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL19 mi29 minN 7 G 1610.00 miOvercast61°F55°F83%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S4SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm4S9
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1 day agoNW3NW4NW4NE4NE5NW4NW4N3NE4CalmSE4SE7SE7S6S7S7S6S3S5SE3SE5SE4SE4S6
2 days agoNW3NW3CalmCalmNW3NW3NW5CalmNE4E4E5SE5SE4SE3SE4CalmCalmSW4W3NW4W3NW3NW4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:22 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:01 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:05 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:55 PM CST     1.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.61.41.210.80.50.30.20.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.811.11.21.31.51.61.7

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:36 AM CST     1.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:21 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:07 PM CST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:04 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.51.51.41.31.210.80.60.40.30.20.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.80.911.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.