Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mobile, AL

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What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday July 21, 2018 10:15 PM CDT (03:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:54PMMoonset 1:27AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 403 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 21 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 403 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis..A broad surface ridge of high pressure will continue over the central and northern gulf through early next week, combined with a weakening frontal boundary shifting southward towards the northern gulf coast. With this pattern a moderate to strong westerly flow will continue over the marine area through Sunday evening shifting northwest late Sunday night as the week front moves offshore. Winds and seas will be locally higher with isolated to scattered Thunderstorms through early next week with best coverage generally east of pensacola through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mobile, AL
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location: 30.71, -88.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 220059 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
759 pm cdt Sat jul 21 2018

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Weather maps this evening shows a highly amplified
pressure trof at high levels from the ohio river valley to the
southeast while a deep layer ridge was centered over tx. Between
these two systems has been a conveyor belt allowing for the
southeastward movement of mid level impulses to help bring an
enhancement in lift within a very unstable and moist deep layer
airmass over the southeast. The bulk of evening convection
remains northeast of the local area where clusters of storms, with
a history of producing severe weather, were tracking southeast
out of the east central al and into west central ga. These storms
have also fired due to a region of pronounced mid level dry air
crossing southeast atop a frontal zone which has eased across the
tn river valley. There currently is no convective activity over
the local area due in large part to the presence of a weak capping
inversion in the lower levels as mentioned from previous shift.

This may erode some tonight and there are some indications in the
latest convection-allowing models (cam's) of some isolated to
scattered development over the eastern half of the local area. If
the cap is overcome, abundant mixed layer CAPE on the order of
3000 to 4000 j kg will be more than sufficient for updraft growth;
as a result there remains some potential for a few storms to
become severe. Main impacts would be severe convective wind gusts
in excess of 60 mph. Forecasters maintain a marginal risk of
severe weather mainly over the eastern zones. Will continue to
monitor. 10

Prev discussion issued 617 pm cdt Sat jul 21 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance...VFR sky and vsby expected along the terminals overnight
with light southwest winds. 10
prev discussion... Issued 354 pm cdt Sat jul 21 2018
near term now through Sunday ... Limited coverage of showers
and thunderstorms will continue through this afternoon and evening
mostly due to an elevated mixed layer above a shallow warm layer
that is advecting east generally around 2kft or less. This pattern
is a result of a deep layer ridge of high pressure to the west
shifting slightly east across the north central gulf states
through sun. Aloft very impressive CAPE values, lapse rates and
moisture content continues across the region possibly leading to a
few isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing later this
afternoon and this evening if the weak warm nose is overcome or
mixed. Although most of the convection will be somewhat elevated
if it does form enough mixing near the surface could result in
isolated cases of strong gusty winds with the larger
thunderstorms. Model soundings support this reasoning and continue
to show this warm nose through Sun afternoon which continues to
limit the coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the near term
period. Due to the current conditions mentioned above we will
continue with the limited threat graphic for severe weather
through this afternoon. With this pattern the best chance for any
measurable rain will be over the eastern half of the forecast area
generally east of the mobile tensaw delta for the next 24 hours.

Otherwise, the biggest concern in the near term period will be
dangerous heat index values across the region this afternoon and
during the day on sun. The higher values of 108 to 112 still look to
occur generally south of a line stretching from crestview fl to
hattiesburg ms during the late morning and afternoon hours through
sun. As a result a heat advisory will continue in these areas
through Sun afternoon. 32 ee
short term Sunday night through Tuesday night ... An elongated
north-south oriented upper low over the eastern states weakens to
an similarly oriented upper trof on Monday while a large and
strong upper ridge dominates the southwestern states. An
associated surface low will be located over the carolinas at the
beginning of the period, with a cold front extending southwestward
across the southern portion of the forecast area. The surface low
shifts slowly southward across georgia through Monday, and in the
process brings the cold front through the remainder of the
forecast area Sunday evening and into the extreme northeastern
gulf. Have gone with mostly dry conditions Sunday night except for
slight chance pops over a portion of the western florida
panhandle and south central alabama where some storms may linger
from the daytime into the evening hours and or develop on the
frontal boundary. While the frontal boundary will be located just
offshore on Monday, a series of shortwaves moves across the area
through the northerly flow aloft. Coverage of convection looks to
be limited by the strength of a warm nose located near 725 mb
with an elevated mixed layer (eml) otherwise present aloft. The
eastern portion of the area will be less affected by the warm nose
(close to the axis of the upper trof) while the western portion
will be more under the influence of the eastern periphery of the
albeit distant, but intense upper ridge. As such, have gone with
chance pops over the eastern portion tapering to slight chance
pops over the western portion. Some strong to possibly severe
storms can occur on Monday, mainly over the eastern portion of the
area.

The upper trof continues to weaken slightly during the remainder
of the period while the surface low likewise weakens and shifts
into the extreme northeast gulf, near or over the marine area. The
associated frontal boundary weakens during the period as well
while lingering over the extreme northeastern gulf. With the
weakening of the upper trof, warmer temperatures aloft spread into
the region and significantly decrease the EML over the area.

While this results in a lower potential for strong storm
development, mainly scattered convective development is still
expected as a series of shortwaves continue over the area within a
northerly flow aloft along with the close proximity of the
weakening surface low. 29
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... The upper trof continues
to weaken over the eastern states on Wednesday, then is replaced
by a broad, longwave trof which evolves over the eastern states
Thursday into Friday. The surface low located near or over the
marine area drifts northward into the forecast area on Wednesday
and weakens to a surface trof which in turn lingers through
Thursday. Have gone with chance to good chance pops for much of
the area on Wednesday and Thursday, except for likely pops over
the easternmost portion where a better convective environment
will be present (left over from the weakening upper trof). A
surface ridge builds gradually over the northern gulf through the
period, and will promote an onshore flow over the forecast area
for Friday into Saturday with scattered convective develop
expected each day. 29
marine... Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected
through Sun evening in response to a moderate to strong westerly
flow mainly from a strong pressure gradient setting up over the
northern gulf waters over the weekend. As a result a small craft
advisory is now in effect for the open gulf waters of al and nwfl
from 0 to 60 nm out including the lower end of mobile bay and the
mississippi sound east of pascagoula, beginning at midnight tonight
continuing through 10 pm cdt Sun evening. Winds ranging from 18 to
23 knots with seas up to 7 ft can be expected over the open gulf
waters during the day on sun. Over most inshore waters waves will
range from 1 to 2 feet. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... Heat advisory until 6 pm cdt Sunday for alz059-261>266.

Fl... Heat advisory until 6 pm cdt Sunday for flz201>206.

Ms... Heat advisory until 6 pm cdt Sunday for msz075-076-078-079.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 pm cdt Sunday for gmz631-
632-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 0 mi34 min 89°F 89°F1011.8 hPa
PTOA1 3 mi28 min 88°F 76°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 4 mi28 min W 6 G 8.9 87°F 87°F1011.9 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 19 mi46 min WSW 17 88°F 1011.2 hPa
WBYA1 23 mi28 min 89°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 23 mi91 min 88°F 1011 hPa76°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 28 mi46 min WSW 16 88°F 1012.2 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 32 mi91 min W 8.9 88°F 1013 hPa80°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 32 mi16 min WSW 8.9 G 12 86°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.5)80°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 33 mi28 min W 18 G 20 86°F 1012 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 33 mi46 min W 18 88°F 1012.2 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 36 mi34 min 85°F
PPTA1 39 mi46 min 87°F 1011.5 hPa
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 42 mi28 min WSW 12 G 14 85°F 1013.2 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 49 mi34 min W 6 G 11 88°F 88°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL5 mi23 minW 510.00 miFair87°F75°F70%1012.3 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL11 mi80 minWSW 610.00 miFair87°F77°F72%1011.7 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL19 mi41 minW 610.00 miFair86°F78°F79%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW33W4SW3SW3W4SW3W5W4NW9W6W5W5435S6S84SW5445W5
1 day agoNW3NW4W3NW4W3NW3CalmNW4NW4N3CalmNE4CalmSE7E6SE8SE6SE6S5SW6S5SW3SW3SW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm3W3W4W4CalmCalmNW4NW5W4N3NE6E4SE4SE5SE6SE8S6S4SW4W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:26 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:29 AM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:48 PM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.70.80.91.11.21.31.31.31.31.21.110.80.70.60.50.40.40.30.30.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:07 AM CDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:25 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:46 AM CDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:52 PM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.50.50.50.60.70.911.11.21.21.21.110.90.80.70.60.60.50.40.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.