Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:27 AM   Moonset 5:48 PM

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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 1002 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east to southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Tonight - South winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Friday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1002 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis -
high pressure ridge will gradually shift south through midweek with offshore winds developing. Evening southerly wind surges with lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until a cold front arrives Friday. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage Friday night into Saturday. Brief period of strong northerly winds in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 04, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 90 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 061743 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 143 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 955 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The current forecast was on track with little change needed for the update. The 12z JAX sounding showed mid level lapse rates of only 5.2 C/km, but with cooling aloft associated with shortwave trough moving in, should see something closer to 5.5 to 6 C/km this aftn/evening, possibly a bit steeper over inland southeast GA. Storm motion still forecast to be weak at about 5 kt. So, heavy rainfall and gustier downburst winds expected in the stronger storms. Highest forecast instability in pockets, mainly near sea breeze boundaries, estimated to be up to 1500-2000 J/kg, aided by dewpoints in the upper 60s and highs today in the mid to upper 80s. Overall, only slight tweaks to the POPs and highs today.

NEAR TERM
through Tonight...

Quiet conditions thus far as high clouds begin to increase ahead pf the upstream shortwave eastward across the Southeast today. Despite the high clouds, patchy fog development remains possible until daybreak across the Suwannee Valley and far inland areas of SE GA.

Diurnal heating will be initially delayed by cloud cover but highs will climb into the upper 80s and to near 90 once again today. This will yield sufficient daytime instability and support a mix of scattered showers and t'storms along the east and west coast sea breeze. Storm motions will be slow once again today, elevating the localized flood threat. The corridor of highest coverage of convection will be between the I-75 and Highway 301 roadways. A secondary focus will be along the St Johns River where sea breeze and river breeze interact. Potential for strong wind gusts up to 50 mph will also be possible with the more robust pulses - likely along merging outflows. Like the last several days, daytime convection will fizzle after sundown and fade away before midnight. Lows will generally be in the upper 60s but the coastline will likely hover near 70. Cloud cover will clear to the east and promote the potential for radiative cooling and patchy fog development Monday night across the Suwannee Valley.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)

Convective developments will become more inhibited on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure ridging dominates the weather pattern through midweek. Diurnal showers and storms developments for Tuesday and Wednesday will be most likely along the afternoon sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence. High temperatures will reach up into the lower to mid 90s through midweek with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas and in the lower 70s along the coast. Early morning patchy to locally dense fog developments are possible through this period, with areas west of the I-95 corridor as most likely to be affected.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)

Initially dry weather conditions will give way to showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week as a short wave ahead of an advancing cold front moves into Georgia and northeast Florida.
Timing and positioning of frontal boundary for the weekend is showing some discrepancies between forecast models at this time.
Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s for the latter portion of the week with temps potentially reaching record seasonal levels before the weekend. Cooler temperatures are possible for Saturday and Sunday, depending on the placement of the cold front boundary.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR clouds at 4-5 kft. Very isolated weak convection has developed so far not far from SGJ and GNV. But for now, the forecast remains on track with TEMPO groups for JAX, VQQ, and GNV where the chances are best at this time. Only adjustment was to add some vsby problems in the TSRA this afternoon and evening and add some variable wind directions, mostly based on latest HRRR runs. So looks like most convection winding down by 04z tonight, but think a couple of lingering showers are possible during that time. Some fog may develop late tonight to the west of all the TAF sites so no mention in the latest TAF set at this time. VFR clouds expected on Tuesday. Sfc winds turning southeast around 10 kt already at SGJ, CRG, and SSI and within the next couple of hours for JAX and VQQ.

MARINE

High pressure ridge will gradually shift south through midweek with offshore winds developing. Evening southerly wind surges with lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until a cold front arrives a passes Friday. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage Friday night into Saturday. Brief period of strong winds in the wake of the front may require Small Craft Advisory headlines Friday night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk at area beaches through Tuesday. Risk will lower as winds shift offshore Wednesday and Thursday.

CLIMATE
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th
JAX 94/1977
CRG 94/1977
GNV 96/1955
AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th
JAX 96/1959
CRG 93/1977
GNV 97/1955
AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th
JAX 96/1962
CRG 93/2008
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th
JAX 94/2017
CRG 95/2003
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 92 69 93 / 30 10 0 10 SSI 70 87 70 89 / 20 10 0 10 JAX 67 92 68 94 / 20 10 0 0 SGJ 68 90 69 92 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 66 92 66 92 / 30 20 0 10 OCF 67 92 67 93 / 30 20 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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St. Marys
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:24 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:38 AM EDT     6.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:36 PM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EDT     7.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Marys, St. Marys River, Florida, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:02 AM EDT     -2.54 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:11 PM EDT     -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     2.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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