Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Park, GA
May 17, 2024 4:48 AM EDT (08:48 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 2:13 PM Moonset 2:23 AM |
GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 211 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots early this afternoon, then diminishing to around 10 knots late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds and south 2 feet at 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 211 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis -
south and southwesterly flow will prevail through the weekend with periods of advisory level conditions possible. The first being this morning as a complex of Thunderstorms moves over area waters and a potential wake low (bringing with it strengthened southerly flow) develops. These winds could last up to 6 to 9 hours producing higher winds and seas. Large scale southerly flow decreases some Saturday, which will lead to borderline cautionary/advisory level conditions with trends continuing into Sunday and the upcoming week. Showers and Thunderstorm chances will be elevated through the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon/evening as the main upper level system pushes through.
south and southwesterly flow will prevail through the weekend with periods of advisory level conditions possible. The first being this morning as a complex of Thunderstorms moves over area waters and a potential wake low (bringing with it strengthened southerly flow) develops. These winds could last up to 6 to 9 hours producing higher winds and seas. Large scale southerly flow decreases some Saturday, which will lead to borderline cautionary/advisory level conditions with trends continuing into Sunday and the upcoming week. Showers and Thunderstorm chances will be elevated through the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon/evening as the main upper level system pushes through.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 170704 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 304 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Right off the bat this morning, an impressive squall line is racing eastward along the northern Gulf coast towards the forecast area.
Wind gusts in excess of 80 mph were measured earlier with this line in the New Orleans area. While the line may weaken some given a little lower instability in our neck of the woods, we can't rule out some severe weather early this morning, mainly along the panhandle and big bend coast where instability is greatest. Farther to the north, a large area of stratiform rain exists, and we'll have to watch for wake low development as well this morning which could result in gusty winds to the north of the main squall line.
The convective evolution this morning will affect what happens this afternoon and tonight in terms of additional shower and thunderstorm development, and confidence is low on exactly what will play out.
The general consensus is for new development to occur across the northwest portions of the forecast area later this afternoon.
Highs today may be held down a couple of degrees due to cloud cover, and we're generally expecting 80s across the board. Overnight lows tonight will be muggy, mainly in the 70s.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Uncertainty remains high through the short period as a lot of what happens in this period, especially through the day on Saturday, will depend on how convection evolves through Friday and overnight into Saturday morning to our west. Elevated southwesterly flow will be firmly entrenched over the forecast area into Saturday as the next, possibly last, shortwave in the southwesterly flow will be approaching by daybreak. The timing of this wave will help determine how far west favorable forcing and instability develop through the morning and afternoon hours.
Further complicating matters will be the eastward progression of a potential MCS (organized complex of storms) in the morning.
Should this MCS plow through quickly ahead of the upper level shortwave, it is possible this could lower severe probs for our afternoon severe threat. With a slower shortwave/MCS and sufficient shear of 40 to 50 knots in place, we will likely realize some severe potential amongst the relatively large mid- level lapse rates and modest instability. More organized storms in this environment will likely bring a greater wind potential. With the steeper lapse rates, large hail is also possible, but confidence is lower in that threat materializing. A brief tornado can't be ruled out either but with low-level shear fairly low and very weak turning in the low-level hodographs, the damaging wind and hail threat will be the main hazards folks this weekend need to be monitoring.
Widespread showers, in addition to scattered severe storms, continue into the evening hours but a general downtrend in severe weather should begin to develop as the forcing moves east and instability wanes. However, with one last shortwave passage left, isolated severe storms remain possible overnight Saturday into early Sunday.
The trough pushes through Sunday with cooler temperatures aloft moving in. While the severe threat will be noticeably lower and east compared to Saturday's event, our GA counties along the I-75 corridor and down into the southeast Big Bend could see strong, possibly severe, storms given the favorable temperatures aloft and remnant instability.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Upper level ridge settles in as the trough from the weekend moves out. A quieter and drier pattern is forecast through much of next week. This pattern should lead to a warm up in temperatures with highs back in the low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
A squall line of thunderstorms approaching from the west could impact ECP early this morning. Otherwise, showers and gusty winds with ceilings fluctuating between VFR and MVFR are expected around TLH and DHN later this morning. For this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected near DHN and ABY.
MARINE
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
South and southwesterly flow will prevail through the weekend with periods of advisory level conditions possible. The first being this morning as a complex of thunderstorms moves over area waters and a potential wake low (bringing with it strengthened southerly flow) develops. These winds could last up to 6 to 9 hours producing higher winds and seas. Large scale southerly flow decreases some Saturday, which will lead to borderline cautionary/advisory level conditions with trends continuing into Sunday and the upcoming week. Showers and thunderstorm chances will be elevated through the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon/evening as the main upper level system pushes through.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
For today and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
The Ochlockonee and upper portions of the Withlacoochee Rivers have crested or will crest in the next 24 to 36 hours. After the crests, gradual reductions should continue. However, more rain is on the way this week with widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. These amounts on their own shouldn't cause additional issues but localized higher amounts could cause further rises on already elevated rivers.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 86 74 86 70 / 50 20 80 50 Panama City 83 73 82 70 / 80 30 80 40 Dothan 84 71 78 67 / 60 50 90 30 Albany 85 71 82 67 / 60 50 90 40 Valdosta 88 74 87 69 / 30 30 80 60 Cross City 87 73 87 70 / 40 0 60 70 Apalachicola 82 75 82 72 / 80 10 70 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ this morning to 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772- 775.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 304 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Right off the bat this morning, an impressive squall line is racing eastward along the northern Gulf coast towards the forecast area.
Wind gusts in excess of 80 mph were measured earlier with this line in the New Orleans area. While the line may weaken some given a little lower instability in our neck of the woods, we can't rule out some severe weather early this morning, mainly along the panhandle and big bend coast where instability is greatest. Farther to the north, a large area of stratiform rain exists, and we'll have to watch for wake low development as well this morning which could result in gusty winds to the north of the main squall line.
The convective evolution this morning will affect what happens this afternoon and tonight in terms of additional shower and thunderstorm development, and confidence is low on exactly what will play out.
The general consensus is for new development to occur across the northwest portions of the forecast area later this afternoon.
Highs today may be held down a couple of degrees due to cloud cover, and we're generally expecting 80s across the board. Overnight lows tonight will be muggy, mainly in the 70s.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Uncertainty remains high through the short period as a lot of what happens in this period, especially through the day on Saturday, will depend on how convection evolves through Friday and overnight into Saturday morning to our west. Elevated southwesterly flow will be firmly entrenched over the forecast area into Saturday as the next, possibly last, shortwave in the southwesterly flow will be approaching by daybreak. The timing of this wave will help determine how far west favorable forcing and instability develop through the morning and afternoon hours.
Further complicating matters will be the eastward progression of a potential MCS (organized complex of storms) in the morning.
Should this MCS plow through quickly ahead of the upper level shortwave, it is possible this could lower severe probs for our afternoon severe threat. With a slower shortwave/MCS and sufficient shear of 40 to 50 knots in place, we will likely realize some severe potential amongst the relatively large mid- level lapse rates and modest instability. More organized storms in this environment will likely bring a greater wind potential. With the steeper lapse rates, large hail is also possible, but confidence is lower in that threat materializing. A brief tornado can't be ruled out either but with low-level shear fairly low and very weak turning in the low-level hodographs, the damaging wind and hail threat will be the main hazards folks this weekend need to be monitoring.
Widespread showers, in addition to scattered severe storms, continue into the evening hours but a general downtrend in severe weather should begin to develop as the forcing moves east and instability wanes. However, with one last shortwave passage left, isolated severe storms remain possible overnight Saturday into early Sunday.
The trough pushes through Sunday with cooler temperatures aloft moving in. While the severe threat will be noticeably lower and east compared to Saturday's event, our GA counties along the I-75 corridor and down into the southeast Big Bend could see strong, possibly severe, storms given the favorable temperatures aloft and remnant instability.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Upper level ridge settles in as the trough from the weekend moves out. A quieter and drier pattern is forecast through much of next week. This pattern should lead to a warm up in temperatures with highs back in the low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
A squall line of thunderstorms approaching from the west could impact ECP early this morning. Otherwise, showers and gusty winds with ceilings fluctuating between VFR and MVFR are expected around TLH and DHN later this morning. For this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected near DHN and ABY.
MARINE
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
South and southwesterly flow will prevail through the weekend with periods of advisory level conditions possible. The first being this morning as a complex of thunderstorms moves over area waters and a potential wake low (bringing with it strengthened southerly flow) develops. These winds could last up to 6 to 9 hours producing higher winds and seas. Large scale southerly flow decreases some Saturday, which will lead to borderline cautionary/advisory level conditions with trends continuing into Sunday and the upcoming week. Showers and thunderstorm chances will be elevated through the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon/evening as the main upper level system pushes through.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
For today and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
The Ochlockonee and upper portions of the Withlacoochee Rivers have crested or will crest in the next 24 to 36 hours. After the crests, gradual reductions should continue. However, more rain is on the way this week with widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. These amounts on their own shouldn't cause additional issues but localized higher amounts could cause further rises on already elevated rivers.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 86 74 86 70 / 50 20 80 50 Panama City 83 73 82 70 / 80 30 80 40 Dothan 84 71 78 67 / 60 50 90 30 Albany 85 71 82 67 / 60 50 90 40 Valdosta 88 74 87 69 / 30 30 80 60 Cross City 87 73 87 70 / 40 0 60 70 Apalachicola 82 75 82 72 / 80 10 70 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ this morning to 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772- 775.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KVLD VALDOSTA RGNL,GA | 9 sm | 55 min | calm | 8 sm | Clear | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 29.84 | |
| KVAD MOODY AFB,GA | 18 sm | 53 min | SSW 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 29.83 |
Tide / Current for Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mandalay, Aucilla River, Apalachee Bay, Florida, Tide feet
Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:24 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT 1.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:23 AM EDT 2.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:15 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:39 PM EDT 1.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:28 PM EDT 2.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:24 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT 1.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 11:23 AM EDT 2.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:15 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 05:39 PM EDT 1.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:28 PM EDT 2.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Spring Warrior Creek, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 2.5 |
| 11 am |
| 2.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.4 |
Moody AFB, GA,
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