Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday March 23, 2017 9:19 PM CDT (02:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:42AMMoonset 2:42PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 337 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Tonight..East winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A light chop becoming a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A moderate chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A light chop becoming a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 337 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis..An area of high pressure will build over the mid-atlantic and western atlantic while and area of low pressure develops over the plains through the end of the week. As a result, a moderate to strong onshore flow will develop along with increasing chances of showers and Thunderstorms by this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 240042
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
842 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Near term [through tonight]
The 5 pm regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along the
southeast coast, and a weakening, quasi-stationary front near and
along the ga-al border. There were still a few showers near this
boundary in the fl panhandle, but these will dissipate over the
next few hours. No major changes were made to the afternoon
forecast package.

Prev discussion [748 pm edt]
Short term [Friday through Saturday night]
An upper level low located over the great plains will move
northeastward moving over illinois on Saturday. The associated
cold front near the southeast with precipitation out ahead of the
frontal boundary. Showers are expected to reach our CWA Saturday
evening/night and will remain mostly to the west of the
apalachicola-chattahoochee river line. SPC has a marginal risk
for our western counties for Saturday night due to the combination
of marginal shear and low instability. The line of showers and
isolated storms also show a weakening trend and will likely
dissipate Saturday night/Sunday morning. Highs will be in upper
70s to low 80s and lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]
A second shortwave will be moving through the plains on Sunday,
and will move off the mid-atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon. At
the surface, an associated cold front will move through the tri-
state region by Tuesday night. Rain chances will increase ahead of
the front starting on Monday. Behind the front, deep layer ridging
will prevail for the remainder of the period. Afternoon highs and
overnight lows will remain about 10 degrees above normal for this
time of year.

Aviation [through 00z Saturday]
Widespread cloud coverage will remain in place through the
period. MVFR CIGS may develop overnight with guidance suggesting
the best chance at ecp, dhn and vld. Easterly winds will stay up
between 5 and 10 kts tonight so widespread fog is not expected.

However, we could see MVFR vsby at aby and vld just prior to
daybreak. East to southeast winds will continue through the day
Friday.

Marine
Advisory conditions under easterly flow will overspread the
northeast gulf starting this evening. Winds and seas will fall
below advisory levels by late tomorrow afternoon, though
cautionary conditions will persist through Saturday. By Sunday,
light winds and low seas are expected to prevail through mid-week
next week.

Fire weather
Aside from possible high dispersion Friday afternoon and a
continuation of dry weather, there are no other fire weather
concerns.

Hydrology
Less than an inch of rain on average is expected across the region
over the next 7 days. Thus, flooding is not expected.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 56 78 57 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
panama city 60 73 63 73 63 / 10 0 0 10 30
dothan 56 78 58 78 60 / 0 0 0 20 40
albany 54 78 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 10 20
valdosta 54 77 56 80 58 / 0 0 0 10 10
cross city 55 78 55 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
apalachicola 61 72 62 73 62 / 0 0 0 10 20

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for coastal waters
from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-
coastal waters from apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-
waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60
nm-waters from apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Fournier
short term... Harrigan/chaney
long term... Harrigan
aviation... Barry
marine... Harrigan
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi49 min E 7 G 11 70°F 70°F1025.5 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi49 min E 6 G 9.9 69°F 68°F1025.7 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi49 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 70°F 69°F1024.9 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 85 mi94 min E 13 71°F 61°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-County Airport, FL19 mi81 minENE 610.00 miOvercast69°F57°F68%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N4N6N6--NE6NE5NE3NE4E6--E9E8E9----E9E7--E8E8NE9E6E8
1 day agoSW3SW3CalmSW3SW3----CalmCalm--------5NE4--------N4--N4--N5
2 days ago--CalmCalmCalmCalm----S3--SW3Calm--33------SW8S5----SW7SW7SW5

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:40 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:14 AM CDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:05 PM CDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.20.40.50.60.80.911.11.21.21.31.21.21

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:59 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:41 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.10.30.40.50.70.80.911.11.21.21.21.21.10.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.