Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 7:44PM Monday May 29, 2017 3:59 PM CDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 11:39PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 343 Pm Cdt Mon May 29 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth.
Thursday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 343 Pm Cdt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to weaken and drift east over the north central and eastern gulf through midweek in response to an upper level system and weakening frontal boundary approaching from the west and northwest. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with this pattern with better coverage occurring late tonight through Tuesday morning as the weak front nears the coast and stalls. A light southerly flow will become better established late Wednesday and continue through late in the week as a weak surface ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the north central gulf.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 291907
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
307 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Near term [through tonight]
Latest visible satellite imagery shows a decrease in the high clouds
across the tri-state area and with daytime heating, CU has begun to
develop. A few showers can be noted already on radar across the
florida panhandle and southeast alabama. With daytime heating and
2000-3500 j kg SBCAPE analyzed on the SPC mesoanalysis, do expect
thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening. A strong to
severe storm still cannot be ruled out with the better chances
across southeast alabama and southwest georgia. Afternoon activity
will diminish this evening but additional convection will push into
the western portion of the CWA early Tuesday morning ahead of a
shortwave moving along the gulf coast.

Lows tonight will remain above average with lows in the lower 70s
inland to mid 70s along the coast.

Short term [Tuesday through Wednesday night]
A stagnant upper level low over the hudson bay will drive the
weather across the eastern u.S. For much of the next week. A series
of shortwaves of varying intensity will rotate around the periphery
of this low, likely remaining north of the area. High pressure will
remain centered off to the west, with southerly flow continuing to
advect warm, moist air into the region through the period. Though
there will be little in the way of forcing, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day, with pops generally in the 20
to 40% range. Even with increase cloud cover, hot and humid
conditions are expected through the period. Afternoon highs will
range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s.

Long term [Thursday through Monday]
Active weather will continue through the long term period as the
aforementioned upper low will remain in place across eastern
canada. Surface high pressure will remain centered east of the
area, continuing to advect moisture into the region, fueling
scattered showers and storms through the end of the week. There
remains a strong signal in guidance in a broad shortwave trough in
the southern stream of the jet pulling abundant moisture into the
region by the latter part of the week and into the weekend. This
will yield increase rain chances across the entire region during
this time frame. Afternoon high temperatures will generally run in
the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

Aviation [through 18z Tuesday]
Expect mainlyVFR conditions today, but conditions could deteriorate
to lifr to MVFR again overnight. Large area of high clouds this
morning and shower activity may help to limit convection this
afternoon. With lower chances, have cut back on mention of vcts in
the TAF sites. Better chances of a site seeing an isolated shra tsra
would be at the northern sites (dhn, aby and vld).

Marine
Generally west to southwesterly winds between 10 and 15 knots will
prevail each afternoon with seas of 1 to 3 feet. Wind and chop will
be locally higher near the coast with the development of the daily
seabreeze. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase by
late week.

Fire weather
Very light transport winds Wednesday afternoon may lead to
critically low afternoon dispersion values. Otherwise, there are no
other fire weather concerns at this time.

Hydrology
Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain scattered through at
least Thursday. Flooding is not expected with any of this activity
given the current river and stream levels across the region. More
widespread rain chances will be possible late this week and into the
weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 71 90 68 91 70 10 20 10 20 10
panama city 74 83 72 89 73 20 20 10 20 10
dothan 71 85 68 89 70 30 40 10 20 10
albany 71 87 69 89 70 20 30 20 20 10
valdosta 71 91 69 91 70 10 20 20 30 10
cross city 71 92 69 92 70 0 10 10 20 10
apalachicola 73 86 71 87 72 10 10 10 10 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt 7 pm cdt this evening for
coastal bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Fieux
short term... Pullin
long term... Pullin
aviation... Fieux
marine... Pullin
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Pullin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi41 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 81°F1017.3 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi41 min SSW 8 G 8.9 81°F 81°F1017.3 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi41 min 88°F 80°F1016.5 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 85 mi74 min SSW 11 84°F 78°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-County Airport, FL19 mi3 hrsWSW 10 G 1510.00 miFair88°F73°F61%1013 hPa

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------Calm----CalmS3----Calm----W6
G14
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1 day ago----------SW5----------SW45SW4SW3Calm--------5------
2 days ago----------SW4--S3Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----CalmCalm3--------

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:33 PM CDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:37 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.60.81.11.31.51.71.81.91.91.81.61.41.10.80.40.1-0.1-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:12 PM CDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:36 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.60.91.11.31.51.71.81.81.81.71.51.310.60.30.1-0.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.