Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 4:48PM Saturday November 18, 2017 1:28 PM CST (19:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:11AMMoonset 6:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
GMZ635 Choctawhatchee Bay- 1208 Pm Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm cst this evening through Sunday afternoon...
.small craft should exercise caution this afternoon...
Rest of today..South winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southwest. Choppy becoming a moderate chop.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. A moderate chop becoming choppy to rough. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Choppy to rough becoming choppy.
Sunday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Choppy becoming a light chop.
Monday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Monday night..East winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast. Smooth.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1208 Pm Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to shift east to the eastern seaboard and western atlantic through Saturday in response to a strong cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move across the marine area late tonight through Sunday morning leading to a strong offshore flow occurring throughout most of the day on Sunday. Northerly winds and seas will gradually subside Sunday night through early Monday. Frequent gusts to gale force, occurring mostly over the open gulf waters, will also be possible in the wake of the front early Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 30.72, -85.93     debug

Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 ktae 181727
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1227 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

Aviation [through 18z Sunday]
Vfr conditions will prevail across the region through the
afternoon with winds occasionally gusting to 20 knots out of the
south-southwest. A front will cross the area overnight, with a few
showers, brief MVFR CIGS and a wind shift to the northwest. Behind
the front, gusty northwest winds will continue through Sunday

Prev discussion [1113 am est]
Near term [through today]
Areas of morning fog have just about burned off, yielding mostly
sunny skies across the forecast area. Clouds, and possible a few
showers, will move into the western portion of the region during
the afternoon as a cold front rapidly approaches. Otherwise, mild
conditions are expected, with highs in the upper 70s.

Short term [tonight through Monday]
The cold front will sweep through the tri-state region overnight.

The front is expected to be preceded with a broken narrow line of
light rain or showers. Rainfall amounts will generally be under one-
tenth of an inch. A cooler and much drier airmass will filter in on
low level northerly flow Sunday with the surface high centered over
texas. This high will translate east-northeastward covering the se
conus on Monday with local winds shifting to the east by the
afternoon. Highs both days will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s
with a low Sunday night in the mid to upper 30s inland and around
40 along the coast.

Long term [Monday night through Saturday]
While there are still some differences between the euro and gfs,
there is a general agreement that a deep trough and surface low will
develop mid to late week across the gulf of mexico. The GFS solution
is now the more aggressive closing off an upper low Wednesday near
the central gulf coast and sliding it eastward into the florida
panhandle Thursday. A deep surface low develops and does a loop
across our local waters Wednesday night through Thursday night
before moving inland near the suwannee river entrance Friday. The
euro drops a short wave all the way to the bay of campeche
Wednesday before before pivoting an upper trough eastward across
the gulf of mexico Thursday through Friday. This solution shows a
weaker surface low developing in the SE gulf of mexico Thursday
moving inland across south florida on Friday. Would like to see
more run to run consistency but for now will lean toward the
wetter GFS solution. The highest pops (50-60%) will be across the
florida big bend Wednesday night through Thursday night. Low end
rain chances (20-30%) may linger into Friday before drying out on
Saturday. Temps will be near seasonal levels Tuesday and
Wednesday dropping below climo through the remainder of the

Light to moderate southwest winds today will increase to advisory
levels late tonight or early Sunday as a strong cold front
approaches and moves through the local waters. Winds and seas will
remain elevated through Sunday night before dropping below
cautionary levels on Monday.

Fire weather
A cold front will move through the area late tonight with breezy
conditions and a dry airmass behind it for Sunday. However, rh
values are expected to remain above critical levels and red flag
conditions are not expected for the next several days.

Dry conditions will continue today. Rainfall associated with the
next frontal system late tonight into Sunday morning will be
light with no flooding concerns. A gulf low next week has the
potential to bring heavy rain to our florida counties toward the
end of the week, but recent dry weather should mitigate and
flooding concerns then as well.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 55 66 37 67 48 40 10 0 0 10
panama city 55 65 41 65 51 40 10 0 0 10
dothan 49 63 34 64 44 40 0 0 0 10
albany 51 62 35 64 45 40 0 0 0 10
valdosta 55 65 36 66 48 40 20 0 0 10
cross city 58 71 36 70 51 30 30 0 0 10
apalachicola 57 68 41 65 53 40 10 0 0 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Sunday
for apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to
ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal
waters from suwannee river to keaton beach out 20 nm-
coastal waters from apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-
waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60
nm-waters from apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Camp
short term... Barry
long term... Barry
aviation... Camp
marine... Barry
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Barry

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 85 mi103 min SW 7 73°F 61°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--Calm------------------------------------------4
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:09 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:11 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM CST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:16 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:47 PM CST     1.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:08 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:10 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:49 AM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:15 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:26 PM CST     1.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.