Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 6:11PM Friday October 19, 2018 6:33 PM CDT (23:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 402 Pm Cdt Fri Oct 19 2018
Tonight..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Winds light becoming west 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 402 Pm Cdt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis..A light southerly flow is expected through late tonight followed by a light to moderate west to northwest wind flow through Saturday afternoon. A strong northerly wind flow is expected by early Saturday night and will continue through Sunday morning in the wake of a strong cold front. Small craft advisories will likely be required in the wake of the front by early Saturday night and continue through early Sunday afternoon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 192328
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
728 pm edt Fri oct 19 2018

Near term [through tonight]
The upper ridge centered over florida will be flattened somewhat
during this period as a trough deepens to its north across the
eastern u.S. A front south of the region will become more diffuse
over the northern gulf of mexico and will provide the only forcing
for ascent in the region.

A few showers have developed across inland areas of the florida
panhandle. Added a 20% chance of showers this evening in that area
to account for it. Some moisture return is evident looking at
surface dewpoints across the area. We may therefore see a return of
fog overnight, especially over our western zones in the panhandle.

Low tonight will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the area.

Aviation [through 00z Sunday]
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. Areas
of fog and or low ceilings are expected to develop later tonight
with conditions ranging from MVFR to lifr across the area. A
gradual returning toVFR conditions is expected through the late
morning hours on Saturday. Isolated to scattered convection may
develop Saturday afternoon, but the chance at any one location
looks fairly low at this time.

Prev discussion [327 pm edt]
Short term [Saturday through Sunday night]
The first big cold front of the fall season is still expected to
push through the forecast area on Saturday evening. To most, this
will be a welcome relief with beautiful weather anticipated for
Sunday. Before the cold front passage we'll have to deal with
scattered showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder in the
afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. No severe weather is
anticipated, but make sure to keep an eye on the sky later in the
day and be ready to go indoors should you hear any thunder.

Conditions will be breezy behind the front on Sunday with 10 to
15 mph northerly winds in the morning and early afternoon along
with 20 mph gusts in some locations. Stronger post frontal winds
are anticipated over the water where advisory level winds near
30mph will produce rough boating conditions overnight Saturday
into Sunday.

As for temperatures, expect the mid to upper 80s on Saturday
afternoon with temperatures quickly falling in the evening and
overnight hours. By daybreak Sunday temps will be in the mid 50s
across most of the region (lower in our ga and al counties, and
warmer towards the coastal communities). High temperatures
struggle to climb out of the 60s in our al and ga counties with
the upper 60s expected. Temperatures in the low 70s are expected
in our fl counties. Temperatures drop back into the low 50s and
upper 40s Sunday night as a surface high moves near the region.

This will bring lighter winds... Allowing temperatures to quickly
drop after sunset Sunday.

Long term [Monday through Friday]
The weather pattern through the next week will remain fairly
progressive across the region. Rain chances slowly return through
the week as embedded disturbances within the fast westerly flow
aloft move through the region. The first disturbance passes
through on Tuesday and will bring a round of rain showers and a
weak cold front through the region. The front becomes stationary
in the northern gulf through next week, likely keeping conditions
partly to mostly cloudy. By next weekend we another disturbance
will pass along this stationary front and bring additional chances
for showers and possibly some thunderstorms.

Expect temperatures in the 70s through much of the week with
temperatures dropping into the upper 50s and low 60s at night.

Marine
Light winds around 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 to 3 feet
expected through early Saturday. A strong cold front moves through
Saturday evening and will bring increased winds and seas,
especially over waters from 20 to 60nm away shore. Seas will
build to 5 to 7 feet (highest seas further offshore) with advisory
level conditions possible Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

Winds and seas subside into next week but they will still remain
elevated around 2 to 4 feet along with 10 to 15 knots winds most
afternoons.

Fire weather
A cold front will move through the region on Saturday night bringing a
breezy and dry airmass to the region on Sunday. Though dispersions and
transport winds will be high, relative humidity will stay above critical
levels, thus red flag warnings are not expected.

Hydrology
Area rivers are continuing to decrease after hurricane michael.

With no widespread heavy rainfall events expected in the next 5
to 7 days, this will allow river levels to continue decreasing.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 68 88 57 73 48 10 30 10 0 0
panama city 71 85 58 72 53 20 30 20 0 0
dothan 67 83 52 68 45 10 30 10 0 0
albany 66 85 53 70 45 0 40 10 0 0
valdosta 67 87 56 71 47 0 20 20 0 0
cross city 69 89 62 77 52 20 10 20 0 0
apalachicola 71 86 61 74 57 10 10 20 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Dvd wool
short term... Dobbs
long term... Dobbs
aviation... Dvd
marine... Dobbs
fire weather... Godsey
hydrology... Dobbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi34 min S 8 G 8.9 80°F 83°F1020 hPa (-0.6)
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi34 min 80°F 82°F1020.1 hPa (-0.4)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi34 min S 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 78°F1019.8 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tri-County Airport, FL19 mi96 minN 010.00 miFair87°F71°F59%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmN3CalmN4CalmCalmNE3NE3NE4NE4E4E4NE4------SE7Calm--CalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoN7--N5--N4N7--N5N6N6N6--NE5--N7--N6----5--N6NE7N4
2 days ago----------------------------------------------NW5

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
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Fri -- 02:00 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:26 AM CDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:35 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:47 PM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.21.31.41.51.51.61.61.51.51.41.31.110.90.80.70.60.60.70.70.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:59 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM CDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:44 PM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:07 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.31.41.41.51.61.61.61.51.41.31.210.90.80.70.60.60.70.70.80.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.