Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

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What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 7:47PM Monday July 23, 2018 1:02 AM CDT (06:02 UTC) Moonrise 4:34PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 1029 Pm Cdt Sun Jul 22 2018
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Winds light becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Friday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1029 Pm Cdt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis..A weak front settles southward Monday and begins to stall over the coastal waters. The front remains in place through Wednesday. A moderate to strong west to northwest flow over the open gulf waters diminishes late. A light westerly to northerly flow prevails for Monday and Tuesday then becomes southwesterly on Wednesday. Seas to slowly subside the first of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 230526
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
126 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Aviation
[through 06z Tuesday] the bulk of the convection should remain
outside of the TAF sites this morning. The exception to this could
be a brief tsra at aby if the line of convection to the north of
the TAF site builds southward. Otherwise, expect tsra again Monday
afternoon. A few hours of MVFR vsbys are possible this morning,
mainly at vld and aby.

Prev discussion [900 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
Unusually amplified pattern for late july continues to support
rounds of severe weather across the forecast area. Convection
continues to develop along and just west of the suwannee river,
generally becoming severe after moving across the river. To the
west, severe convection has formed along the nose of a 500mb speed
max, where deep layer shear is maximized. Developing in a strongly
unstable atmosphere (sbcape of 4500j kg from 18z ktae sounding) with
unidirectional shear, these cells are showing splitting
characteristics with strong left and right moving members. This
cluster is expected to continue developing southeastward with time
this afternoon, bringing the threat for damaging winds, large hail,
and isolated tornadoes through SE alabama and into the florida
panhandle and big bend.

This activity will continue offshore and into the southeastern big
bend this evening before exiting the region overnight.

Short term [Monday through Tuesday night]
The incredibly anomalous (-4 standard deviation) upper-low will
slide over the tri-state region on Monday. As it does so, the best
large-scale forcing and deep layer shear will be southwest and
east of us. Expect scattered seabreeze development to remain in
north florida, though boundaries from storms developing east of
us, and boundaries put off from seabreeze storms could result in
a scattering of storms region-wide tomorrow. On Tuesday, the
frontal boundary associated with the filling upper-low may drift
back inland and westward as it begins to weaken. This, combined
with the seabreeze will be the focus for scattered storms. Again,
severe weather is not expected.

Long term [Wednesday through Sunday]
Starting Wednesday, we'll transition back to a more typical
summertime patter across the region, with the seabreeze being the
main forcing mechanism for afternoon storms. Highs and lows will
run about normal for this time of year.

Marine
Advisory conditions will continue into tonight before subsiding to
cautionary conditions on Monday, and below headline levels by
Monday night. A return to typically low winds and seas is expected
by Tuesday.

Fire weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

Hydrology
As storms become more scattered in nature beginning tomorrow, the
threat for flooding will decrease significantly.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 90 72 89 72 90 50 20 60 30 50
panama city 89 76 87 77 90 40 20 50 30 40
dothan 88 72 87 73 90 40 20 60 30 50
albany 88 72 88 74 90 40 20 70 30 60
valdosta 89 72 88 72 89 50 20 70 30 60
cross city 90 73 87 73 87 50 30 60 50 60
apalachicola 88 76 87 77 88 30 20 50 30 40

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 am edt 7 am cdt this morning for
coastal bay-coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for
apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to
ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal
waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20
nm-coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton
county line fl out 20 nm-waters from suwannee river to
apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from apalachicola
to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from mexico
beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Camp
short term... Harrigan
long term... Harrigan
aviation... Dvd jlf
marine... Harrigan
fire weather... Harrigan
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi33 min NW 5.1 G 5.1 80°F 79°F1008.5 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi33 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 87°F1008.5 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi39 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 82°F 88°F1009.1 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 85 mi78 min W 4.1 72°F 69°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------SW5----SW4----------------------------S3
1 day ago----Calm------Calm----------------SW5----S9S9
G16
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2 days ago--------------N3Calm----N4--4Calm--N56------------

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
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Mon -- 02:35 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM CDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:42 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.811.11.31.51.61.71.71.71.61.41.20.90.60.40.20-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:34 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM CDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:28 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.811.21.31.51.61.71.71.61.51.31.10.80.50.30.10-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.