Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 4:45 AM   Moonset 6:06 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 825 Pm Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Saturday - North winds around 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 825 Pm Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis - An onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with wind speeds slowly increasing to moderate by the middle of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KTAE 070207 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1007 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

New UPDATE, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 1004 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The forecast is on track, so no updates needed.

NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Mainly isolated convection should diminish this evening and pave the way for quiet, but muggy overnight conditions. Fog and low stratus redevelops over the FL counties, then spreads to the remainder of the Tri-State area through the early morning hrs. Some of the fog has the potential to be dense once again, but confidence was not high enough to issue an advisory at this time. The best chances appear to be over Southern AL/Western FL Panhandle. Conditions should improve by mid morning. Forecast lows range from the upper 60s inland to around 70 along the coast.

For tomorrow, a building subtropical ridge from the SW Gulf sets the stage for 3-day period of hot weather characterized by daily inland high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s. Heat indices will be a few degrees hotter. Strong subsidence from this ridge should suppress most if not all convection. These conditions can be harmful to those sensitive to heat, so please take the necessary precautions if exposed. For beachgoers, be mindful of what color flags are flying: red = high risk for rip currents while yellow = moderate.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Fairly benign period of weather with ridging in control. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or rumble of thunder across SE AL and SW GA late Wednesday. Unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Southern stream shortwave energy will lead to an unsettled period of weather centered on Thursday and Friday with a slow frontal passage.
Cannot rule out heavy rain and severe weather, especially on Friday.
The timing of the front will determine the severe weather potential with otherwise favorable shear. Temperatures cool to more seasonable levels Friday and Friday night with the passage of the front. Some lingering clouds/showers are possible into the weekend if the front slows with the support of addt'l southern stream shortwave energy, but that is still uncertain, and the forecast leans drier attm.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The isolated showers and thunderstorms observed this afternoon and evening should continue to diminish across the area. ABY may be effected for the first hour of the new TAF cycle as outflow from the storms in Bainbridge to Thomasville corridor continues north.
Overall, the largest concern will be the IFR to LIFR CIGs and Visibilities at all terminals overnight and towards the early morning hours. These conditions look to linger until around the 13-15 UTC timeframe before lifting to VFR conditions at all terminals. Winds will generally prevail out of the south/southwest at around 10 knots or less through the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Late this evening, Buoy 42036 was observing southerly breezes of 4-6 knots, and southerly waves of 2 feet at 4 seconds.

From CWF synopsis...A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.
Gentle southerly breezes will slowly increase to moderate southerlies as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with northwest winds in its wake.
Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Minimal rain chances are on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday, but the tradeoff will be hot afternoon conditions when high temperatures surge into the upper 80s/low 90s away from the immediate coast. Heat indices will be a few degrees hotter. By Thursday coverage of showers/thunderstorms increase ahead of an approaching front from the NW. Even wetter & stormier weather is expected on Friday once the front moves through the region. Widespread wetting rains are likely. Persistent southerly winds maintain a moist airmass. Lastly, high afternoon dispersions are forecast through Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The main concern is rainfall centered on Friday ahead of the next cold front. The highest amounts are expected in the AL/GA counties where WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, but this threat may shift southward into the FL counties in subsequent forecasts. On the rivers, there are no flooding concerns at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 71 84 73 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 67 90 70 92 / 10 10 0 10 Albany 67 91 69 92 / 20 0 0 10 Valdosta 67 92 68 92 / 10 0 0 10 Cross City 66 89 67 89 / 0 10 0 0 Apalachicola 73 83 73 82 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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West Bay Creek
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Mon -- 04:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:17 AM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:58 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
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West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Lynn Haven
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Mon -- 04:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:55 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
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Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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