Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 4:13 AM   Moonset 4:57 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 930 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Areas of fog early this morning. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 930 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS62 KTAE 051701 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Not many changes to today's forecast overall. Made a few slight adjustments to rain chances by increasing rain chances slightly in the Panhandle and decreasing them slightly near the Suwannee River. Storms today will be fairly isolated given lack of upper support and slightly drier air in place. Forecast soundings till show inverted-V profiles with sufficient DCAPE around 750-900 J/kg, maintaining a gusty wind threat.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening, although coverage is expected to be much less than yesterday as the shortwave has pushed off to the northeast.
Forecast soundings for this afternoon show an inverted V shape along with DCAPE around 800-900 J/kg, indicating a favorable environment for gusty winds with the stronger storms that develop today. Storm motion appears to be fairy slow again today, so some isolated pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible. However, PWs are forecast to be a little less than yesterday's, and overall coverage of storms today is forecast to be much less which should together limit the flood threat. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows tonight generally in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

One more day of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast Monday before high pressure takes over Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will manage the upper 80s to near 90 Monday afternoon and be a degree or two warmer Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will generally remain in the middle to upper 60s both nights, but Tuesday night is forecast to be a degree or two warmer than Monday night.

All this is thanks to an H5 shortwave moving through the Tennessee Valley, or well north of our area. Enough moisture will be in place Monday afternoon to allow a 30 to 50 percent chance for rain for our eastern time zone counties, or east of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola River. Lower chances, around 10 to 20 percent, for rain are forecast across SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as the sea breeze pushes inland.

Tuesday will see the H5 shortwave up near the Delmarva Peninsula as a ridge builds in from the Gulf of Mexico. The subsidence from this ridge will put a lid on rain chances and generally keep them to 15 percent or less along the sea breeze Tuesday afternoon. The lack of rain in the forecast will also allow temperatures to nudge up a few degrees from Monday.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Warm and dry weather is forecast for the middle of the week before a cold front swings through sometime Friday. Temperatures ahead of the front are forecast to climb into the lower 90s for highs and near 70 for lows. A cold front is forecast to arrive, along with a few showers and thunderstorms, sometime Friday and bring cooler conditions next weekend.

An H5 ridge over the region should keep us mostly dry, except for a very isolated shower or storm along the sea breeze, Wednesday and Thursday. The recent trend in model guidance has been for the H5 ridge to be a little flatter thanks to the more progressive nature of the H5 trough moving through the middle of the country. This H5 trough will eventually push a cold front through the Southeast Friday into Saturday. There will be enough moisture associated with the front to produce showers and thunderstorms as it moves through the area. It's too soon to determine any severe potential with this system, but we'll keep an eye on it as it appears there could be some overlap of adequate shear and instability on Friday.

Temperatures will generally be in the lower to middle 90s away from the immediate coast Wednesday and Thursday before cooling back closer to normal, or the middle 80s, by Saturday. Overnight lows will follow a similar path with upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday nights before cooling back into the 60s as early as Friday night.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

A Cu field is developing across the area this afternoon with bases near 040. Isolated SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop this afternoon, but confidence in location relative to terminals is low. Thus, don't have mention of TSRA in this cycle, but will handle with amendments. Some patchy fog and/or low stratus is possible near ECP and TLH, but confidence in this is low. Have MVFR vsbys forecast with SCT IFR/LIFR skies. VFR conditions resume after 13z at all sites.

MARINE
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Generally light south to southeast winds are expected through the middle of next week with high pressure off to our east. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet. Some increase in winds are possible mid to late week as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible both Sunday and Monday afternoons with gusty and erratic winds possible nearby. High dispersions are expected Monday and Tuesday afternoons as mixing heights rise and southwesterly transport winds increase.
Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

A few locations picked up several inches of rain Saturday, notably Miller and Early County in SW Georgia. Any showers or storms that develop today will have the capability of dropping a quick inch or two of rain and could lead to localized flooding of poor drainage or urban areas. Riverine flooding is not anticipated due to the sporadic nature of the showers and storms the next couple of afternoons.

Drier weather is expected through the middle of the week before another chance for rain enters the forecast picture Friday as a cold front swings through the Southeast.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 90 67 89 67 / 20 10 30 0 Panama City 85 69 84 70 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 89 67 88 67 / 20 20 30 0 Albany 88 67 89 67 / 20 20 50 10 Valdosta 89 67 88 67 / 30 20 50 20 Cross City 87 65 87 65 / 30 10 40 10 Apalachicola 81 71 81 71 / 10 0 10 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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West Bay Creek
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Sun -- 04:12 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM CDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:56 PM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
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West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Panama City Beach
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Sun -- 01:05 AM CDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:45 AM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:01 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:55 PM CDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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