Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce de Leon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:59PM Thursday March 21, 2019 11:06 AM CDT (16:06 UTC) Moonrise 7:52PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 1040 Am Cdt Thu Mar 21 2019
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming north. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming south. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Waves less than 1 foot.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Sunday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Monday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1040 Am Cdt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate west to northwest wind flow will persist over the marine area through late Friday as a broad surface ridge of high pressure over the central plains states slowly builds east. A light southerly flow is expected over the weekend as high pressure to the north shifts east to the eastern seaboard.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce de Leon, FL
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location: 30.72, -85.93     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 211400
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1000 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Update
Current forecast remains on track with no significant changes.

Fire weather
A red flag warning is now in effect for portions of the florida
panhandle this afternoon and evening for northwest winds around
15 mph, minimum relative humidity as low as 20 percent and erc
values greater than 28.

Across the remainder of the region, minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the mid to upper 20 percent range. Winds
will also become gusty this afternoon. However, available fuel
moisture is currently above critical levels outside portions of
the florida panhandle, so red flag conditions are not expected
to be met.

Prev discussion [805 am edt]
Near term [through today]
The axis of an upper trough and associated dry cold front will sweep
through the region today. Ahead of the front, temps will warm into
the lower to mid 70s across the entire tri-state region. With a dry
airmass in place, minimum relative humidity values will drop as low
as the mid 20 percent range. In the wake of the front, winds will
shift to the northwest and become breezy.

Short term [tonight through Saturday night]
A deepening upper trough will be dipping south today and moving
into the northeast tonight. The dry cold front will be through the
region by tonight with northwest flow in its wake. The air behind it
will be well modified by the time it arrives which means lows
tonight will only be a deg or two colder than last night with highs
Friday around 70.

High pressure will build in at the surface for Friday and
Saturday with deep layer ridging building between the previous
upper low and another one moving into the pacific nw. This leads
to clear skies and warming temps. Lows Fri night will be in the
mid 40s and a few deg warmer Sat night. Highs Saturday will rise
into the lower 70s.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]
High pressure shifts east on Sunday with southerly flow returning.

Mid level ridging stays in place as the upper level ridge breaks
down, allowing the next upper shortwave to move east. Temps continue
to rise with highs Sunday in the upper 70s and a deg or two warmer
on Monday. Lows will warm to the mid 50s by Monday night. The gfs
and ECMWF are still quite different with the synoptic set up next
week with the GFS sweeping a cold front and associated precip
through Monday evening through Tuesday morning. The ecmwf, although
more progressive than previous runs, brings a deeper upper low and
stronger surface feature through, leaving rain in the forecast from
Monday night through late Tuesday night. Both models leave northerly
flow and drier and cooler air behind it. Will keep the blended pops
for now but lean towards a more progressive solution.

Highs will fall Tuesday-Thursday with temps in the upper 60s lower
70s. Lows will drop back to the mid 40s.

Aviation
[through 12z Friday]
brief MVFR this morning until 14z at aby and vld in hz br.

Otherwise,VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle.

West to northwest winds will increase and become gusty later this
morning into the afternoon behind the passage of a dry cold front.

Marine
Conditions will be near advisory levels this afternoon and tonight
as a dry cold front moves across the area. Small craft should
exercise caution. Winds and seas will subside starting on Friday
with winds less than 15 knots and seas below 2 feet for the rest
of the weekend and into Monday.

Hydrology
No rain is expected at least until Monday night. Even then, less
than half an inch of rain is forecast. Flooding is not expected.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 75 45 72 44 75 0 0 0 0 0
panama city 70 50 67 50 70 0 0 0 0 0
dothan 70 43 69 44 71 0 0 0 0 0
albany 71 43 69 44 71 0 0 0 0 0
valdosta 74 44 69 43 73 0 0 0 0 0
cross city 75 47 71 45 76 0 0 0 0 0
apalachicola 71 50 68 50 70 0 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Red flag warning from 2 pm edt 1 pm cdt this afternoon to 7 pm
edt 6 pm cdt this evening for calhoun-central walton-
coastal franklin-coastal jefferson-coastal wakulla-gadsden-
holmes-inland bay-inland dixie-inland franklin-inland gulf-
inland jefferson-inland taylor-inland wakulla-jackson-
lafayette-leon-liberty-madison-north walton-washington.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Lf
near term... Barry
short term... Ln
long term... Ln
aviation... Lf
marine... Ln
fire weather... Lf
hydrology... Ln


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 35 mi48 min WNW 11 G 16 58°F 63°F1019.3 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 42 mi48 min NW 8.9 G 13 57°F 63°F1019.4 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 71 mi48 min N 9.9 G 15 58°F 62°F1020.1 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 85 mi48 min NW 7 G 13 63°F 63°F1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 1J0 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------N6--NW5--N6--------N9--------------N5N5
1 day agoSE5----SE7S5S5S5
G20
----Calm--S3CalmCalm------Calm--CalmCalmNW4NW6--
2 days ago5E5--5--NE3--NE4NE5----NE5NE6NE6----NE5NE6E10
G16
E6--E4--5

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
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Thu -- 12:53 AM CDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:20 AM CDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:07 PM CDT     0.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:51 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:00 PM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.90.90.80.70.60.50.50.40.40.40.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:46 AM CDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:07 AM CDT     0.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:42 AM CDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:00 PM CDT     0.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM CDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:51 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.60.40.30.20.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.20.100.10.20.40.50.60.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.