Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 1:13 PM   Moonset 1:50 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 822 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of today - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northwest 2 feet at 3 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 822 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - A frontal boundary clears area waters to the south this morning, with a ridge of high pressure settling in through Friday. A sea breeze is expected to form today, and will be stronger on Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Associated high pressure shifts from the northeast to east of area waters this weekend as another frontal system approaches. The system will remain in the vicinity of the region through at least Monday, returning chances for showers and Thunderstorms. Another ridge looks to build in from the north by Monday.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 14, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 93 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 161138 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 738 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A frontal boundary continues to slowly drift south of the region early this morning, currently draped over southern counties as of 06Z. Some areas of lower clouds have developed in these areas, but should dissipate by sunrise as the front finally clears the region. Mostly sunny skies and generally high pressure will dominate our weather today. The gradient should be just strong enough to limit the sea breeze to just right near the immediate coast. Given that the front is more or less a moisture boundary, temps will be slightly above average as high pressure starts to build aloft as well - in the upper 80s to low 90s.

A weak pressure gradient and a lack of any significant cloud cover will allow us to drop to near average temps overnight, generally mid to upper 60s and near to low 70s near the coast and St. Johns River. Some higher clouds will start to fill in later in the night, though we will remain dry.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Friday...Moisture levels increase in low level SW flow ahead of next weather system, but not enough to kick off anything more than isolated showers/storms by the afternoon hours as sea breeze fronts push inland from both coasts late in the day, but not before Max temps reach the lower 90s for most inland locations and mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast.

Friday Night...Warm and muggy conditions expected ahead of next weather system as SW flow remains elevated during the overnight hours and low temps only fall into the lower/middle 70s. Some pre- frontal showers and storms may impact portions of inland SE GA at times, but overall mostly dry conditions are expected.

Saturday and Saturday Night...Models in better agreement with slow moving frontal boundary being pushed across the region with best rainfall chances across SE GA Saturday afternoon, then into NE FL by the evening hours with activity continuing during the overnight hours as frontal boundary ends up across NE FL by sunrise Sunday morning. Timing of the frontal boundary later in the day will allow for maximum daytime heating as breezy SW flow at 15-20G30 mph will keep the Atlantic Sea Breeze pinned at the coast and push Max temps into the lower 90s all the way to the beaches, along with peak heat indices into the 100-105F range for some NE FL locations. This heating will supply enough instability for strong to severe storms with damaging winds as the main threat and the slow movement of the frontal boundary will lead to a heavy rainfall threat, especially across inland SE GA/Suwannee River Valley where wet soils from the last rainfall event will led to better chances for localized flooding. Low temps fall into the upper 60s behind the front across SE GA, while another warm and muggy night is expected across NE FL with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Sunday...Digging mid level trough through the SE US states and trailing moisture behind the frontal boundary may still lead to some lingering scattered showers and storms across the region, but confidence in this scenario is only low to moderate as not enough lingering deep moisture may be available and rainfall chances may end up lower than currently forecast by the model blends and Sunday afternoon may end with clearing skies and breezy West winds with temps at slightly lower values in the upper 80s/near 90 degrees than previous days.

Monday/Tuesday...Amplifying mid level trough off the Carolinas and associated surface low pressure development has trended the forecast cooler and drier as a North Flow on Monday and Northeast Flow on Tuesday will hold Max temps down closer to normal values in the middle/upper 80s with coolest values across SE GA and the Atlantic Coastal areas. While some coastal showers will be possible, overall rainfall chances will be lower than normal this period as well as lows falling into the 60s over inland areas.

Wednesday...Long range models have high pressure ridging building back into the region at the surface and aloft which will keep dry conditions on track, but Max temps will push back into the lower 90s over inland areas with more light/variable winds, while the East Coast sea breeze will keep Atlantic Coastal areas cooler in the 80s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Patchy fog along the I-75 corridor this morning should dissipate by 14Z. VFR conditions with west-northwesterly winds less than 10 kts prevail today. The Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned to the coast and struggle to shift inland. Winds at SGJ will shift to southeasterly around 21Z with the sea breeze. Another round of inland patchy fog will be possible during the pre-dawn hours on Friday for GNV and VQQ.

MARINE
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A frontal boundary clears area waters to the south this morning, with a ridge of high pressure settling in through Friday. A sea breeze is expected to form by Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Associated high pressure shifts from the northeast to east of area waters this weekend as another frontal system approaches. The system will remain in the vicinity of the region through at least Monday, returning chances for showers and thunderstorms. Another ridge looks to build in from the north by Monday.

Rip Currents: Offshore flow will lead to a Low Risk today, while a stronger sea breeze on Friday will lead to a Moderate Risk.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 67 89 71 / 0 0 20 30 SSI 88 71 84 74 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 92 68 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 90 69 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 65 91 71 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 90 66 92 72 / 0 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Seacamp Dock
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     6.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:30 AM EDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:43 PM EDT     5.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:52 PM EDT     1.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seacamp Dock, Cumberland Island, Georgia, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:04 AM EDT     1.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:54 AM EDT     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     1.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:18 PM EDT     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3), knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Jacksonville, FL,