Monday, June26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Burnet, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:39PM Monday June 26, 2017 1:50 PM CDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:21AMMoonset 10:08PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burnet, TX
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location: 30.79, -98.28     debug

Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 261737
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
1237 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017

Aviation discussion For 18z TAF period...

isolated shra beginning to develop across the region coming in close
proximity to all terminals in the last couple hours. Only occasional
lightning observed at TAF issuance and believe another couple hours
of heating will be needed for more widespread lightning occurs. The
isolated nature of the development will keep uncertainty high for
direct tsra impacts to any terminal, but best chance should be during
the afternoon hours. Attempted to highlight most likely time frame
with tempo groups. Model discrepancies exist on evolution of
shra tsra into the evening but generally diminish activity by around

After that point, significant model discrepancy exists with
potential re-development of MVFR ifr CIGS overnight. Have included at
least MVFR for now, but may need to lower at the 00z issuance if
models continue to trend lower.

Prev discussion issued 1048 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017

overall, the previous forecast is in good shape. Cumulus field on
satellite is becoming more agitated with isolated to scattered shower
development being noted on area radars late this morning. CU field
looks best across the edwards plateau and hill country and this is
where surface moisture convergence is being maximized as a left over
boundary remains in northern val verde county from overnight storms.

These storms have also left an MCV to the northwest of our CWA that
is moving ese. Will have to watch this feature closely as it could
serve as a focus for more numerous showers and storms later this
afternoon and evening mainly for the northern hill country and
edwards plateau. Should also see a decent coverage of activity in
the coastal plains this afternoon as the sea breeze boundary moves
into the region.

Prev discussion... Issued 648 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017

cigs vary fromVFR to ifr this morning. We think they will settle at
MVFR across the region within the next hour or two. The should
rebound toVFR by around noon at all area airports. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening. Most
likely time looks like between 18z and 22z in austin and san antonio.

Chances are lower at drt. CIGS should stayVFR overnight.

Prev discussion... Issued 405 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
short term (today through Tuesday)...

a moist southeasterly lower level flow was across south central texas
early this morning with pws little changed from this past weekend and
ranging from 1.5 inches edwards plateau to 2 inches east of i-35 to
the coastal plains. This is feeding a band of showers in a convergent
zone from the middle texas coast into central texas. Other showers
are trying to develop over the edwards plateau to rio grande plains.

Meanwhile, a linear MCS is moving across the permian basin. Showers
will continue to develop this morning from the coastal plains into
central texas in this flow, and over the hill country due to upslope
flow there. As heating destabilizes the airmass and with surface
boundary collisions, thunderstorms will also develop. After sunset
with loss of heating, showers and thunderstorms will tend to wane.

However, the MCV or its remnant surface boundary generated by the
permian basin MCS will likely be approaching the edwards plateau.

This should be enough to keep showers and thunderstorms going or
redeveloping over the hill country and edwards plateau this evening
into the overnight. Later tonight into morning, streamer showers are
expected again moving further inland from the coastal plains. Little
change in airmass is indicated on Tuesday with a similar pattern to
today. However, the mcv, possible mid level shear axis, may enhance
shower and thunderstorm development. The main threat in the short
term remains locally heavy rains that may cause some minor flooding.

Some minor stream flows or rises were noted from locally heavy rains
this weekend. Cannot rule out wind gusts to 30 mph with the stronger
storms. Temperatures continue below normal due to clouds and rain.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)...

subtle changes take place mid to late week as the subtropical ridge
weakly builds into our area with a mid level shear axis along or just
off the texas coast. The moist airmass shifts to the east with lower
pws, near 1 inch, moving into the edwards and the 1.5 to 2 inch
range shifting to the i-35 corridor to coastal plains closer to the
mid level shear axis. Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue
for the central and eastern parts of south central texas with most
activity during the early morning to evening hours and enhanced by
the seabreeze. Most models build the subtropical ridge a little more
over our area next weekend, effectively ending the rain chances.

However, the ECMWF show the shear axis moving west across southern
texas maintaining at least slight rain chances. For now, the forecast
has followed the model consensus. A very slow warming trend develops
Wednesday and continues through Friday, then more stable
temperatures next weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 72 90 72 92 74 20 40 10 20 -
austin bergstrom intl airport 71 89 72 91 74 20 40 10 20 -
new braunfels muni airport 71 90 71 91 74 20 40 10 30 -
burnet muni airport 70 87 70 89 73 20 40 10 10 -
del rio intl airport 73 92 73 94 75 30 30 10 10 -
georgetown muni airport 71 88 71 90 74 20 40 10 20 -
hondo muni airport 71 91 71 92 73 20 40 10 20 -
san marcos muni airport 71 90 71 91 74 20 40 10 20 -
la grange - fayette regional 72 89 73 90 75 30 50 20 30 20
san antonio intl airport 72 90 73 92 74 20 40 10 20 -
stinson muni airport 73 91 73 92 75 20 40 10 20 -

Ewx watches warnings advisories

Mesoscale aviation... Tb3
synoptic grids... Hampshire
public service data collection... Yb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX4 mi57 minVar 510.00 miOvercast85°F68°F57%1018.6 hPa
Horseshoe Bay Resort Airpark, TX19 mi55 minESE 410.00 miOvercast83°F71°F68%1019.6 hPa
Llano, Llano Municipal Airport, TX20 mi80 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F69°F62%1021 hPa
Lampasas, Lampasas Airport, TX22 mi55 minN 0 miMostly Cloudy82°F72°F72%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from BMQ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE8NE11NE106E7E7E7E5E4NE5E6E3E3CalmSE6SE4CalmCalmCalmSE34CalmCalm5
2 days agoS96S7SE8S64SE7SE6SE6SE7S6S8S9S5S4S6S5SE6E8E10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.