Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:08 AM   Moonset 10:03 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 290746 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Latest area radars trends and HRRR guidance are in good agreement with the continuation of isolated shower activity and even a thunderstorm or two over the far east of the local area or east of Highway 77 for the rest of the overnight period. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country to upper 60s to low 70s for areas along and east of I-35 and the Coastal Plains. A dry-line is slowly pushing to the northwest overnight with dewpoints in the 70s across the moist sector. A few stations are reporting visibility at a 1/4 mile over the Hill Country due to dense fog development. Areas of fog to widespread dense fog are possible the rest of the overnight through Monday morning. We are closely monitoring surface observations and latest hires models for the possibility of the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory over parts of the Hill Country, I- 35 corridor and the Coastal Plains. Otherwise, expect cloudy conditions for most areas through late this morning with fog lifting at or shortly after 9 AM. Mostly sunny skies are in store for this afternoon with highs in mid to upper 80s across the Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor to the mid 90s along the Rio Grande. There is a slight chance for a storm or two to develop across the Coastal Plains this afternoon. Also, some of the hires models are indicating isolated thunderstorm activity over the Mexican mountains that could move into the Rio Grande Plains late this afternoon. Clouds return across most areas this evening into Tuesday morning with patchy to areas of fog developing across the Coastal Plains. Lows ranging from the low 60s to low 70s. There are slight to low end chances for showers and storms along and east of the I-35 corridor and the Coastal Plains on Tuesday as an upper level short wave moves across the local area. Also, can't rule out a storm or two moving into Val Verde County late Tuesday afternoon ahead of the dry-line that stays over west Texas for this period.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A series of mid level shortwaves will move over Texas in a westerly flow aloft. The dryline remains across West Texas with the exception of Thursday when it mixes east into Val Verde County. An upslope flow develops over the Serranias del Burro of Mexico each afternoon.
There remains uncertainty on a frontal incursion on Friday as operational models and their ensembles give various forecasts and impacts. Regardless, any front is expected to dissipate or retreat to the north by Saturday. A moist, breezy southerly lower level flow will prevail. These features along with daytime heating should produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms over various parts of our area. Currently, the highest POPs are on Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. Forecast soundings show moderate to high CAPE and low to moderate shear indicating a potential for a few strong to severe storms, at times. In addition, above normal PWs prevail showing a potential for locally heavy rains especially where storms train or stall. WPC has parts of our area in risks for excessive rainfall for Wednesday and Thursday. Though there are POPs most of the time, there will be many rain free periods. Above normal temperatures prevail.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

MVFR to IFR cigs are forecast through to the early part of the overnight period along the I-35 sites. Then, areas of dense fog are forecast to develop for the second part of the overnight period into Monday morning with LIFR vbsys expected for KAUS, KSAT and KSSF. Fog begins to lift at or around 14Z with MVFR cigs mid to late morning followed by VFR conditions for Monday afternoon and evening.
Light to variable winds are expected overnight into Monday morning with a southeast wind flow around 5 to 10 knots during Monday afternoon. For KDRT, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the forecast period with light northeasterly winds overnight into Monday morning and then shifting to the southeast mid to late morning and continuing into the afternoon with wind speeds around the 7 to 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 89 69 87 71 / 0 0 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 66 86 70 / 0 0 30 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 68 88 71 / 0 0 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 86 66 86 69 / 0 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 73 96 75 / 10 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 65 86 70 / 0 0 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 68 91 71 / 0 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 66 87 70 / 10 0 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 69 85 72 / 10 0 40 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 69 87 72 / 0 0 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 90 70 88 73 / 0 0 20 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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