Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:32 AM   Moonset 3:42 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 041154 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 654 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

East to southeasterly winds at the surface are in place across south central Texas early this morning according to the latest observations.
In addition, radar VWP plots show a fairly deep fetch of southerly winds from just above the surface to around 10k MSL. Radar data also shows some light showers across the coastal plains and out west along the Rio Grande. Elsewhere, surface obs show a stout cold front across the Texas Panhandle.

Precipitation chances this morning will be low and in the form of either light drizzle or light rain showers. Clouds will remain thick with plenty of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere. We also expect to see patchy fog continue across most areas this morning. For the afternoon hours, rain chances across south central Texas remain fairly low, with models showing convection most favored across west Texas as the above mentioned front drops southward. We will keep a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as some of the hi-res members show some development during the peak heating hours. Low clouds have been slow to dissipate over the last several days and this may put a damper on afternoon heating and destabilization of the lower levels. Some breaks in the clouds should occur farther west along the Rio Grande and into the southern Edwards Plateau region, and we have shown some slightly higher rain chances across these mentioned areas for this afternoon. Daytime highs will be tricky again with the expected cloud cover. We have gone with lower 90s along the Rio Grande with 80s elsewhere.

The weather pattern should turn active as the evening progresses for areas generally west of the I-35 corridor. First up will be convection that develops over the higher terrain of Mexico that may move into the Rio Grande plains during the late afternoon or evening hours. In addition, convection moving out of west Texas should congeal into a cluster with the leading edge moving into the Hill country and southern Edwards Plateau during the late evening hours to around Midnight. During the early morning hours on Sunday, models suggest this cluster of storms will move east or southeast into the I-35 corridor. There will be a concern for severe storms this evening and overnight with large to possibly very large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. In addition, a tornado can't be ruled out. As of now, it appears the lower Trans Pecos region into the southern Edwards Plateau, including northern Val Verde county will be under the higher chances for severe weather, with SPC showing an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) in the latest Day 1 outlook.
It would not take much expansion for this higher risk area to move into portions of the western Hill Country. For the early morning hours on Sunday, the severe threat will shift east and southeast into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor and areas generally along and north of an Eagle Pass to San Antonio to Taylor line will be in the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) category for severe storms. For areas mainly east of the I-35 corridor, there will be a Marginal Risk for severe storms. The models show good potential for some locally heavy rainfall as well, especially across the southern Edwards Plateau into portions of the Hill Country where some of the hi-res models show more rounds of precipitation persisting well into Sunday morning along the southward dropping leading edge of the cold front or convective outflow boundary. Precipitation chances for Sunday afternoon will largely depend on how convection unfolds during the morning hours. For now, we will show a decent chance of precipitation during the afternoon hours across most locations. Given the expected precipitation and cloud cover, highs on Sunday will trend downward, with upper 70s to upper 80s in the forecast.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain chances trend downward Sunday night into early Monday as a more stable zonal pattern aloft builds into TX. PWat values will remain elevated for a few showers, perhaps an isolated storm to form during the day Monday. Models show a thermal ridge encroaching into our western counties by midweek, but have trended slightly cooler and less dry over the past several runs. Even so, the mixing of dry air into western counties could bring some triple digit heat while bringing up the heat index to near triple digits over central counties. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmest days of the week, but Friday morning cold front has trended earlier to a late Thursday arrival, which could lead toward further moderation of the mat temp on that day. No significant rain chances are depicted along the front, but some overrunning rain chances are suggested for Friday. If this occurs, the max temps for Friday will be trending down as well.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

IFR along with patchy fog and drizzle will continue along the I-35 corridor for a few more hours this morning. Cigs will be slow to lift, but we should see a return to upper end MVFR around 18Z, with VFR by mid-afternoon. Attention will then turn to the possibility of TSRA at DRT this evening. For now, will mention a PROB30 group between 00-04Z. MVFR cigs return to most areas between 03-05Z, with a cluster of storms possibly moving into the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning around 06Z. For now, will only mention VCSH but this may have to be amended pending subsequent hi-res model runs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 84 70 82 71 / 20 70 50 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 68 81 70 / 20 60 50 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 71 84 71 / 10 60 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 81 67 79 70 / 30 70 50 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 72 87 74 / 30 60 50 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 67 80 69 / 20 70 50 20 Hondo Muni Airport 86 69 83 70 / 20 60 50 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 69 82 70 / 20 60 50 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 72 82 72 / 10 50 50 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 71 82 72 / 10 60 50 20 Stinson Muni Airport 87 72 84 73 / 10 50 50 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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