Friday, February22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Burnet, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:25PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:12 PM CST (03:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:05PMMoonset 9:25AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burnet, TX
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location: 30.79, -98.28     debug

Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 230017
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
617 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019

Based on afternoon mesoscale models have made a few minor changes to
the ongoing forecast. Temperatures across the NE part of the area
have remained in the 50s so hourly temperatures were retrended to
reflect the near stable temperatures this evening before dropping
overnight. Forecast soundings across the area continue to show a very
moist atmosphere at the surface and because of this the potential
for fog (and the addition of drizzle) has been expanded westward
beginning around 9 pm tonight. Fog should be patchy in nature across
much of the area for most of the night with precipitation being
primarily drizzle through the first half of the night and then a mix
of drizzle and light rain showers as the front nears towards morning.

As noted in the aviation discussion below there is still low
confidence in how dense the fog will get overnight. While some model
guidance does bring fog across parts of the area (potentially across
the edwards plateau hill country and then the coastal plains) down
to 1 4 mile winds ahead of the front may keep visibility above
advisory levels. Will continue with the mention of the potential of
dense fog in the hwo, but have left explicit mention out of the grids
due the uncertainty.

The other item of note in the afternoon meso models is the strength
of the low level inversion - the cap - ahead of the front. Looking at
the texas tech WRF and other models the cap hangs around until right
ahead of the front, and even then the front may struggle to erode
the cap enough until it is south and east of the i-35 corridor. Based
on this thunder has been removed from the forecast before 3 am and
then focuses along the front from that point on as the front moves
east through the area. The primary precipitation will be showers, but
an isolated storm or two could break through the cap, mainly east of
the i-35 corridor towards the coastal plains by sunrise.

The progress of the front eastward will clear out the precipitation
and fog with clearing taking place behind it. Gusty west winds are
forecast which will lead to critical fire weather west of us hwy 281
where the humidities will drop through the day as drier air moves in
(refer to the fire weather discussion for more on this). The rest of
the forecast for Saturday morning and beyond remains intact.

Prev discussion issued 558 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019

deteriorating flying conditions are expected this evening and
tonight ahead of a strong cold front expected to clear the terminals
between 10-13z Saturday. MVFR ifr ceilings at aus, sat, and ssf will
continue to lower to lifr by 09z as moisture remains trapped beneath
a strengthening low level inversion. Forecast soundings indicate an
almost completely subcloud layer and may see some light drizzle occur
overnight as ceilings lower. A brief round of shra may even be
possible near aus as the front clears the terminal.

Additionally, another round of lifr vlifr fog development will also
be possible at the i-35 terminals as ceilings lower overnight, but
light surface winds veering ahead of the front may affect how low
visibilities are able to drop. Adjustments to severity may be needed
as a result. Expect ceilings and visibilities to dramatically improve
toVFR by 13z after FROPA with gusty westerly winds persisting
through the end of the TAF period. Crosswind issues are likely at
aus Sat drt during the day on Saturday.

Prev discussion... Issued 321 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019
short term (tonight through Saturday night)...

the latest water vapor satellite loop shows a deep upper trough over
the western third of the lower 48 states, with a closed low noted
over the desert southwest. Across south central texas, the visible
satellite loop shows low clouds have dissipated across the rio grande
plains and southern edwards plateau, with clouds persisting

Fog development looks to occur again this evening and overnight,
especially for areas along and west of the balcones escarpment. Hi-
res guidance along with SREF data hints at the possibility of another
round of dense fog. We could also see some dense fog develop near the
coastal plains, including the southern portions of karnes, dewitt and
lavaca counties. Elsewhere, fog development should remain limited
across the rio grande plains and southern edwards plateau as wind
speeds will remain higher across these areas.

We do expect a low chance for showers this evening, with rain chances
increasing slightly as we head into the overnight hours with the
approach of a pacific cold front. We will also continue to mention
some isolated thunderstorms from late tonight into Saturday morning
as the pacific cold front and an upper trough axis move through.

A quick end to the precipitation is expected behind the cold front,
with attention then turning to increasing fire weather concerns
behind the front on Saturday. Please see the fire weather discussion
below for more information. Warmer temperatures will occur across all
areas on Saturday, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)...

we expect dry weather for all areas Sunday and Monday along with
temperatures remaining at or slightly below normal. Return southerly
flow in the low-levels begins to develop Monday night and this will
result in a low chance for showers mainly east of i-35 for the period
Monday night through Tuesday night.

A weak cold front moves through Wednesday night, bringing slightly
drier air to the region and a brief reprieve from low rain chances.

We then expect enough of an uptick in moisture along with a weak
upper trough axis to result in low rain chances for most areas
Wednesday night through at least Thursday night. With the medium
range models showing mainly zonal flow over the high plains states
during the early and middle portion of next week, we should see the
coldest air remaining well north of the region. We will keep
temperatures close to climatological normals for most of the upcoming
work week.

Fire weather...

a pacific cold front will move across south central texas Saturday
morning. The cold front will bring much drier air to the all areas,
along with gusty west to northwest winds, especially west of the i-35
corridor. The combination of dry air, warm temperatures and breezy
conditions is expected to result in critical fire weather conditions
for counties along and west of a kerrville to hondo to pearsall line.

Expect minimum humidities from near 13 to 20 percent along with west
to northwest 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
across the above mentioned areas.

For the remainder of south central texas, elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions are expected as minimum humidities drop to
near 20-30 percent and breezy west to northwest winds persist from
mid-morning into the afternoon hours.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 54 70 42 64 42 50 20 0 0 0
austin bergstrom intl airport 54 70 41 64 40 50 20 0 0 0
new braunfels muni airport 55 71 41 65 41 50 20 0 0 0
burnet muni airport 49 67 37 61 38 50 10 0 0 0
del rio intl airport 50 73 40 71 43 10 0 0 0 0
georgetown muni airport 51 69 39 62 38 50 20 0 0 0
hondo muni airport 55 71 41 69 42 40 10 0 0 0
san marcos muni airport 55 70 40 65 40 50 20 0 0 0
la grange - fayette regional 56 70 42 64 41 50 40 0 0 0
san antonio intl airport 56 71 43 66 43 40 10 0 0 0
stinson muni airport 57 72 43 67 43 40 20 0 0 0

Ewx watches warnings advisories
Fire weather watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
for bandera-dimmit-edwards-frio-kerr-kinney-maverick-medina-real-
uvalde-val verde-zavala.

Aviation... Huffman
short-term long-term... Treadway

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX4 mi80 minE 57.00 miOvercast53°F52°F96%1012.3 hPa
Horseshoe Bay Resort Airpark, TX19 mi78 minESE 310.00 miOvercast55°F53°F93%1012.2 hPa
Llano, Llano Municipal Airport, TX20 mi83 minE 710.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1012.5 hPa
Lampasas, Lampasas Airport, TX22 mi78 minSE 510.00 miOvercast52°F50°F94%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from BMQ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN53E3CalmE4NE6E10Calm5W5NW4N3NE4CalmE54E3E5NE3E5E6E7E5E7
1 day agoE4N4E3CalmSE3CalmSE3SE5E4E3E7E6NE5NE9N4NE7NE4E7E6E7E8NE6NE45
2 days agoN8NW8NW6NW5NW10NW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.