Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 5:16 PM   Moonset 3:58 AM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay-southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 405 Pm Cdt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east around 5 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 405 Pm Cdt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis - Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 202330 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 630 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday afternoon. The exception will be late tonight with the development of some localized patchy fog primarily across portions of interior southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama. Any fog should dissipate around sunrise. Light and variable winds tonight become southeasterly around 5-10 knots on Tuesday. /14

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 320 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Dry conditions will continue across the forecast area tonight through Tuesday as deep ridging continues to build across over Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Upper level troughing continues off the Atlantic coast and also over the western third of the CONUS. Increasing subsidence from the riding will continue to prevent formation of any showers or storms through the near term, and also allow for above normal temperatures. Expect mostly clear skies tonight and then a continuation of partly cloudy skies on Tuesday with daytime heating. Light and variable winds for most locations tonight, then expect a light southeast to southerly flow on Tuesday, slightly stronger near the coast during the afternoon hours.

As previously mentioned, temperatures will be a little above normal both tonight and Tuesday. Lows tonight will mainly be ranging from the mid 60s over most interior locations to the upper 60s and lower 70s closer to and along the coast. High temperatures on Tuesday will again be quite warm, primarily warming into the upper 80s for most locations (perhaps a few lower 90s, especially over portions of southeast Mississippi), and in the mid 80s near the coast (with a few lower 80s possible along the beaches and barrier islands).
DS/12

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

An upper level ridge stretching north over the eastern Conus shifts southeast as a series of shortwave troughs move over the Southeast.
Upper level high pressure remains over the Gulf of Mexico into Latin America, though. A surface ridge builds west over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing a more organized onshore flow to the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast. Moisture levels increase mainly over areas west of the forecast area, with subsidence from the upper ridge counter-balancing the flow off the Gulf and keeping moisture increases modest. Subsidence from the upper level high pressure will also limit any precipitation over or near the forecast area, along with keeping temperatures above seasonal norms. High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures see an uptick through the Short Term, with mainly 60s Tuesday night rising into the mid 60s to low 70s by Thursday night.

Even with an increasing tidal cycle into mid week, light and variable flow south of the coast will bring weak onshore swell and a low risk of rip currents into mid week.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Guidance is advertising the band of higher moisture levels west of the forecast area shifting to the northern half of the Southeast and Tennessee River Valley. With several rounds of shortwave energy passing north of the forecast area, showers and thunderstorms return to the Southeast. For the forecast area, the highest chance of rain remains north of Highway 84, and a slight chance to low chance at that. High pressure over the Gulf remains in control through the Extended, with high temperatures around 90 to the low 90s over most of the forecast area. Moisture levels creep upward enough that daytime Heat Indices rise to around 100F by Sunday and last into the coming week. Low temperatures creep up into the around 70 to low 70s range over the forecast area by the weekend.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Expect a primarily east to southeast flow over the marine area through midweek, then a more consistent southerly flow by late week and into the early part of the weekend. Seas generally remaining 2 feet or less through most of the period, possibly building slightly by the weekend. No significant hazards to small craft are expected at this time. DS/12

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 67 86 67 86 68 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 69 84 69 85 71 86 73 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 71 84 71 84 72 86 74 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 62 89 63 90 66 92 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 65 89 65 90 66 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Camden 63 87 64 89 66 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Crestview 62 89 63 90 65 91 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:58 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:23 PM CDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:58 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:07 AM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:29 PM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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