Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 4:21 AM   Moonset 5:06 PM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 454 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Patchy fog early this morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A moderate chop. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 454 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.

FXUS64 KMOB 051005 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 505 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Satellite nighttime microphysics and area observations show that patchy to areas of fog has developed once again across the area early this morning. At this time, however, dense fog coverage does not seem to be as widespread as it was yesterday, with only a couple sites occasionally dropping to 1/4 mile visibility. Due to this dense fog remaining rather localized and visibilities fluctuating up and down at other sites, decided against issuing a Dense Fog Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor closely over the coming hours and may consider issuing an SPS for low visibilities if dense fog coverage increases further and persists longer. Fog will begin dissipating by around 8AM CDT.

A general zonal flow pattern aloft is expected to continue through the period as an upper ridge lingers over the Gulf. Additionally, a shortwave trough over the southern Plains lifts northeastward through Monday. Although this feature remains to our northwest, it will help to bring some weak diffluence into the area during the afternoon and early evening hours tonight. This trough looks to still influence our region through early Monday afternoon as it passes to our north. At the surface, large high pressure over the western Atlantic allows for southerly winds to continue through the period. Very similar to yesterday, daytime heating, in combination with weak forcing from the diffluence aloft, and ample moisture in place from the persistent southerly flow, should allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop during the afternoon, primarily over interior areas. Weak shear in place will help to keep convection disorganized and pulse-like in nature, likely developing off the sea breeze boundary at first, and spreading via outflow boundary collisions. As is the case for this type of convection, cannot rule out one or two stronger storms that would be capable of producing gusty downdraft winds. PoPs will lower by the late evening and into the overnight hours due to the loss of daytime heating. By Monday morning, CAMs hint at some isolated, light shower activity across our coastal counties, likely associated with the shortwave moving to our north. This activity will translate inland through the late morning into the early afternoon before drying out by the late afternoon as the trough lift away from the region and shortwave ridging builds in behind it. Convection that does manage to develop on Monday will be very isolated in nature, with slightly better coverage expected over our northern tier of counties.

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the period, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid to upper 60s inland and remain in the low 70s along the coast. A Moderate risk of rip currents remains in place through the period. Additional fog development cannot be ruled out again tonight, although cloud cover associated with the shortwave aloft may help to keep development very patchy and localized. /96

SHORT/LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A Upper level ridging will slowly build over the region Tuesday through Wednesday, being most pronounced on Wednesday. A more zonal upper flow pattern will then return by the end of the week.
There could be a few isolated showers and storms on Tuesday as the ridging begins to build, but by Wednesday with ridging and associated subsidence more in place across the region, we expect mostly dry conditions then. Rain chances return for inland areas on Thursday afternoon as upper flow becomes more zonal and a cold front begins to approach the area from the west. Persistent onshore flow through the period will result in increased moisture later in the week and storm coverage is expected to increase to around 40 to 50 percent as the cold front pushes into and across our area Friday and Friday night. This front should move east across our area by early Saturday morning with dry conditions likely returning by Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will gradually warm through mid week as the upper ridging builds into the Southeast. Highs are expected to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday and Thursday for most locations, except low to mid 80s along and near the coast.
Low temperatures will continue to range from the mid and upper 60s inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast Monday and Tuesday nights, then mainly in the 70s across the entire region on Wednesday night. Relatively cooler temperatures are anticipated Friday, mainly in the lower 80s, given the increased rain chances and cloud cover associated with the front. Notably cooler temperatures expected to begin moving into the region Friday night with the frontal passage, with lows cooling into the mid and upper 50s over inland areas and low to mid 60s at the coast. On Saturday highs will only rise into the mid and upper 70s inland and on the beaches, but a few lower 80s just inland from the coast along the I-10 corridor. Dewpoint temperatures will be much lower behind the front on Saturday as well, so it should be a comfortable day with low humidity as well. DS/12

MARINE
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week.
Slightly higher winds are expected during the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation.
Seas offshore will gradually increase to around 3 to 4 feet by the middle to latter part of the week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 86 69 85 70 86 72 87 73 / 20 10 20 0 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 83 71 84 72 83 74 85 75 / 10 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 Destin 82 71 82 72 82 74 83 76 / 10 10 20 0 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 90 66 88 66 89 68 91 71 / 40 20 20 0 20 0 10 10 Waynesboro 89 66 88 67 89 69 92 71 / 40 20 30 0 20 0 10 10 Camden 89 66 87 67 88 69 91 71 / 40 30 30 0 20 0 10 10 Crestview 89 65 88 65 88 67 89 70 / 20 10 20 0 20 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Lower Hall Landing
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Sun -- 12:51 AM CDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:11 AM CDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:04 PM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Sun -- 04:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:06 AM CDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:48 PM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:17 PM CDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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