Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 8:44 AM   Moonset 11:46 PM

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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 1012 Am Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north late. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tonight - Northeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. Thunderstorms likely. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Tuesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 1012 Am Cdt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate offshore flow will continue through tonight. A light to moderate onshore flow returns to the marine area on Sunday and persists into the early part of the coming week as a system approaches the area from the west.

FXUS64 KMOB 111132 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 632 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue has high clouds move overhead. Winds will remain light out of the north becoming light and variable overnight. BB/03

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Significantly calmer than 24 hours ago as upper troughing has dug into the eastern US and ridging begins to build over the central US. Unfortunately this will not last long as the next upper low is sitting there menacingly over the desert southwest. For now though we can enjoy some slightly cooler and drier conditions as the surface cold front has surged well offshore. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across most of the are this weekend and few locations might reach the mid 80s along the immediate coast. Lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper 50s to low 60s. A Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through today before decreasing to low Sunday. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Appears we will begin to see a quick transition to a weather pattern than becomes more unsettled to open up the work week. A low amplitude, short-wave upper ridge over the Gulf Sunday night translates eastward early in the upcoming week. This allows an active southwest flow at high levels to become oriented over the deep south. Meanwhile, an upper level storm system advances eastward out of the Central Plains, resulting in an increase in deep layer ascent within a zone of diffluent flow aloft from LA, northeast into AL through the day Monday and especially into Monday night. This coincides with a northward push of deep Gulf moisture with PWAT's lifting above 2.00" as a surface warm front draped from LA to the northern Gulf Monday, lifts north northeast over the central Gulf coast Monday night. Notably, this lies well above 2 standard deviations above the climatological means for May 14th PWAT. Considering the orientation of and increase in high level flow, well above normal deep moisture and frontal ascent, the stage appears set for some decent rains to begin spreading in Monday and Monday night which could lead to localized flooding problems in areas subject to poor drainage, considering recent rains from last storm system. The latest Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) (12Z Mon-12Z Tue) shows the entire area within a slight risk. The National Centers do indicate that there is some potential for a targeted upgrade of the ERO to a moderate risk on later forecasts, but considering areal spread of the rainfall footprint amongst weather models, the result as of now lends to too low of confidence to go with it yet.

There is also some potential of strong to isolated severe storms mainly along and south of the warm front's warm sector late in the short term. At this time, the risk is marginal for our area Mon/Mon night, with the better risk west of the local area from the Lower MS River to east TX.

Overnight lows moderate through the period, lifting to well into the 60s interior and into the lower to mid 70s coast by Monday night and well above the climatological means for mid May. With clouds and increase in precipitation Monday, highs range mostly in the upper half of the 70s interior to lower 80s coast.

Rip current risk increases to Moderate. /10

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An on-going area of better showers/storm coverage looks to be positioned along and east of I-65 Tuesday morning within a region of stronger flow and deep moisture ahead of an eastward advancing front. Precipitation is expected to decrease from west to east going into Tuesday afternoon and evening as the front settles southward and drier air begins to spread in at the base of the upper storm system's trof axis pushing through the TN River Valley. The front stalls mid-week to the south of the coast and appears to head back north the latter half of the week in response to next southern stream upper level storm ejecting eastward out of TX. This favors yet another round of showers and storms. Could be some heavy rain and/or severe weather with the late week feature but too early for details.

Daily highs in the 80s. Nights in the lower to mid 60s interior to lower to mid 70s coast.

Rip current risk increases to High levels by the middle of the work week. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A moderate to occasionally strong northerly wind this morning will slowly relax in the wake of a cold front. Winds will slowly become onshore by early next week in advance of our next system.
Rain and storms return to the marine waters later next week as winds and seas steadily increase. BB/03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 83 63 83 66 79 68 85 66 / 0 0 0 30 90 80 70 10 Pensacola 83 66 81 69 80 72 83 70 / 0 0 0 30 80 90 80 20 Destin 83 68 81 70 81 73 82 72 / 0 0 0 20 60 90 90 20 Evergreen 81 59 81 61 79 66 83 64 / 0 0 0 30 80 80 90 10 Waynesboro 80 60 79 61 77 65 84 61 / 0 0 10 40 90 70 70 10 Camden 78 58 81 61 76 64 82 62 / 0 0 0 30 80 80 70 20 Crestview 83 58 83 62 82 66 83 65 / 0 0 0 20 70 90 90 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Lower Hall Landing
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Sat -- 05:33 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:23 PM CDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:46 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Sat -- 02:28 AM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:45 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:07 PM CDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:46 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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