Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Riverside, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:15PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:31 PM CDT (21:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:57PMMoonset 8:34AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Riverside, TX
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location: 30.88, -95.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 222020
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
320 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019

Discussion
While not as breezy as yesterday, the wind is still fairly breezy
across the area. Despite that, temperatures continue to scrape to
around 90 degrees across the area this afternoon. Temperatures
will continue to be the focus of the next week or so, as the
environment continues to resemble something more like early summer
than spring.

Guidance is increasingly focused on a weak disturbance managing to
squeeze out a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm tomorrow,
primarily in the west. It shouldn't amount to much, but tomorrow
may not be completely dry across southeast texas. For our next
significant chance of rain, we will have to look until the middle
of next week... Or longer.

Near term [through tonight]
A variance of partly to mostly cloudy conditions are in place
across southeast texas this afternoon with nothing of note on the
radar screen. Winds of 15 to a little over 20 mph are occurring
across most of the area, with gusts of 25-30 mph. This puts us on
the edge of a wind advisory, but don't expect winds to come up any
more, so will hold off on that for now.

Despite the clouds and though winds should help with the vertical
mixing, we're still warming fairly well this afternoon. Several
spots have reached 90 degrees, with the rest of the area in the
upper half of the 80s. Tonight, those winds and clouds will have
the reverse impact on cooling, keeping temperatures up through the
night. Look for overnight lows to be even a bit warmer than last
night, only falling into the middle to upper 70s.

Short term [Thursday through Friday night]
While no explicit record warm minimum temps are forecast at this
time, those records won't be entirely safe on Thursday - it will
be another day to watch the thermometer closely.

Guidance continues to indicate a very subtle upper vort max, and
nearly unanimously squeezes out some very light precip well to the
west of houston tomorrow afternoon. I suppose, with onshore flow
and the developing strong upper ridge centered well to our east,
that it's not out of the question. Precipitable water values in
that area are progged to be around or even a little above 1.5
inches, as well. Still, I would expect most everyone to stay dry.

I chose not to go higher than slight chance and low end chance
pops for the afternoon.

As the upper ridge continues over the southeast continues to
reign, Friday looks pretty much exactly like Thursday, only
without the rain chances.

Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]
Very little change through the weekend and into early next week.

The main question will be how far west does the upper ridge
migrate in the coming days? Some retrograde motion should be
expected, especially early in the work week, as i'd expect the
ridge to beef up a bit in advance of a deepening upper trough to
our west. The more the MAX heights drift our way, the warmer we
can expect to be. I've overshot the guidance consensus on highs in
this time frame, but not by much - just enough to keep highs
around the lower 90s and not slip back into the 80s. Regardless,
we should not see the torch action the southeastern states have
ahead of them.

For the midweek, we'll be watching how well the western trough can
break down the upper ridge as it moves east. This will potentially
bring our next solid chance of rain. The GFS is all on board with
this idea, and moves a pretty coherent line of showers and storms
into southeast texas. The canadian is a little less sure of the
idea, and the euro is strongly team ridge. This creates a split
even amongst blended guidance. Those blends that are more gfs-
heavy are giving me high pops, more euro-dominated blends are dry.

This is 8+ days out, so this seems like a perfect time to punt and
see where we're at after another run or two.

Aviation [18z TAF issuance]
Breezy again today and Thursday. Skies have trended towardVFR
and this should prevail through the afternoon except perhaps
lbx gls where intermittent MVFR ceilings will remain possible this
afternoon. Overall a drying trend noted in the profiles as pw of
1.2" today diminishes down to closer to 1" tonight then rebounds
back to 1.3-1.4" Thursday but still capped. Should see MVFR around
1500-2000ft ceilings develop between 02-04z over most of the
sites and prevail until after 15z Thursday. Winds today gusty with
16015g25kt being typical as well as tomorrow. 45* add discussion
here.

Marine
Persistent southeasterly flow on tap through at least early next
week. Winds should increase tonight to 15 to 25 knots then gradually
weaken Saturday 10-15 kts into early Monday then begin to increase
back up 15-20 knots again by late Monday. Seas of 6-10 feet
overnight in the offshore waters should gradually lessen Thursday
afternoon through Saturday with a persistent long SE fetch seas of 3-
7 feet should remain through the weekend. SCA in place for all of
the upper tx coastal waters tonight through 7 am Fri except
galveston bay through 7 am Thu and this will likely need a scec
after.

Coastal flood advisory will continue along the gulf facing coast.

Minor coastal flooding remains a possibility around times of high
tide. Wave run up and strong rip currents will prevail with building
seas overnight. As the seas slowly lower Friday as well as the
overall amplitude of the astronomical tide range the threat for
coastal flooding should slightly lower but will still have strong
rip currents.

45

Climate
Low temperatures this morning were a good 10 to nearly 20 degrees
above normal across the area. As of this afternoon, galveston and
both houston climate sites are on pace to tie or break record warm
minimum temperatures for the day. But... We still have until
midnight for temperatures to fall below record values, so don't
start counting on records just yet. Check back overnight for the
official word.

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 75 89 74 89 72 0 10 0 0 0
houston (iah) 77 88 75 88 74 0 10 0 0 0
galveston (gls) 78 83 78 83 78 10 10 0 0 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm cdt Thursday for the following
zones: brazoria islands... Galveston island and bolivar
peninsula... Matagorda islands.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for the
following zones: coastal galveston... Coastal harris.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt Friday for the following
zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship
channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island to
freeport tx out 20 nm... Matagorda bay... Waters from
freeport to matagorda ship channel tx from 20 to 60
nm... Waters from high island to freeport tx from 20 to 60
nm.

Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt Thursday for the following
zones: galveston bay.

Near term... Luchs
short term... Luchs
long term... Luchs
aviation... 45
marine... 45
climate... Luchs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 86 mi38 min SE 8.9 G 17 83°F 81°F1011.6 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntsville, Huntsville Municipal Airport, TX13 mi39 minSSE 7 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F71°F52%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from UTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5353SE6
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Tide / Current Tables for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
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Lynchburg Landing
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Wed -- 06:03 AM CDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:35 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:22 PM CDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-00.10.30.60.91.11.31.41.41.41.41.31.21.11.11.11

Tide / Current Tables for Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas
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Point Barrow
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:33 AM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:27 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:51 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.40.2-0-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.20.50.70.91.11.21.21.21.21.11.11.11.111

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.