Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 11:18 AM   Moonset 12:44 AM

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FXUS64 KHGX 141704 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1204 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The short term will be dominated by surface high pressure and modest ridging aloft. In other words, the short term weather is actually quiet for once! Some communities may encounter fog this morning. Any fog should lift by mid-morning, yielding to a mostly sunny and warm day. The air will be drier, with afternoon dew points averaging in the low/mid 60s. Afternoon temperatures will generally be in the 85 to 90 degree range. Inland temps fall into the 60s tonight (70s at the coast). Couldn't rule out patchy fog development by Wednesday morning. Wednesday looks similar but with a little more mid/upper ridging than Tuesday. Therefore, afternoon temperatures are forecast to be a little hotter, averaging around 90 degrees for most inland areas (~mid 80s near the coast). Wednesday night is expected to be more humid and a tad warmer. There may even be a few showers after midnight. These showers are a harbinger of the active weather to come. But I will let the long term forecaster dwell on that topic.

Enjoy the calm while it lasts!

Self

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Still looking for our next best chance of rain in the Thursday-Friday time period as a series of disturbances move across the area in association with the next upper level trough. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along with possible strong/severe storms as moisture levels rise and instability increases. We will need to keep an eye on how the models handle this next system. The current forecast has the highest rainfall totals from I-10 northward with the higher numbers the further northward you go. These higher totals up north (approaching 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible) are across locations that are already saturated, so we might end up needing another Flood Watch.
Once this system exits off to the east, a much drier forecast will cover the area over the weekend and into the start of next week.

With expected rains/clouds in the area on Thursday and Friday, look for high temperatures mainly in the 80s. With less clouds and no rain over the weekend and into the start of next week, look for high temperatures to warm from an upper 80s to low 90s range on Saturday to the lower 90s for a majority of inland locations on Monday. Morning lows in an upper 60s to low 70s range are anticipated for much of this period.

42

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through Wednesday afternoon.
There may still be some patchy fog late tonight into early Wednesday morning impacting some low-lying terminals (CXO, LBX, maybe SGR). But the fog tonight will not be as widespread or dense as last night/this morning. Otherwise just expecting wind shifts through the period with WNW winds this afternoon become more northerly through the evening, then light/variable overnight before eventually becoming SE on Wednesday.

Fowler

MARINE
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Mainly light north to northwest winds and low seas can be expected today.
Winds will come back around to the south and southeast tonight and Wednesday, and this onshore flow will gradually strengthen and persist until another cold front moves off the coast at the end of the week. Caution flags might be needed for the strengthening winds and building seas. Our next chance of rain begins late Wednesday night and continues into the day on Friday. A drier forecast can be expected over the weekend.

42

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers. The next rounds of heavy rain are expected on Thursday/Friday, so be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast information.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 64 89 68 84 / 0 0 20 70 Houston (IAH) 65 90 70 85 / 0 0 20 70 Galveston (GLS) 73 82 75 83 / 0 0 20 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Lynchburg Landing
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Tue -- 01:40 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM CDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:18 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:13 PM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM CDT     Sunset
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Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

San Jacinto Battleground State Historic Site, Texas, Tide feet

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