Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homeland, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:27PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:59 PM EST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:53AMMoonset 11:09PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 244 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Friday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night and Sunday..West northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday and Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth.
Tuesday..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters smooth.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 244 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis.. A warm front will lift north across the region tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the region Friday into Friday evening, with a round of showers and storms expected. Some of these storms could become strong to severe. A secondary front will move through Saturday, as low pressure moves to the north. High pressure will build from the west early next week.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 13, 2018 at 1200 utc... 42 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 44 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 57 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 67 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homeland, GA
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location: 30.95, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 131911
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
211 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Potential for heavy rain and a few severe storms Friday
and Friday night...

Near term thru tonight ...

high pressure will remain centered well NE of forecast area, while
intense storm system develops over the western gulf coast region.

Clouds will continue to stream over forecast area from gulf of
mexico. High-res guidance suggests a few coastal showers that may
affect our easternost counties this afternoon. As lift increases
over forecast area tonight, may see scattered showers develop,
with more numerous showers over western portion of our forecast
area. Guidance suggests low temperatures will be met around 06z
with steady or slowly rising temperatures toward dawn.

Short term Friday thru Saturday ...

storm system will move very slowly eastward Friday through Friday
night, with associated cold occluded front moves approaches forecast
area from the west. Models seem to be in decent agreement that a
semi-organized line of intense convection will develop over the
central gulf of mexico late tonight, tracking gradually eastward
across the eastern gulf of mexico Friday morning, then move inland
over northern fl peninsula into southern ga during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. The airmass will be too stable
for near surface-based convection, thus anticipating the line will
gradually weaken with just some elevated storms. This activity
progresses eastward during the afternoon. Very strong vertical
wind shear will be in place. The big question is the level of
airmass instability to promote intense updrafts. Global models
like the GFS are not suggesting much destabilization due to
widespread precipitation. Higher-resolution models like the nam
and 36-hr hrrr (12z run) suggest widespread precipitation during
the late morning early afternoon will be confined to SRN ga and
the suwannee valley region of NRN fl, and show temperatures
increasing into the lower 70s with upper 60s dew points to support
about 400-800 j kg CAPE across much of NE fl. This may be
sufficient to support strong severe storms with rotation, either
in the form of a squall line with embedded circulations, or semi-
discrete supercells. In fact, the hrrr suggested scattered
supercell storms across NE fl late in the day. The peak period of
the severe weather threat appears to be the 3pm-9pm window
particularly along and SE of a jax gnv line, with more isolated
threat further n.

Also looking at potential for multiple rounds of heavy rain with
this event. The first may be over our far western counties during
the morning, then across forecast area during the afternoon, with
the hrrr suggesting a third potential round Friday night
spreading across NE fl from the eastern gulf of mexico. At this
point, looking at 1-2 inches of rain for eastern half of NE fl,
2-3 inches with local 4-5 inches further N and w. Will maintain
existing flood watch, though the greater threat for flooding
appears to be across SE ga and suwannee valley region due to
previous heavy rain event. High temperatures Friday will be in the
upper 60s across SE ga, lower to mid 70s across NE fl. Cloudy
showery conditions expected later Friday night, with mild min
temperatures in the upper 50s across SE ga, lower 60s across ne
fl.

Activity gradually decreases from W to E on Saturday. Given the
occluded nature of the system, expect considerable cloudiness,
with not much of a cool down. High temperatures Saturday are
expected 68-70 across SE ga, lower 70s across NE fl.

Long term Saturday night thru Wednesday ...

storm system shifts E of oour forecast area Sunday, while cool
high pressure builds toward our area from the w. This will lead
to high temperatures Sunday in the lower to mid 60s, possibly
upper 60s marion county, under partly cloudy skies.

High pressure ridge at the surface and aloft build over forecast
area Tuesday, shifting east of forecast area Wednesday.

Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly below normal
mon-wed.

Aviation Vfr with mainly mid clouds between 5000-10000ft this
afternoon and evening with possibly a sprinkle at ssi. After 06z
tonight, low level winds increase to 35-40 knots above the
surface and have included llws - low level wind shear in the
current TAF set. Expect CIGS to generally remainVFR in this
period with a few sprinkles possible, but main chances for rain
and lower MVFR CIGS vsbys will hold off until the 12-15z time
frame, or possibly later in the morning, but showed some lowering
conds at TAF sites for now. Southerly winds will start to mix down
towards the surface after 15z with 12-14g20 kts possible.

Marine High pressure will move northeast of area waters today
and tonight. A warm front will lift north across the region
tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the region Friday
into Friday evening, with a round of showers and storms expected.

Some of these storms could become strong to severe. Winds will
increase into caution level nearshore, and advisory level offshore
tonight and Friday.

A secondary front will move through Saturday, as low pressure moves
to the north. High pressure will build from the west early next
week.

Rip currents: moderate to high risk Friday.

Hydrology
Flood watch remains in effect for all of SE ga and interior portions
of NE fl for a widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall, with locally
higher amounts, while amounts closer to 1-2 inches expected for
points SE of gnv jax across the rest of NE fl. A localized 4-6
inch rainfall band possible in the flood watch area, but too early
to speculate exactly where this will fall. Widespread minor to
moderate flooding expected for most river basins in the flood
watch area, along with potential major flooding for the alapaha
river basin in echols hamilton counties.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 57 68 58 68 90 100 90 20
ssi 58 67 58 67 60 90 90 30
jax 60 73 61 72 40 90 90 30
sgj 61 73 62 72 40 80 90 40
gnv 61 74 61 72 40 90 90 30
ocf 61 75 62 73 40 80 90 40

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... Flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
alachua-baker-bradford-clay-coastal duval-coastal nassau-
columbia-gilchrist-hamilton-inland duval-inland nassau-
suwannee-union.

Ga... Flood watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
appling-atkinson-bacon-brantley-charlton-clinch-coastal
camden-coastal glynn-coffee-echols-inland camden-inland
glynn-jeff davis-pierce-ware-wayne.

Am... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Saturday for waters from altamaha sound ga to fernandina
beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from fernandina beach to
st. Augustine fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from st. Augustine
to flagler beach fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Wolf hess


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 30 mi60 min NNE 1.9 G 6 63°F 58°F1021.5 hPa (-1.2)
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 36 mi60 min 57°F2 ft
DMSF1 43 mi60 min 60°F
BLIF1 43 mi60 min ENE 4.1 G 6 64°F 1021.4 hPa (-1.2)64°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 46 mi120 min NNE 6 62°F 1021 hPa (-2.0)54°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 46 mi60 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 63°F 59°F1020.7 hPa (-1.0)
LTJF1 46 mi60 min 63°F 58°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 63 mi70 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 59°F2 ft1021.7 hPa (-1.2)59°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA31 mi65 minNE 1010.00 miOvercast63°F51°F68%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE8E6E6E8NE9NE6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmW3CalmW3W4W4W3W3W4W3NW5W4W6NW9N8NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Burnt Fort, Satilla River, Georgia
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Burnt Fort
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Thu -- 04:09 AM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:03 AM EST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 PM EST     3.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:09 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:55 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.322.62.92.82.521.510.70.60.81.42.12.73.13.232.521.410.7

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3)
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St. Johns River Entrance
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Thu -- 02:36 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:52 AM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:02 PM EST     1.97 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:07 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:08 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.6-0.4-1.2-1.5-1.2-0.8-0.4-00.61.521.710.1-1-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.5-0.10.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.