Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buchanan Lake Village, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 2:14 PM CDT (19:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:42AMMoonset 8:49PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buchanan Lake Village, TX
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location: 30.96, -98.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 291752
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin/san antonio tx
1252 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017

Aviation
Clear skies prevail across the region as drier air has moved into the
area behind the overnight convection. Winds will be breezy today,
from a west/northwest direction with speeds in the 12-20 knot range
with higher gusts possible for kdrt. Wind speeds will weaken a bit
overnight, but should increase slightly in the afternoon.VFR
conditions will continue to prevail with some high clouds passing
overhead by tomorrow.

Prev discussion /issued 1022 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017/
update...

the line of showers and thunderstorms has exited the region, with a
weak frontal boundary slowly pushing east of interstate 35 behind it.

Subsidence inversions evident on aircraft soundings at Sat and aus
coupled with dry air and negative vorticity advection at midlevels
behind the line of storms should prevent any convection from
occurring this afternoon along this slow moving front. Therefore, we
have removed all mention of pops for the rest of today. Patchy fog
has held on a bit longer than expected this morning over parts of the
hill country and bexar county, but this should continue to lift as
w-nw winds mix down to the surface.

Dry westerly winds with the assistance of some downsloping effects
should still help highs warm up into the lower 80s in the hill
country, mid 80s in the i-35 corridor, and upper 80s in the rio
grande plains. However, we have lowered high temperatures a few
degrees based on model trends, which is likely picking up on some
more saturated soils with the rainfall that fell overnight. The one
area where forecast highs have not really decreased today is over
dimmit and southern maverick and zavala counties which received
little or no rainfall. These areas may still warm up into the lower
90s today to allow for relative humidity values to drop into the
teens. Fortunately, winds over these counties should remain below
10-15 mph to keep fire weather concerns more in the elevated category.

Winds further north over val verde county and parts of the edwards
plateau are still expected to increase to around 20 mph with gusts to
30-35 mph with min rh values in the teens and 20s, but last night's
wetting rains of at least half an inch in most spots should keep
fire weather concerns more in the elevated to near critical category.

Prev discussion... /issued 626 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017/
update...

12z aviation update below.

Aviation...

a line of tstms will continue to exit the region this morning and
not impact the TAF sites. Some patchy fog and low ceilings are
possible through 13-14z at sat/ssf/aus resulting in MVFR to ifr
conditions. OtherwiseVFR conditions through the day and tonight.

W winds developing by afternoon around 10 kts at sat/aus, but
stronger at drt with some gusts 20-25 kts. A secondary cold front
this evening will result in a wind shift to the nw.

Prev discussion... /issued 355 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017/
short term (today through Thursday)...

as of 3 am, radar loops showing the southern portion of the squall
line to be losing its near severe and mostly elevated velocity
signatures, but will leave up the watch along the front edge over
i-35 for another hour. Following the trends of the hrrr/rap, will
show a more progressive clearing trend for the morning pops and plan
on using conservative hwo wording regarding the late morning strong
storm potential over southeast counties.

Continuing the trend on temperatures, earlier clearing should
translate to warmer than blended guidance MAX temps for today. Good
midday packing of isobars over the edwards plateau should enhance
mixing and drop rh values in the low teens along the rio grande,
while picking surface winds to around 20 mph with gust over 35 mph nw
of drt. Radar precip estimates suggest all of val verde county had
receive over 0.2 inches of rain with the drier 10-hour fuel moisture
areas around drt having a little more. Thus will expect this moisture
to offset the critical fire weather conditions forecast for western
val verde county and settle on a near critical wording. Farther east
and south, winds and especially gusts should drop off to lower
values. NW boundary layer to 850 mb winds at 20 to 35 mph should
enhance cooling and drying across the region, leaving a seasonal
morning low in the upper 40s north to mid 50s southeast. Westerly
transport winds resuming for Wednesday will be much lighter but
should still bring afternoon temps back to above normals.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)...

light winds should continue Thursday night, and there may enough
ground moisture for some patchy ground fog given the rains. Will keep
with the model data and leave out for now. Returning south winds
Friday will accelerate late in the day as another large upper low
drops southeast across the great basin towards tx. Initially, the
mid levels of the atmosphere will be very dry, so there should still
be abundant sunshine and warm temps for Friday. Continued deepening
of the low level moist layer and closer approach of the upper low
will likely bring a mostly cloudy and not as warm day Saturday, with
a dryline feature suggested to set up over central tx in the afternoon
by deterministic models. As suggested in the SPC extended outlooks,
instability and wind shear would likely be sufficient for a few
severe storms. Continued sewd digging of the upper low is then
expected to bring additional rounds of storms from the SW Saturday
night with rain still likely over the eastern two-thirds of the area
Sunday. The repeated rounds of rain could mean some locally heavy
downpours over 2 inches will be possible this weekend. Gfs/ecm
solutions show good agreement on the northeastward ejection of the
upper low Sunday evening with mostly stable and warm weather to
follow for early next week.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Austin camp mabry 85 54 81 56 87 / 10 - 0 0 0
austin bergstrom intl airport 84 54 80 50 87 / 10 - 0 0 0
new braunfels muni airport 84 53 81 53 87 / - - 0 0 0
burnet muni airport 82 51 77 54 85 / - - 0 0 0
del rio intl airport 86 53 83 57 93 / - 0 0 0 0
georgetown muni airport 84 53 79 53 85 / 10 - 0 0 0
hondo muni airport 86 52 83 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
san marcos muni airport 85 53 80 53 87 / 10 - 0 0 0
la grange - fayette regional 84 56 78 54 86 / 50 10 0 0 0
san antonio intl airport 87 54 82 55 88 / - - 0 0 0
stinson muni airport 86 54 81 55 89 / - - 0 0 0

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Mesoscale/aviation... Hampshire
synoptic/grids... Lh
public service/data collection... Yb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Llano, Llano Municipal Airport, TX16 mi84 minW 410.00 miFair73°F46°F38%1010.8 hPa
Lampasas, Lampasas Airport, TX18 mi79 minW 12 G 1610.00 miFair76°F49°F40%1009.1 hPa
Burnet, Burnet Municipal Craddock Field, TX20 mi81 minW 10 G 1610.00 miFair73°F46°F40%1008.6 hPa

Wind History from AQO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11
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NW9CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W4
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmSE8SE6CalmCalmCalmE3SE3SE6SE5SE5SE4SE6SE4CalmSE3SE10S8SE8
G16
2 days agoS13
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S9S10S7S9
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CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5N3CalmCalmN7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.