Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Palms, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:12PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:12 PM EDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:53AMMoonset 9:49PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Palms, SC
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location: 30.97, -77.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 252349
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
749 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
Hurricane maria will track northward off the southeast u.S.

Coast through midweek before turning east-northeast and away
from the coast into late week. A cold front will move through
the area early this weekend, followed by high pressure into
early next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 745 pm: IR satellite and sfc observations indicated a
wide area of stratus across eastern nc and portions of the pee
dee valley. Models indicate that the low clouds should drift
southward with the large circulation around hurricane maria. I
will update the forecast to adjust cloud timing and placement.

Tonight: the forecast remains quiet as the region sits between
the circulation of maria to the east and a weak upper low trough
along the central gulf coast. In this region, an extension of
the ridge that is centered north of maria will be the primary
feature aloft through the night. The main story will be plenty
of dry air in the mid levels resulting in a notable trough of
lower precipitable water values. As a result, the forecast is
dry. We will continue to see high clouds from maria's outflow
stream overhead in the southeasterly flow, while patches of mid
level clouds rotate through around the circulation. The first
half of the overnight period will bring mostly clear skies,
before increasing chances for stratus develop takes over closer
to sunrise. Stratus will primarily be a concern for southeast
south carolina, especially the tri-county region. Forecast lows
are in the mid-upper 60s inland and low 70s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
Dry weather conditions are expected midweek as high pressure
builds across the region from the north northwest while
hurricane maria shifts northward off the southeast and mid
atlantic coast. The main issue will be a notable warming trend
as a downsloping wind develops across the region Wednesday into
Thursday ahead of a cold front advancing over the central united
states and toward the southeast united states. Timing of the
front will play a role in how warm temps peak over the area
Thursday. However, guidance suggests a northwest flow under
mostly sunny skies will support temps warming from the mid upper
80s Tuesday afternoon to the low mid 90s by Thursday afternoon,
warmest inland. Overnight lows will range in the upper 60s
inland to low mid 70s closer to the coast each night.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Chances for showers thunderstorms will begin increasing late
Thursday into the weekend due to an approaching cold front.

Guidance continues to suggest that the front will complete
passage through the forecast area likely by late Friday or early
Saturday. Cooler high pressure will then begin filling in
behind the front, with early guidance suggesting a high pressure
wedge-type pattern could set up near or over the area Saturday
into Sunday.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
This evening, IR satellite and sfc observations indicated a wide
area of stratus across eastern nc and portions of the pee dee
valley. Models indicate that the low clouds should drift
southward with the large circulation around hurricane maria. It
is expected that MVFR and possibly ifr ceilings will reach kchs
by 10z. The lowest cloud bases should occur between 11z-15z
Tuesday morning.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions are expected at both
chs and sav terminals through late week. However, brief periods
of flight restrictions are possible Wednesday morning and
Thursday morning due to fog.

Marine
Tonight: the local waters will remain on the western periphery
of the circulation of maria which is centered well offshore. The
pressure gradient will be tightest across the south carolina
waters, especially off eastern charleston county where winds
will remain in the 15-20 knot range most of the night.

Elsewhere, 10-15 knots is more likely. Winds will be out of the
north for most of the night, become more north-northwest late.

Seas will remain elevated, 4-7 feet across the nearshore waters
and 6-9 feet in the outer waters.

Tuesday through Friday: small craft advisories will be ongoing
for all coastal waters outside the chs harbor due to high seas
and long- period swell associated with hurricane maria passing
well offshore. Seas could peak as high as 7-9 ft in offshore
georgia waters and 5-8 ft in nearshore waters, largest in
northern south carolina waters. A somewhat enhanced gradient
between high pressure building from the north inland and
hurricane maria passing to the north offshore will support
northerly winds gradually backing to northwest on Tuesday while
slowly diminishing to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts near 20 kt.

Latest guidance suggests seas will continue to support small
craft advisory criteria for northern south carolina waters into
early Wednesday and offshore georgia waters through Wednesday
afternoon or evening, but relatively benign sea conditions are
anticipated Thursday into Friday as winds peak between 5-10
knots and seas remain no higher than 2-4 ft. A cold front
followed by strong high pressure to the north will lead to an
enhanced onshore gradient Saturday, which could lead to a round
of winds seas supporting another period of small craft
advisories.

Rip currents: with large and powerful long period swells from
hurricane maria to occur, a high risk for life-threatening rip
currents will persist this evening. No one should enter the surf
due to these extremely dangerous conditions. Conditions will
gradually improve Tuesday, but an elevated risk or rip currents
will persist through at least mid week due to continued long
period swells associated with maria passing offshore. A moderate
risk of rip currents is currently forecast for all beaches on
Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Powerful east-southeast swells originating from hurricane maria
passing well offshore along with northeast sfc flow near the
southeast coast could allow conditions to approach coastal flood
advisory levels with the early afternoon high tide cycle
Tuesday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... High risk for rip currents until 8 pm edt this evening for gaz117-
119-139-141.

Sc... High risk for rip currents until 8 pm edt this evening for
scz048>051.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Tuesday for amz352.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for amz354.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Wednesday for amz374.

Near term... Ned
short term... Dpb
long term... Jmc
aviation... Ned
marine... Bsh dpb
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC171 mi18 minNNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F71°F79%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5N4N4NW4N5N5N7N7N8N9NW8NE76NW7N6N5N8N6N6
1 day agoNE4CalmCalmNE3CalmNW3N4N4N6N5N4N4N5N7N8
G13
NE8
G13
N8NE9NE8E11NE5E5E9NE5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N4N6N6N4N7N6NE6
G11
NE8E11E12E9E9
G16
E9E9E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.