Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Palms, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:32PM Monday June 26, 2017 6:19 PM EDT (22:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Palms, SC
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location: 30.97, -77.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 261944
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
344 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly push through the area tonight and then linger
off the coast Tuesday. A disturbance aloft will pass through
Tuesday evening, followed by high pressure Wednesday. The high
will shift into the atlantic by Thursday and extend across the
local area into next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A cold front across the area will slowly push offshore as a weak
wave or two of low pressure travel northeast along it. The
deepest moisture and best convergence near the front will be
across far southeast sc near the coast and eastern portions of
southeast ga and this is where we expect some showers and a few
thunderstorms. The best chances will be through early evening
before shifting offshore closer to the higher instability. Can't
rule out localized flooding and or damaging winds, mainly
through the rest of the afternoon. Could see some fog develop
overnight as winds subside but much will depend on the position
of the front and amount of cloud cover. Lows should range from
about 65-70 inland to lower to mid 70s at the coast.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
We'll get a short respite from typical summertime heat and humidity
through mid week, before it slowly starts to make a return Thursday.

Shower and t-storm chances are also below average during this time,
no greater than isolated or maybe scattered coverage to occur.

For Tuesday the cold front will meander off the SE coast, with an
upstream moving through the midwest states. We're in a rather
nebulous surface pattern between the two features, with a broad
large scale trough situated aloft over the eastern half of the
nation. The main initiator for any convection will be the sea breeze
and a differential heating boundary near the altamaha river due to
the proximity of the cold front and the southern extension of a
somewhat drier air mass. As such we look for 20-30% pop's,
highest south of i-16 where the best moisture exists. I leaned
toward the MOS guidance rather than the slightly warmer low
level thickness forecast, since that is more in line with 850 mb
temps that are below average for late june. Thermodynamics are
unimpressive, but given quite a bit of dry air with the
resulting dcape's in excess of 800-1000 j kg, plus 0-6 km bulk
shear of 20-25 kt may support an isolated severe risk.

A short wave trough will slide through from the NW around 02-06z
Wednesday, and with the lack of deep moisture it shouldn't produce
anything more than isolated showers and t-storms the first half of
the night. This is followed by the southern portion of the canadian
air mass, that allows for lows to get down to the mid and upper 60s
inland from us-17, lower 70s on the barrier islands and in
downtown charleston.

Wednesday through Thursday: the broad trough in the east lifts out
and gives way to building heights aloft from a building sub-tropical
ridge centered near the NW bahamas Wednesday that becomes positioned
about midway between florida and bermuda on Thursday. Moisture is
definitely in limited supply Wednesday, with pwat's as much as 2-3
standard deviations below normal under high pressure covering a good
chunk of the eastern u.S. As the high moves into the atlantic for
Thursday, return flow brings with it more common pwat's for
this time of year. The sea breeze is the main driver of any
diurnal convection during this time, and this supports at most
isolated coverage across interior SE ga Wednesday. With better
moisture Thursday we are forecasting 20-30% chances, mainly over
se ga and for the sc counties near the savannah river. Below
normal temps will prevail, and comfortable levels of humidity
Wednesday become more typical Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Nearly zonal flow will persist aloft with surface high pressure in
the atlantic. Southerly flow around the high will advect moisture
into the southeast as an inland trough develops into the weekend.

The result will be the typical summertime shower thunderstorm
pattern with the coverage and intensity appearing to increase each
day into the weekend.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
GenerallyVFR, although there is a low risk of restrictions from
low clouds showers thunderstorms at ksav this afternoon and fog
and or low clouds at kchs ksav late tonight.

Extended aviation outlook: mainlyVFR through Thursday. Maybe brief
flight restrictions in afternoon shra tsra Friday and Saturday.

Marine
Tonight: a cold front will linger near the coast as a weak wave
of low pressure or two will move northeast along it. Mainly
east northeast winds will back to north northeast, remaining
about 10 kt or less (after peaking about 15 kt at times this
afternoon). 2-3 ft seas will subside a bit overnight.

Tuesday through Saturday: a weak pressure pattern Tuesday gives
way to the counter- clockwise flow around high pressure later
Tuesday night through the end of the week. Sea breeze
circulations will give a boost to winds each day, but on
average, speeds will remain at or below 12-18 kt and seas no
greater than 2-4 ft.

Tides coastal flooding
Tides could once again approach shallow coastal flooding
thresholds in the charleston harbor with the late evening high
tide cycle. Tide levels at fort pulaski look to peak just shy of
shallow coastal flooding levels. A coastal flood advisory may be
needed for parts of the lower south carolina coast, especially
for charleston county.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rjb
short term... 33
long term...

aviation... 33 rjb
marine... 33 rjb
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC171 mi24 minENE 710.00 miFair82°F69°F66%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6N6NE6NE11NE10
G16
NE12NE11NE9NE9
G14
E8
1 day agoS13S12S9
G16
S6SW5SW6SW7S5SW11
G19
SW8SW6S7NW8NW4W7NW6N3CalmSE5S5S8
G14
S9SW4N9
2 days agoS15
G20
S13
G18
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S12S13SW10
G16
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SW12
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SW11SW6SW6SW11--SW6
G13
SW10SW8
G14
S11
G17
S11
G16
S12
G17
S12
G17
S10
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.