Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isle of Palms, SC
May 4, 2024 11:22 AM EDT (15:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM Moonset 3:15 PM |
AMZ063 Atlantic From 29n To 31n W Of 77w- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 12 ft.
Tonight - SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
Wed - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Wed night - SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers.
Thu - SW to W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night - N winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Fri - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Sat - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 041446 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1046 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S.
through much of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Convoluted pattern across the region this morning with a short- wave circulation moving northeastward into north-central Georgia and weak low-mid level troughing aligned through eastern Georgia into upstate South Carolina. Forcing with the wave aligned with lower level convergence has/is producing a solid narrow corridor of slow moving showers and thunderstorms in eastern Georgia into the Midlands...just edging into the far western part of the CWA Convection does appear to be weakening as we transition into the daytime heating cycle.
Meanwhile, showers (no lightning thus far) are expanding off the Atlantic into the South Carolina counties readily this morning, particularly the tri-county area. No surprise given the morning CHS sounding showing a moist low level air mass and nearly 500 J/Kg MLCAPE already in place, with minimal CINH.
Short-wave trough will slowly pass through the region through the afternoon. Aforementioned corridor of showers/thunder just upstream will probably thin out to some degree over the next few hours. However, heating will generate 750-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE this afternoon and possibly a bit better along the inland advancing sea breeze...and minimal CINH. Additional showers and some thunderstorms are likely as we go through the afternoon with higher pops trending inland with the sea breeze push. Severe storms are unlikely. But given weak wind profiles and resultant slow moving convection, we will need to keep an eye on rainfall rates and amounts.
Thunderstorm activity should gradually decrease this evening as the sea breeze pushes inland and temperatures begin to cool around sunset. The sfc pattern is expected to support light SSE winds through tonight. The light SSE winds combined with mostly cloudy sky conditions should keep temperatures in the upper 60s along the coast with mid 60s inland. The mid-level trough is forecast to swing east over the CWA late tonight. Guidance indicates that a band of moisture convergence will develop from the Gulf Stream northwest across the South Santee basin late tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be featured in the forecast for late tonight over the SC waters and portions of Charleston and Berkeley Counties late tonight.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A mid-level ridge will sit off the Southeast coast as passing waves of shortwave energy ripple across the region through the short term forecast period. High pressure will remain the primary feature at the surface. Convection will be a bit active Sunday and Monday with the presence of a weak shortwave aloft and deeper moisture - noted by PWATs around 1.5-1.7 inches. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be highest in the daytime when instability is maximized, but activity could linger into the late evening with some upper forcing present. The greatest POPs are focused in southeast South Carolina and away from the immediate coast each day owing to the juxtaposition of upper forcing and the inland moving sea breeze.
Chances for showers/thunderstorms will be slightly less Tuesday as the deeper moisture and remnant shortwave energy moves off the Mid Atlantic coast.
High temperatures will generally peak in the low to mid 80s Sunday, warming into the mid 80s Monday, then into the upper 80s Tuesday.
Min temperatures both Sunday and Monday are only expected to drop to the mid/upper 60s, with locations along the beaches and Downtown Charleston in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Atlantic high pressure will persist through the majority of next week before a cold front approaches late next week. Rainfall chances are little to none as a ridge rebuilds overhead. This will cause temperatures to rise into the low/mid 90s through the remainder of next week, approaching record levels Wednesday and again Thursday.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Sunday. A few showers may pass near the KCHS and KJZI terminals this morning. This afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity should mostly stay to the west of the terminals along a sea breeze. Winds should favor a south- southeast direction during the daylight hours, becoming light and variable late tonight.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible within isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms through Tuesday.
MARINE
The surface pattern will yield south-southeast winds between 5-10 kts today and tonight. Wave heights are forecast to favor values around 2 ft, with 3 ft seas possible beyond 40 nm late tonight.
Sunday through Thursday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain relatively benign conditions over the local marine waters. Southerly winds in the morning will back slightly during the afternoon and evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1046 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S.
through much of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Convoluted pattern across the region this morning with a short- wave circulation moving northeastward into north-central Georgia and weak low-mid level troughing aligned through eastern Georgia into upstate South Carolina. Forcing with the wave aligned with lower level convergence has/is producing a solid narrow corridor of slow moving showers and thunderstorms in eastern Georgia into the Midlands...just edging into the far western part of the CWA Convection does appear to be weakening as we transition into the daytime heating cycle.
Meanwhile, showers (no lightning thus far) are expanding off the Atlantic into the South Carolina counties readily this morning, particularly the tri-county area. No surprise given the morning CHS sounding showing a moist low level air mass and nearly 500 J/Kg MLCAPE already in place, with minimal CINH.
Short-wave trough will slowly pass through the region through the afternoon. Aforementioned corridor of showers/thunder just upstream will probably thin out to some degree over the next few hours. However, heating will generate 750-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE this afternoon and possibly a bit better along the inland advancing sea breeze...and minimal CINH. Additional showers and some thunderstorms are likely as we go through the afternoon with higher pops trending inland with the sea breeze push. Severe storms are unlikely. But given weak wind profiles and resultant slow moving convection, we will need to keep an eye on rainfall rates and amounts.
Thunderstorm activity should gradually decrease this evening as the sea breeze pushes inland and temperatures begin to cool around sunset. The sfc pattern is expected to support light SSE winds through tonight. The light SSE winds combined with mostly cloudy sky conditions should keep temperatures in the upper 60s along the coast with mid 60s inland. The mid-level trough is forecast to swing east over the CWA late tonight. Guidance indicates that a band of moisture convergence will develop from the Gulf Stream northwest across the South Santee basin late tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be featured in the forecast for late tonight over the SC waters and portions of Charleston and Berkeley Counties late tonight.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A mid-level ridge will sit off the Southeast coast as passing waves of shortwave energy ripple across the region through the short term forecast period. High pressure will remain the primary feature at the surface. Convection will be a bit active Sunday and Monday with the presence of a weak shortwave aloft and deeper moisture - noted by PWATs around 1.5-1.7 inches. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be highest in the daytime when instability is maximized, but activity could linger into the late evening with some upper forcing present. The greatest POPs are focused in southeast South Carolina and away from the immediate coast each day owing to the juxtaposition of upper forcing and the inland moving sea breeze.
Chances for showers/thunderstorms will be slightly less Tuesday as the deeper moisture and remnant shortwave energy moves off the Mid Atlantic coast.
High temperatures will generally peak in the low to mid 80s Sunday, warming into the mid 80s Monday, then into the upper 80s Tuesday.
Min temperatures both Sunday and Monday are only expected to drop to the mid/upper 60s, with locations along the beaches and Downtown Charleston in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Atlantic high pressure will persist through the majority of next week before a cold front approaches late next week. Rainfall chances are little to none as a ridge rebuilds overhead. This will cause temperatures to rise into the low/mid 90s through the remainder of next week, approaching record levels Wednesday and again Thursday.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Sunday. A few showers may pass near the KCHS and KJZI terminals this morning. This afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity should mostly stay to the west of the terminals along a sea breeze. Winds should favor a south- southeast direction during the daylight hours, becoming light and variable late tonight.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible within isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms through Tuesday.
MARINE
The surface pattern will yield south-southeast winds between 5-10 kts today and tonight. Wave heights are forecast to favor values around 2 ft, with 3 ft seas possible beyond 40 nm late tonight.
Sunday through Thursday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain relatively benign conditions over the local marine waters. Southerly winds in the morning will back slightly during the afternoon and evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
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