Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Palms, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:18PM Friday May 24, 2019 8:53 AM EDT (12:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:08AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Palms, SC
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location: 30.97, -77.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 241006
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
606 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Early season heat wave will impact the region through next
week...

All time record highs for may will be challenged...

Synopsis
Unseasonably hot high pressure will dominate into late next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The rap and h3r have trended about an hour slower with the
progression of the pinned sea breeze this afternoon. They both
have also increased highs by another degree with a sliver of
highs 99-100 from roughly metter and reidsville east to near
springfield. Did not make any changes to the high temperature
forecast with the sunrise update, but if a slight increase in
highs may need to be introduced later this morning if short term
models continue to trend in this direction.

Today will be the first in a prolonged series of unseasonably
hot days for southeast south carolina and southeast georgia.

Deep layered high pressure will remain anchored across the
southeast u.S. Today with the local forecast area positioned
along the eastern flanks of the mid-upper level anticyclone
centered over west-central georgia. The combination of a
downslope northwest flow aloft and rising h8 temperature to near
19c will promote an unseasonably hot day with little cloud
cover. Noted the latest naefs 1000 hpa temperatures are forecast
to be ~2-2.5 standard deviations above average for late may.

The synoptic pattern favors a pinned sea breeze scenario with
the circulation likely not making any inland progress until late
afternoon. This typically allows hot temperatures to reach all
the way to the intracoastal waterway. The various statistical
guidance packages typically under forecast high temperatures in
downslope flow regimes, especially in drought conditions, and
this was taken into account when constructing today's high
temperature forecast. Opted to nudge highs closer to the rap h3r
consensus which is about 2-3 degrees warmer yesterday's
afternoon forecast cycle. This places highs ranging from the
upper 90s inland to as far east as the highway 17 corridor in
southeast south carolina and i-95 in southeast georgia to the
upper 80s near 90 at the beaches. Even downtown charleston could
reach 95-97 degrees with west winds before cooling off the
passage of the sea breeze. There are signals that a few spots
in interior southeast georgia could reach 100 degrees, especially
in the metter-claxton-reidsville corridor. Dewpoints are
expected to mix out into the lower-mid 60s away from the coast,
but will pool back into the lower 70s across parts of the
coastal counties in the vicinity of the late afternoon sea
breeze. The resulting heat indices should peak roughly in the
100-103 range for most locations which is below the usual pre-
july 1 heat advisory criteria of 105.

There is concern that lingering regional impacts from hurricanes
michael and florence on power systems coupled with unseasonably
early hot temperatures during the memorial day weekend could
enhance the risk for excessive heat impacts. Since this is the
first day of what will likely become a prolonged heat event, an
impact-based heat advisory will not be issued for today per
coordination with the neighboring NWS weather forecast offices
(wfos). A special weather statement will be issued to address
today's heat instead. The need for impact-based heat advisories
will be coordinated over the coming days on a case-by-case
basis.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Tonight: modest radiational cooling is expected as the boundary
layer is poised to decouple quickly after sunset. A weak
backdoor cold front will approach the santee river by daybreak
Saturday. Dry weather will continue under mainly clear skies.

Lows will range from the upper 60s lower 70s inland to the
upper 70s at the beaches and downtown charleston.

Saturday through Monday: the mid-levels will consist of strong
high pressure hovering over the southeast Saturday and Sunday,
with the high drifting southwards into the northern gulf of
mexico on Monday. Heights over our area will slowly drop through
the short term. However, this won't be very noticeable because
the high is unseasonably strong. Naefs shows 500 mb heights
peaking at about 3 standard deviations above normal. It also
shows above normal temperatures at almost all levels of the
atmosphere. At the surface, a weakening front will pass just
north and then offshore of our area on Saturday. Otherwise,
areas of high pressure will stretch from the western atlantic
into the southeast states. The only risk of "convection" could
be across the charleston tri- county area Saturday afternoon.

But this will be a big hurdle to jump over given all of the dry
air in place across the area as shown by model soundings. Hence,
we have slight chance pops in these locations and it's possible
this may be overdone. Otherwise, the main moisture will be fair
weather clouds each afternoon. Temperatures are forecasted to
approach or exceed record values throughout the short term. For
the high temperatures, we went with a blend of models, thickness
values, and accounted for the sea breeze (if any). Saturday
will be the "coolest" day with temperatures ranging from the
mid upper 90s for most locations and maybe a few century marks
near the altamaha river. Sunday, expect widespread upper 90s to
lower 100s. Monday may be the hottest day of the bunch because
the sea breeze may remain pinned to the coast. If so, most
locations away from the immediate coast could reach at least 100
degrees for highs. Lows each night will cool down into the 70s.

Heat indices are forecasted to be above 100 degrees each day.

Heat advisories could be needed, especially Sunday and Monday.

Users who are curious about the records can look at the short
climate section below.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
The mid-level ridge will remain in place while surface high pressure
persists. Temperatures may trend downward a few degrees each day.

However, they are still forecasted to remain well above normal
throughout the long term. Additionally, no rainfall is in the
forecast. Heat advisories, poor air quality, and dry fuels that
could increase the risk of wildfires are all concerns. But the
details will need to be better defined as this time period gets
closer.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR.

Marine
Today: west winds will back during the day as sea breeze
circulation develops along the beaches. Winds will increase in
the afternoon as an intense thermal gradient develops between
the ocean and inland locations. Winds are expected to peak 10-15
kt for most locations with 15 kt or 15-20 kt for the charleston
county waters. Seas will average 1-3 ft.

Tonight: southwest winds will slowly veer to the west after
midnight as a backdoor cold front approaches from the north.

Winds will remain 15 kt or less with seas 1-3 ft.

Saturday through Tuesday: atlantic high pressure will prevail.

The sea breeze should develop along the coast each afternoon,
bringing periods of gusty winds. However, no advisories are
expected. Winds are then forecasted to ease somewhat each
evening. Waves will generally peak in the 3-4 ft range.

Climate
A significant, prolonged heat wave will challenge or break many
of these records:
all time record highs for may:
kchs: 99 set may 21, 1938.

Ksav: 101 set may 30, 1898 and may 31, 1945.

Kcxm: 99 set may 21, 1938 and may 26, 1953.

Records for Fri 05 24...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1953
ksav 98 2011, 1953
kcxm 98 1953
records for Sat 05 25...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 2000, 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1953
ksav 76 1878
kcxm 79 1998
records for Sun 05 26...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1953
ksav 100 1953
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1998
kcxm 79 1998
records for Mon 05 27...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 98 1989
ksav 98 1989, 1962
kcxm 95 1962, 1926
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 1991
ksav 77 1878
kcxm 78 1991
records for Tue 05 28...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 97 1967, 1964
ksav 96 1964, 1898
kcxm 93 2000
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2000
ksav 76 1885
kcxm 80 2000
records for Wed 05 29...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 1945
ksav 98 1945, 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 76 2018
ksav 75 1885
kcxm 77 1998
records for Thu 05 30...

station record high year(s)
------- ----------- -------
kchs 95 2004
ksav 101 1898
station record high min year(s)
------- --------------- -------
kchs 75 1982
ksav 75 1924
kcxm 78 1998

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC171 mi59 minW 59.00 miFair75°F71°F89%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm45E7SE7SE7
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S7S7SE76S8S8S7S8S6S6SW5
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1 day agoS5S5SE66SE6E8E13E9
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2 days agoW9SW6W7S7S10S11S10S11S9S8S9S3S4S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.