Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Minette, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:18PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 6:56 PM CDT (23:56 UTC) Moonrise 5:44AMMoonset 5:59PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 302 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. A light chop.
Friday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop.
Friday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A light chop becoming a moderate chop.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. A light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 302 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east wind flow will persist through the remainder of the week as a strong surface ridge centered over the mid atlantic region influences the surface flow in the north central gulf of mexico. There's an increased chance of Thunderstorms late this weekend as winds will become more southeasterly. These winds could generate waves in the 4-6 foot range.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Minette, AL
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location: 30.98, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 182322 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
622 pm cdt Wed oct 18 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
00z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. Light northeast winds will generally range between 4-8
knots. 22

Prev discussion issued 401 pm cdt Wed oct 18 2017
near term now through Thursday ... A relatively dry airmass
associated with a light to occasionally moderate northeast to
easterly surface wind flow will continue tonight and Thursday, as
surface high pressure continues to ridge into the forecast area from
the north and east. Aloft, a developing ridge over texas and the
western gulf of mexico this morning will drift east, with the axis
of the ridge essentially north-south across our forecast area by the
end of the day Thursday. While surface dewpoints will be increasing
slightly through the period, the pattern mentioned above will
maintain an even drier mid level airmass through Thursday. Clear to
mostly clear skies expected through the period with no rain, but
with the slightly increased dewpoints and light wind-clear sky
radiational cooling tonight, could see some patchy light fog (vsby 3-
5 miles), especially interior locations. Lows tonight generally
around the mid 40s over most inland locations, ranging to the mid
and upper 50s closer to the coast, with a few lower 60s at a few
immediate coastal locations (mainly barrier islands). MAX temps a
little warmer on Thursday, reaching upper 70s to near 80 over far
over far northern interior locations, and lower 80s for most
areas closer to the coast. 12 ds
short term Thursday night through Saturday night ... Shortwave
energy moving through an upper trough over the western conus
pushes an upper high centered over the northern gulf coast and its
associated upper ridge to the east. By Sunday morning, it ends up
over the east coast, with a digging upper trough moving east over
the plains. This shifting of the upper high ridge pushes a
surface high (and its surface ridge stretching southwest over the
southeast) over the mid atlantic region east, off the east coast.

This shifting the the surface ridge shifts the low level flow from
a general northeasterly to easterly by Saturday morning, the
southeasterly by Sunday morning, bringing back gulf moisture.

For the forecast, the short term portion starts with around
seasonal lows Thursday night, with an upward moderate of
overnight lows as the flow becomes more southeasterly (and
bringing in warmer moister gulf air). By Saturday night, overnight
lows have warmed from general 50s Thursday night (low 60s along
the coast) to general 60s Sunday morn. Highs through the period
remain above seasonal, even with decreasing subsidence, generally
topping out in the low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday. Some
shortwave energy passing northwest of the forecast area Saturday
into Saturday night brings a return of rain to the area. With the
energy passing to the northwest, best chance of rain will be over
northwestern portions of the forecast area.

16
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... Sunday into Tuesday,
guidance in general is in pretty good agreement, forecast wise.

Shortwave energy in the plains upper trough swings a bit south
before swinging east, organizing into a close upper low over the
lower mississippi river valley. There are differences in speed and
path, with the GFS digging the low a bit farther south and east
by Monday evening. Both form a surface low over the louisiana
coast Sunday night, then takes it northeast, with the low
crossing the forecast area Monday and post system cooler air
moving over the forecast area Monday night. Am concerned things
could get a bit rough as early as Sunday evening, with decent
instability moisture return ahead of the system and upper level
dynamics with the system passage. Am hesitant to say it will occur
for us, with inconsistency in path and timing in previous runs.

Just will have to keep an eye on things at this point. Best chance
of rain is Sunday night night Monday, with drier air moving over
the area by Monday night. Temps above seasonal expected Sunday
through Monday night, with the cooler air just pushing lows Monday
night closer to seasonal.

Tuesday through Wednesday is where the biggest cool-off is
expected to occur, a second strong shortwave dives into the mean
upper trough set up by the first system. This system is expected
to push significantly cooler air south across the area into the
middle of the coming week. Like upper 60s to low 70s for highs on
Wednesday. Ensemble guidance are hinting a bit warm solution, but
feel it is safe to say below seasonal temps return the end of this
package.

16
marine... A moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east wind
flow will persist through the remainder of the week as a strong
surface ridge centered over the mid atlantic region influences the
surface flow in the north central gulf of mexico. There's an
increased chance of thunderstorms late this weekend as winds will
become more southeasterly. These winds could generate waves in the 4-
6 foot range. 17 dj

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 21 mi39 min 73°F 79°F1021.3 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 22 mi27 min NE 1 71°F 1021.7 hPa
PTOA1 23 mi39 min 71°F 55°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 25 mi39 min NE 6 G 8 73°F 74°F1021.4 hPa
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 38 mi57 min NE 12 74°F 1020.7 hPa (-0.7)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi72 min 72°F 1021 hPa54°F
WBYA1 39 mi39 min 74°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 49 mi57 min NNE 6 73°F 1021 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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N6
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NE3
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N12
G16
N9
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N8
G13
N9
G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL26 mi64 minNNE 910.00 miFair74°F55°F54%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from BFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11N7NE11NE12NE12E13E14E12NE12NE11N5NE10
G18
NE9NE7NE8NE86NE75NE5NE5NE5NE6NE9
1 day agoN7N8N10N10N11
G21
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G20
N12N10N11N11N11
G16
N7N10N10NE11
G19
NE11NE10NE8NE7NE7NE8NE8N9N8
2 days agoCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW6W5NW8N9N12N14N15N12N17N14N16N12
G20
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G20
N9N11
G20
N10

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Bryant Landing, Tensay River, Alabama
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Lower Bryant Landing
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:09 AM CDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:04 AM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:24 AM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:05 PM CDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:38 PM CDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.80.90.910.90.90.80.70.60.60.70.70.70.80.911.1110.90.91

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:05 AM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM CDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM CDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:34 PM CDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
111.11.11.11.11.110.90.80.80.80.80.80.9111.11.11.11111.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.