Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM   Moonset 2:24 PM

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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 926 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 926 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis -
high pressure will remain persistent to the northeast of the local waters through the weekend with weak high pressure ridging overhead. Afternoon sea breeze development will continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure repositions further south, shifting winds toward a southeasterly direction next week. Winds should trend offshore toward the end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 02, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
71 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 85 nautical miles east southeast of saint augustine beach. 92 nautical miles east northeast of jacksonville beach. 86 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 031338 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 938 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 927 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Morning fog has dissipated and the forecast is generally on track.
Just minor tweaks to POPs for later today and tonight, with some showers and a few thunderstorms expected in similar areas as seen yesterday as the sea breeze penetrates inland. Activity is expected to linger over the Suwannee River Valley area and generally spread into interior GA overnight as a shortwave impulse approaches the area. Only marginal elevated instability and weak flow aloft should essentially curtail any strong or severe potential.

NEAR TERM
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Over the next couple of hours the main concern will be localized fog. Dense fog cannot be entirely ruled out but have left it out of the forecast at the moment with generally low confidence (< 10% chance) of visibility lowering less than 1/4 mile. Any fog that does occur should lift and disperse by 9 AM or earlier.

Stagnant pattern remains in place again today, featuring a stubborn surface high and supporting ridging aloft. Overall the low level pattern will stay consistent but an upper shortwave aloft will shove ridging aloft eastward late this evening and overnight. Strong subsidence and dry air should cap much of the convective attempts along the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon. Enhanced moisture entering from the west in combination with an Atlantic/Gulf sea breeze interaction may spark isolated to widely scattered storms well inland, near and likely west of the I-75 corridor.
Instability is still on the marginal side (only progged to be around 800-1200 J/kg), thus updrafts should be fairly weak in nature and severe weather is unlikely.

Tonight, the aforementioned shortwave will slowly propagate across the region resulting in increasing instability with a couple degrees of cooling aloft. This should be supportive of showers overnight mainly north of I-10 and a few elevated t-storms are also feasible through the early morning hours Saturday.

Under influence of ridging aloft another seasonably warm day is on tap this afternoon with inland locations making another push toward 90F while coastal spots are cooled by the onshore flow with readings registering in the mid/upper 80s. Following the warm afternoon, temps will be mild, reading in the mid/upper 60s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)

Showers and storms are expected this weekend as a series of short waves pass over the region with sea-breeze-driven storm developments becoming more widespread with diurnal heating. Mild easterly-southeasterly winds will persist through the period with the Atlantic afternoon sea breeze winds pushing inland. High temperatures for the weekend will reach into the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower 70s for areas along the coast and adjacent to the St Johns River. Patchy fog potential will exist each morning, especially in localized areas where heavy rain occurs with preceding afternoon convection.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Shortwave impulses continue to lift across the region through Monday with shower and storm developments becoming more inhibited as the week progresses due to the increased influence of upper ridging and associated subsidence extending over Florida and Georgia. Amid the stout upper ridge, winds turn offshore and enhance mixing which will boost high temperatures toward record levels as the week progresses; readings are forecast to be in the mid 90s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Brief LIFR CIGS/VSBYS this morning at SSI/CRG/VQQ will become VFR by 13Z, then sea breeze from the East Coast will push inland through the day with SCT Cu field, but likely not enough moisture to support any rain chances higher than 20% at the TAF sites at this time, but will continue to monitor. Band of high clouds will overspread the TAF sites this afternoon above the local Cu field and will continue through tonight with winds becoming light after sunset. Have placed the usual MVFR fog at VQQ after 07Z.

MARINE

High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure repositions further south, shifting winds toward a southeasterly direction next week. Winds should trend offshore toward the end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

Rip Currents: Risk will only increase to a low-end moderate level as the Atlantic sea breeze develops during the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, low surf and light wind will keep risk low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 67 84 65 / 20 30 70 30 SSI 83 70 81 69 / 0 10 30 20 JAX 87 66 86 67 / 0 10 30 20 SGJ 85 67 84 68 / 0 0 20 20 GNV 89 64 89 65 / 10 10 50 20 OCF 90 65 89 66 / 10 0 40 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Bailey Cut
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:10 AM EDT     7.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:14 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:41 PM EDT     7.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bailey Cut, 0.8 mile west of, Satilla River, Georgia, Tide feet

Floyd Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:12 AM EDT     7.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:33 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:43 PM EDT     7.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Floyd Creek, 2.8 miles above entrance, Georgia, Tide feet

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