Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eden, TX
May 2, 2024 4:31 AM CDT (09:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:53 AM Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:31 AM Moonset 1:33 PM |
Area Discussion for - San Angelo, TX
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FXUS64 KSJT 020843 AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 343 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Thunderstorm activity has moved east of the area, with just some isolated showers left in the Brown County, and southern Concho Valley areas. These showers are expected to diminish in the next hour or two.
Southerly flow will reestablish itself in our area through the morning hours. To our north, a cold front will move south toward our region, and the dryline will sharpen up just west of our forecast area. By this afternoon, as temperatures warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s and combine with dewpoint values in the mid to upper 60s, surface based CAPE will increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range again. Deep layer shear is expected to be a bit weaker today, with 0-6km shear values in the 20 to 30 knot range.
With instability values that high, the initial storms will once again be able to quickly strengthen and be capable of producing large to very large hail.
There is some uncertainty on whether or not storms will develop, and if they do, where. CAMs are showing storms developing either along the front north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line, or farther south and west along the dryline near or just west of the Concho Valley. Will have highest PoPs generally east of a Sweetwater to Mason line, but will also have at least some Slight Chance PoPs into the Concho Valley area as well.
Storms could persist into the late evening hours again, especially east of an Abilene to Mason line, with storms expected to end earlier to the west. Temperatures will again be in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs, with lows mainly in the 60s tonight.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Friday could see another round of dryline development. With our area in continued southwest flow aloft and on the fringe of the southern stream jet, guidance is indicating the potential for a shortwave to pass overhead during the afternoon hours. This would likely provide enough upper level support to see development off of a quasi-dryline likely somewhere near our western CWA border.
Southeasterly surface winds through the day will help to moisten the boundary layer across the area leading to MLCAPE values between 2500-3500 J/kg. Shear will be similar to previous days in the 25-35 kt range with mid level lapse rates right around 8 deg C/km. SPC has the Day 2 Marginal ending just north of our area in the Caprock, if guidance continues to trend the way it has with the shortwave passage, would not be surprised if this is extended further south in future updates. The main threats would likely be large hail and damaging winds. Current indications are that these storms would move off to the east fairly quickly with the threat tapering off after midnight.
By Saturday, a frontal boundary is expected to stall just north of our area. Storms will be possible along the front earlier in the day, keeping rain/storm chances in play for northern areas of the Big Country Saturday morning. However, as the boundary layer heats up and destabilizes through the day, more diurnal activity is expected to develop across the area with yet another potential shortwave passing overhead. Later in the day, an easterly low level jet is expected to develop, helping shower and storm activity to become more widespread, potentially developing into an MCS type feature. With ample instability in place and steep lapse rates, some storms could become severe, especially across the Big Country and western Concho Valley where the Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe storms is located. As activity becomes more widespread Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, this looks to be the best timeframe to see heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. As such, WPC has put the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland in their Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall with the rest of the area in Marginal (Level 1 of 4). The highest rainfall totals will likely be in the Big Country, closer to the frontal boundary. With the weak frontal boundary still in the region for Sunday and southwest flow continuing aloft, we will see continued chances for showers and storms through the day before coming to an end overnight into Monday morning. High temperatures through the weekend will generally stay in the upper 70s to 80s.
A large upper trough is expected to move north of our area during the day on Monday. As a dryline pushes east into our area during the day, upper level support may be strong enough to warrant a chance of showers and storms across our northeastern counties between 18-00Z. Better chances will stay well to our north though, closer to the negatively tilted trough axis. Behind the dryline, skies will begin to clear and winds will pick up out of the west.
This dry, downsloping air will help to warm temperatures into the lower 90s for the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau.
Elsewhere should see highs in the mid to upper 80s. The dryline is overall expected to make little retreat to the west overnight and will push even further east on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should keep our area dry and allow for temperatures to reach well above average into the 90s, even the mid and upper 90s for areas south of the I-20 corridor. CPC has our area highlighted in their 8-14 day Slight Risk for Excessive Heat for May 9-11 so unfortunately it looks like the heat will be sticking around through the end of next week.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
TSRA have moved east of all TAF sites late this evening. MVFR ceilings have already begun to move in behind the convection, and will continue to spread north and northwest across all sites in the next few hours. MVFR to, at times, IFR ceilings will continue through the late morning hours, and potentially into the afternoon at KJCT and KBBD. Although there is another chance for isolated to scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon/evening, confidence is low in there being enough coverage to mention in our TAFs at this time.
Winds will be south to southeast at around 10 knots.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 89 62 84 62 / 20 30 30 30 San Angelo 93 63 91 64 / 10 20 30 20 Junction 90 68 92 67 / 10 10 20 20 Brownwood 85 62 84 64 / 20 30 30 30 Sweetwater 91 62 85 63 / 10 20 30 30 Ozona 91 65 88 65 / 0 0 30 20 Brady 86 66 85 66 / 10 20 20 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 343 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Thunderstorm activity has moved east of the area, with just some isolated showers left in the Brown County, and southern Concho Valley areas. These showers are expected to diminish in the next hour or two.
Southerly flow will reestablish itself in our area through the morning hours. To our north, a cold front will move south toward our region, and the dryline will sharpen up just west of our forecast area. By this afternoon, as temperatures warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s and combine with dewpoint values in the mid to upper 60s, surface based CAPE will increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range again. Deep layer shear is expected to be a bit weaker today, with 0-6km shear values in the 20 to 30 knot range.
With instability values that high, the initial storms will once again be able to quickly strengthen and be capable of producing large to very large hail.
There is some uncertainty on whether or not storms will develop, and if they do, where. CAMs are showing storms developing either along the front north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line, or farther south and west along the dryline near or just west of the Concho Valley. Will have highest PoPs generally east of a Sweetwater to Mason line, but will also have at least some Slight Chance PoPs into the Concho Valley area as well.
Storms could persist into the late evening hours again, especially east of an Abilene to Mason line, with storms expected to end earlier to the west. Temperatures will again be in the mid 80s to lower 90s for highs, with lows mainly in the 60s tonight.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Friday could see another round of dryline development. With our area in continued southwest flow aloft and on the fringe of the southern stream jet, guidance is indicating the potential for a shortwave to pass overhead during the afternoon hours. This would likely provide enough upper level support to see development off of a quasi-dryline likely somewhere near our western CWA border.
Southeasterly surface winds through the day will help to moisten the boundary layer across the area leading to MLCAPE values between 2500-3500 J/kg. Shear will be similar to previous days in the 25-35 kt range with mid level lapse rates right around 8 deg C/km. SPC has the Day 2 Marginal ending just north of our area in the Caprock, if guidance continues to trend the way it has with the shortwave passage, would not be surprised if this is extended further south in future updates. The main threats would likely be large hail and damaging winds. Current indications are that these storms would move off to the east fairly quickly with the threat tapering off after midnight.
By Saturday, a frontal boundary is expected to stall just north of our area. Storms will be possible along the front earlier in the day, keeping rain/storm chances in play for northern areas of the Big Country Saturday morning. However, as the boundary layer heats up and destabilizes through the day, more diurnal activity is expected to develop across the area with yet another potential shortwave passing overhead. Later in the day, an easterly low level jet is expected to develop, helping shower and storm activity to become more widespread, potentially developing into an MCS type feature. With ample instability in place and steep lapse rates, some storms could become severe, especially across the Big Country and western Concho Valley where the Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe storms is located. As activity becomes more widespread Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, this looks to be the best timeframe to see heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. As such, WPC has put the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland in their Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall with the rest of the area in Marginal (Level 1 of 4). The highest rainfall totals will likely be in the Big Country, closer to the frontal boundary. With the weak frontal boundary still in the region for Sunday and southwest flow continuing aloft, we will see continued chances for showers and storms through the day before coming to an end overnight into Monday morning. High temperatures through the weekend will generally stay in the upper 70s to 80s.
A large upper trough is expected to move north of our area during the day on Monday. As a dryline pushes east into our area during the day, upper level support may be strong enough to warrant a chance of showers and storms across our northeastern counties between 18-00Z. Better chances will stay well to our north though, closer to the negatively tilted trough axis. Behind the dryline, skies will begin to clear and winds will pick up out of the west.
This dry, downsloping air will help to warm temperatures into the lower 90s for the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau.
Elsewhere should see highs in the mid to upper 80s. The dryline is overall expected to make little retreat to the west overnight and will push even further east on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should keep our area dry and allow for temperatures to reach well above average into the 90s, even the mid and upper 90s for areas south of the I-20 corridor. CPC has our area highlighted in their 8-14 day Slight Risk for Excessive Heat for May 9-11 so unfortunately it looks like the heat will be sticking around through the end of next week.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024
TSRA have moved east of all TAF sites late this evening. MVFR ceilings have already begun to move in behind the convection, and will continue to spread north and northwest across all sites in the next few hours. MVFR to, at times, IFR ceilings will continue through the late morning hours, and potentially into the afternoon at KJCT and KBBD. Although there is another chance for isolated to scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon/evening, confidence is low in there being enough coverage to mention in our TAFs at this time.
Winds will be south to southeast at around 10 knots.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 89 62 84 62 / 20 30 30 30 San Angelo 93 63 91 64 / 10 20 30 20 Junction 90 68 92 67 / 10 10 20 20 Brownwood 85 62 84 64 / 20 30 30 30 Sweetwater 91 62 85 63 / 10 20 30 30 Ozona 91 65 88 65 / 0 0 30 20 Brady 86 66 85 66 / 10 20 20 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
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San Angelo, TX,
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