Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 5:48 PM   Moonset 3:59 AM

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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 315 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Today - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 2 feet at 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 315 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis -
northeasterly flow will decrease some today and Wednesday with high pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high shifts well E of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday, winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through Saturday.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 18, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 211131 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 731 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Onshore flow pattern continues Today, which could lead to a few coastal showers moving inland during the late morning and afternoon hours. High temperatures Today are expected to be around 80 coast, lower-mid 80s inland, possibly upper 80s Marion Co.

For Tonight...expecting mostly clear skies with low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s well inland...around 70 coast.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Ridging aloft will be over the Carolinas on Wednesday as a weak cutoff trough east of the waters exits further eastward into the western Atlantic. This pattern will support surface high pressure along the Carolina coast Wednesday with light easterly winds and dry conditions due to subsidence and highs near normal in the low to mid 80s and warmer inland into the upper 80s to near 90.

Wednesday night, skies will be mostly clear with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland and around 70 along the coast. Patchy fog will develop inland as low level moisture moisture increases.

Thursday, surface high pressure will shift south into the waters off the southeast coast and extend a surface ridge axis westward through SE GA and into the FL panhandle with more southeasterly light steering flow that will bring the Atlantic seabreeze well inland. Subsidence will again prevent any mention of Pops despite stronger heating as a mid/upper level ridging from the southwest Gulf of Mexico builds northeastward into the area which will help raise high temperatures into the low 90s away from the coast with the Atlantic seabreeze cooling the coast into the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mid/upper level ridge will extend from the Gulf of Mexico NE into the FL peninsula and create hot conditions into this weekend as the low level ridge axis sinks south into central FL Friday and then to south FL over the weekend. Friday should be dry due to the influence of the low level ridge just south of the area with isolated to widely scattered T'storms developing this weekend as a few shortwaves impulses travel eastward around the northern periphery of the Gulf ridge. The Atlantic seabreeze will remain east of I-95 as low level steering flow becomes more southwesterly and allow highs to reach the mid 90s east of highway 301 and low 90s at the beaches. Heat index values will climb to around 100 degrees as rising dewpoints mix out only to the upper 60s to near 70 in the afternoon hours Saturday and Sunday.

A more organized shortwave will race east across the deep south next Monday ahead of a deepening trough over the central US.
Better southwest flow aloft will bump up moisture levels to above normal 1.4-1.6 inches with scattered T'storm coverage in place.
Highs next Monday will again be in the mid 90s east of highway 301 with heat index values rising a bit into the 100-104 degrees from the coast to the St Johns river basin and north central FL.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

MVFR CIGS already pushing onshore to the Atlantic Coast ahead of trough over the coastal waters and will bring VCSH to all sites through the morning hours with a slight increase in NE winds to 10-13G15-21 knots through the afternoon hours. CIGS will likely lift upwards to VFR at inland TAF sites but remain close to 3000 ft at the coastal TAF sites through the afternoon. Rainfall chances still too low to include any TEMPO groups at this time but may be needed at SGJ as any heavier showers approach. Shower activity and clouds fade quickly around sunset (00Z) along with diminishing winds and expect VFR conds through the evening hours.
With winds becoming calm at inland sites overnight expect at least some MVFR fog likely at VQQ and possible at GNV/JAX towards sunrise late in the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Northeasterly flow will decrease some Today and Wednesday with high pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high shifts well E of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday, winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through Saturday.

.Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 62 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 80 70 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 83 67 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 83 70 85 69 / 20 0 0 0 GNV 86 65 90 67 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 88 67 91 68 / 20 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Frederica River
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:24 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:04 AM EDT     6.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     7.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Frederica River, Georgia, Tide feet

Jones Creek entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:19 AM EDT     6.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:37 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:48 PM EDT     7.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia, Tide feet

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