Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 2:49 AM   Moonset 1:49 PM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 625 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots late this morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Friday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 625 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected through early next week on the southwest periphery of a surface high dominating the southeast united states.

FXUS64 KJAN 021153 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 653 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Today and Tonight: Continued warmer than normal through tonight despite an increase in cloud over and rain chances.

Early morning surface analysis still had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the east. This was resulting in a southeast to south wind that was continuing to increase low level moisture back across our region. This moisture increase has led to the development of patchy dense fog and stratus across our southeast that is expected to increase in coverage across our south this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9AM for the area along and south of a line from Laurel to Brookhaven where visibilities less than a quarter mile are likely. Regional radars were already lit up this morning with an area of convection over east Texas. A split flow regime will continue with the southern branch across the Gulf coast states. A disturbance within the southern branch will help drive this convection east today into our CWA Model consensus suggests the convection will develop into a bowing line as it moves into our CWA during the heat of the day. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts but hail to quarter size and a brief tornado our two will also be possible. Although isolated severe storms will be possible as far north as Cleveland the main area looks to be along and south of Interstate 20 and mainly during the afternoon into early evening.
Locally heavy rainfall may also lead to some runoff issues in the typically poor drainage areas. The severe storm threat will end early this evening but rain chances will continue through the night as a cold front approaches from the northwest. /22/

Friday through next Thursday...

By Friday morning, rain chances look to stick around as a weak shortwave allows a boundary to hang up across central MS just north of a high pressure in the off of the MS coast. This will keep higher rain chances in the forecast through late Friday afternoon.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across central and northern Mississippi on Friday. Rain chances are expected to decrease by the late evening into the overnight period. By the weekend, low level southerly flow paired with a series of week shortwaves moving through the region will keep scattered to isolated rain chances in the forecast through Monday. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 80s through the weekend.

By Monday, surface ridging will amplify over the southeast CONUS, bringing drier and warmer air into the ArkLaMiss. Southwest flow will keep the moisture at bay going into the new work week.
Additionally, increasing heights will bring our first dose of summer- like temperatures into the region. Highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s by mid-week. The next chance of rain looks to be north of the hwy 82 corridor by late week, but guidance is a bit uncertain on specifics as of now. /AJ/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

IFR/LIFR conditions wl prevail cntrl and south until after 14Z.
By 15Z conditions wl improve to VFR and VFR conditions wl prevail through 18Z. After 18Z TSRA are expected to spread into the sw and affect HEZ. This activity will spread into cntrl and se MS TAF sites by 00Z Fri before dissipating. VFR conditions are expected this evening but IFR/LIFR cigs are expected to develop at most TAF sites by 08Z and continue through the end of the TAF period.
/22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 85 68 80 64 / 50 50 70 30 Meridian 88 66 84 64 / 10 30 50 40 Vicksburg 83 68 79 65 / 60 50 70 30 Hattiesburg 88 67 84 65 / 30 20 30 20 Natchez 82 67 78 64 / 70 40 70 20 Greenville 84 69 78 66 / 40 80 80 40 Greenwood 87 68 79 65 / 30 70 80 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ048>050- 054>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.

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