Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Hattiesburg, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:15PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 6:34 PM CDT (23:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:23AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound-lake Borgne- 408 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 408 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the eastern gulf through tomorrow. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact the waters on Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back over the area by Friday. The high should be east of the area by Saturday. Another low pressure system should then impact the coastal waters on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Hattiesburg, MS
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location: 31.29, -89.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 282135
afdjan
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ms
435 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Severe weather expected Wednesday night and Thursday...

Discussion
Tonight and Wednesday: relatively quiet conditions will continue
over the next 24 hours as a shortwave upper ridge axis moves across
the region. This feature helped limit shower activity through the
day, which was driven almost exclusively by low level moisture and
diurnal instability. Late overnight into tomorrow morning, we'll see
a resurgence of low stratus (and perhaps some spots of fog in the
southern portion of the area). However, clouds should begin to break
out late morning into the afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the
next approaching storm system and anomalous upper heights will make
way for another warm day on Wednesday. Rain chances are expected to
be even more limited than today due to a midlevel dry slot moving
across the region. /dl/
Wednesday night through early next week...

an active period of weather will continue to exist through the
ongoing late march/early april time frame. Based on severe
weather climo, this falls in line with what usually our most
active period of the year.

The first threat of severe weather will exist late Wednesday night
and through the day on Thursday as a deep upper low crosses the
southern plains and begins to approach our region. Mid-level
impulses translating around the closed low will serve as focuses
of storm initiation over the la-tex region Wednesday evening,
pushing closer to our region on Wednesday night before moving into
the western portions of the arklamiss soon after midnight. Models
have come into better agreement with the time of the progression
of this first wave, which led to the removal of pops before
midnight. SBCAPE values in excess of 1000 j/kg, 0-6km lapse rates
greater than 6 c/km, and 0-6 km bulk shear around 60kts suggest
all modes of severe weather will be possible.

A more complex, but still significant, threat of severe weather
will continue through the day on Thursday as the system progresses
through the region. Energy associated with the subtropical jet
will begin to increase along the base of the upper low before
beginning to split off as the upper low/polar jet begins to
slowly lift northward. This could lead to several different
solutions for our region. An MCS is expected to develop along and
near the gulf coast and could extend into the southern portions of
the arklamiss. If this scenario plays out, it could disrupt low
level flow into the other portions of our region, while also
leaving a stabilized airmass in its wake. This could limit our
severe potential with the second round of storms that could form
along the surface front as it finally pushes through the region.

However, several models offer differing solutions, such as the
atmosphere over the region having time to recover after the mcs
progresses out of our region and ahead of the frontal passage.

This solution gives us the best chance to see two substantial
rounds of severe weather. Drier air will begin to filter into the
region behind the front and rain chances will decrease from west
to east Thursday night.

Upper level heights will begin to increase on Friday with a ridge
becoming centered over the region this weekend. This will result
in above average temperatures and dry conditions.

Storm chances will increase again early next week as a potent
upper level low crosses texas. Ahead of this system, a strong low
level jet will pull a considerable amount of moisture and
instability into the region from the gulf. Rain and storm chances
will begin to increase on Sunday night. Pwats could increase to
above 2 inches as moisture continues to increase ahead of a
frontal passage. Early indications suggest a risk of flash
flooding and severe weather throughout most of the region. /jpm3/

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
ceilings have improved toVFR thresholds across most of the area
this afternoon. Isolated shra will be possible through the
afternoon hours, but confidence is too low to mention prevailing
ra or vcsh at any one site.VFR conditions will continue into the
early portion of the evening. Overnight, ceilings will begin to
deteriorate again, with MVFR to ifr conditions expected to develop
at most sites after midnight or during the early morning wed.

Visibility may be reduced in some areas, but lower ceilings are
expected to be the predominant limiting factor. Conditions will
steadily improve during the mid to late morning hours Wednesday,
with some areas returning toVFR before midday and all areas
expected to recover to at least MVFR conditions by midday. /dl/

Preliminary point temps/pops
Jackson 63 86 65 77 / 6 6 27 72
meridian 62 85 63 78 / 6 5 10 67
vicksburg 64 85 66 78 / 8 9 57 68
hattiesburg 63 84 64 78 / 4 5 11 67
natchez 65 84 67 76 / 7 10 54 71
greenville 63 82 65 77 / 15 8 75 67
greenwood 64 84 65 76 / 16 5 56 73

Jan watches/warnings/advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Jpm3/dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 65 mi45 min S 7.8 G 12 78°F 1014.7 hPa (-0.7)68°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 67 mi47 min S 8.9 G 14 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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G15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS14 mi42 minS 910.00 miFair83°F62°F49%1012.9 hPa
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS16 mi40 minSSW 310.00 miFair81°F60°F51%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from HBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S11S8S8S7S6S4SW5SW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalm5S7SW4SW6S5S4SW9S5S8S9
1 day agoS8S6S6S9S7S10S9S6S5S6CalmE3CalmE4SE5S12
G18
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2 days agoSE4S4CalmCalmE6CalmCalmSE3SE4E3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm4S7SW7SW10SW8SW6S8S10S11

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Creek, Bernard Bayou, Mississippi
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Turkey Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:41 AM CDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:47 AM CDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:45 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:10 PM CDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
111.11.110.90.80.80.80.80.80.90.9110.90.80.70.50.40.40.40.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wolf River, Henderson Avenue bridge, Mississippi
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Wolf River
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:36 AM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:11 AM CDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:40 PM CDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:34 PM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.9110.90.80.80.70.70.70.70.80.80.80.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.30.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.