Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM   Moonset 12:40 PM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 256 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet this evening, then 1 foot or less. Patchy fog after midnight. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Patchy fog in the morning. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.

GMZ500 256 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
persistent southeast flow of around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected through early next week on the southwest periphery of a surface high dominating the southeast united states.

FXUS64 KJAN 012014 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 314 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Tonight into Tomorrow:

The forecast remains tricky to nail down details even in the short- term, because so much of what may happen in our forecast area will depend on the mesoscale developments upstream to our west in Texas and Oklahoma. No weather is expected the rest of this afternoon, but building humidity and returning low-level flow tonight may bring a better chance for fog to develop in southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early tomorrow morning. HRRR probabilities of dense fog in the Pine Belt reach about 30-50% by sunrise, which combined with the clear skies and southerly flow are usually indicative of some dense fog developing in those areas. Have added a Limited threat fog graphic for tonight and will monitor trends for any widespread dense fog potential.

Then as mentioned, systems to our west will become a concern as we near daybreak tomorrow. A southern stream shortwave trough lifting across East Texas/western Louisiana tonight has been the focus of recent model runs for generating a complex of storms that direction.
Latest HRRR and other high-res model guidance indicate an MCS or broken line of storms moving into central LA by mid morning, and possibly another focused area of storm development farther southwest along the line scraping the Gulf Coast later in the morning into afternoon. Regardless of exactly how it evolves, convection moving east overnight will have favorable westerly flow and an instability axis to propagate eastward along, so it seems reasonable that organized strong to severe storms could move into our forecast area tomorrow between mid morning and early afternoon time frame. A bowing line could produce damaging winds, and a tornado could not be ruled out. Therefore a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been added for northeast LA, southeast AR, and Mississippi from roughly the Greenville/Cleveland areas southeast toward Hattiesburg.
Showers and thunderstorms in general will be possible across the forecast area by the afternoon and evening, though organized severe weather is questionable by that time frame.

Friday through Wednesday:

Details remain tricky for the extended, but big picture forecast is still for several shortwave disturbances moving east across the country to trigger rounds of showers and thunderstorms into early next week. Especially of interest in our area will be the fact that waves will nudge a cold frontal boundary south toward the area, and disturbances are likely to interact with the moist, unstable air mass south of this front. Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and even Monday have some chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast area as it stands now. Where it is not raining, afternoon temperatures will push the upper 80s to lower 90s. /NF/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the area this afternoon and will continue into tonight. Early Thursday morning, areas of IFR to MVFR stratus will develop across parts of south MS and central LA, with patchy fog also possible in south MS. Any fog is expected to diminish by mid-morning, with ceilings rising back to VFR levels.
By late morning to afternoon, SHRA and TS are expected to spread east across LA and AR then into western MS. Locally heavy downpours may temporarily limit visibilities and ceilings may fall to MVFR levels in some areas. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 63 84 66 78 / 0 40 50 70 Meridian 61 87 66 83 / 0 10 30 50 Vicksburg 62 82 67 79 / 0 70 50 80 Hattiesburg 63 87 68 82 / 0 20 20 30 Natchez 63 81 66 77 / 0 70 40 70 Greenville 65 83 68 78 / 0 60 80 80 Greenwood 64 85 67 79 / 0 40 70 80

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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