Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Hattiesburg, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:31PM Saturday April 21, 2018 6:09 PM CDT (23:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:13AMMoonset 12:31AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 350 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 21 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 350 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 21 2018
Synopsis..An area of low pressure will pass north of the coastal waters this weekend. A cold front trailing this low pressure system will move through the region Sunday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in by Monday and remain in place through the middle of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Hattiesburg, MS
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location: 31.29, -89.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 212113
afdjan
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ms
413 pm cdt Sat apr 21 2018

Discussion
Tonight and Sunday:
a relatively compact but potent cutoff upper low currently
situated over ks ok will be the primary feature of interest for
sensible weather impacts in our region over the next 24 hours.

Warm moist southerly flow is already underway ahead of this system
this afternoon, with clouds beginning to increase from the west.

Radar has already picked up on higher level echoes through the
day, but conditions have remained too dry at the surface for
measurable rain thus far. However, the low levels will continue to
steadily moisten overnight as advection increases ahead of the
surface low tracking across the arklatex. A weak warm frontal
feature will lift northward during the overnight hours into early
Sunday morning, with measurable rain beginning to spread over the
western half of the area before daybreak (lighter showers possible
over the eastern half as well). Along with conditions being
warmer overnight, it will also be quite breezy as the surface
pressure gradient tightens between the approaching system and a
lingering ridge lingering along the atlantic coast.

Most cam guidance is picking up on considerable convection spreading
through the eastern half of the area from around daybreak Sunday
through the morning hours well ahead of the cold front at a time
when instability remains fairly marginal (in spite of increasing
deep layer shear). Synoptic models show varying levels of agreement
with this evolution. The strongest low level helicity is forecast to
accompany this morning activity, though again at a time when
instability is more questionable and the href suggests the
likelihood of deeper updrafts to be low. While we couldn't entirely
rule out some wind damage threat in this time frame, it appears
greater potential will hold off until later in the day.

It seems plausible that in at least some portion of the area the
atmosphere will struggle to sufficiently recover from morning
convection for redevelopment to occur into the afternoon. However,
some of the available cam models (along the 12z euro and nam) do
show redevelopment around midday near the us 49 to i-55 corridor,
spreading north and eastward through the early evening. With around
50 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and the respectable instability and lapse
rate, damaging winds and marginally severe hail would be possible
with these storms. With the stronger low level helicity pulling out
of the area and most guidance showing 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes
<30 kt, the tornado threat doesn't look as high, but a tornado or
two would still be possible. In additional, high res guidance is
depicting a few QPF streaks of up to around 4", so we cannot rule
out flash flooding. I'm not particularly concerned about the
flooding threat, but as there is limited potential and we are
already advertising this in the hwo graphics, I certainly don't have
enough confidence to pull it out. Dl
Sunday night into next weekend:
the forecast pattern looks rather unsettled over the lower ms
valley through the long term period, although the lack of
considerable moisture, warmth, and instability should keep the
risk of severe weather and flooding quite low. The main issue is
trying to time impact of disturbances on the region and model
consensus is not very good in that regard, especially toward the
end of the coming work week. With at least a few frontal passages
likely and a suppressed southern branch of jet stream (at least
east of the rockies) temperatures should continue to be held at
least a bit below normal, in general.

The first disturbance to deal with will be bringing showers and
storms to the region in the short term, but the significant
activity should be advancing east of the region during the early
to mid evening hours Sunday, of course taking longest to exit in
eastern ms. A weak cold front will push through and try to clear
out conditions a bit, but expect lighter showers wrapping around
the backside of the slowly-departing upper level low to affect at
least northern zones late in the night. These showers should
continue in at least isolated to scattered fashion along and north
of the i-20 corridor on Monday with clouds and precip holding
highs down below 70 degrees in many locations. The disturbance and
the moisture wrapping around it may actually be so slow to depart
that isolated showers and abundant clouds could continue through
Tuesday, especially in eastern zones, with daytime temperatures
struggling to reach 70 degrees in some cases.

By Tuesday night and into Wednesday the upper low to the east will
be moving away quickly, finally, but another clipper-type
disturbance should be quickly dropping our way and spreading
clouds back in from the west. Model consensus is not great with
timing or intensity of precipitation associated with this
disturbance so lower-end rain chances (with relatively minimal
chances for storms) spread from Wednesday through Thursday. Once
timing consensus improves chances of rain in our forecast will
probably increase, but will be more confined to a 12 hour period.

The final expected disturbance and associated front should come
in toward Friday or Saturday, but timing consensus on this is even
worse than the midweek system. Fortunately, at this time this
system does not look extremely potent so hopefully another
weekend's outdoor activities will not be put in jeopardy by
persistent bad weather. Bb

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
vfr conditions prevail across the region this afternoon, but as a
storm system approaches the area tonight, conditions will begin to
deteriorate with ceilings lowering to MVFR and in some areas ifr
range through the remainder of the TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase early Sunday morning through the
daytime hours, leading to occasional visibility reductions as
well. Southerly winds will be gusty at times especially across
east ms, with some gusts over 25 kt possible beginning overnight.

Dl

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 63 72 54 68 67 100 22 17
meridian 62 71 54 70 62 100 53 17
vicksburg 63 73 53 68 100 100 11 19
hattiesburg 64 73 55 72 45 100 31 7
natchez 63 73 52 69 100 100 8 12
greenville 62 70 55 66 100 100 25 29
greenwood 62 70 56 65 77 97 40 32

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Dl bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 67 mi58 min ESE 15 G 18 69°F 68°F1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS14 mi77 minS 610.00 miOvercast75°F59°F58%1018.7 hPa
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS16 mi74 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F57°F57%1019 hPa

Wind History from HBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE8E6E7S9
G15
--SE6SE10SE11S6SE7
1 day agoN7N6N7N9N8N4N4N4N5N5N4N3N4NE6NE6E6E5NE63NE7NE9NE83E8
2 days agoSW5SW4SW5S4SW5SW5W5W6W5W4W4NW3NW5N10N12
G17
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NW8NW8N11N8

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Creek, Bernard Bayou, Mississippi
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Turkey Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:58 AM CDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:01 PM CDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.20.50.711.31.61.82.12.22.32.42.32.21.91.61.30.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wolf River, Henderson Avenue bridge, Mississippi
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Wolf River
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:22 AM CDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:14 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:56 PM CDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.40.60.91.11.41.61.8222.121.91.71.51.20.80.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.