Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 5:53 AM   Moonset 8:25 PM

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PMZ017 Northern Gulf Of California- 841 Pm Pdt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 5 seconds. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to W to nw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds.Wed night - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds. Thu - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 3 seconds. Fri - Variable winds less than 5 kt N of 30n, and W to nw 10 kt elsewhere. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 3 seconds. Fri night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 1 second. Sat - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 2 seconds. Sat night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 1 second.Sun - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 1 second. Sun night - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 1 second.

FXUS65 KTWC 072043 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 143 PM MST Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue this week. Locally windy conditions will be likely Wednesday, especially east of Tucson.
High temperatures will be near normal for much of this week, then several degrees above normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Generally quasi-zonal flow should be maintained through this weekend, with a persistent upper level jet present over southern Arizona through the second half of the week.

This upper level jet and an associated pressure gradient will produce breezy to locally windy conditions each day. This will especially be true tomorrow, where sustained winds east of Tucson and closer to the New Mexico border should range from 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. The forecast problem for tomorrow is this wind's impact on fire weather conditions, mostly for Graham, southern Greenlee, and Cochise counties. Various MOS points and model cores are in fair agreement with keeping sustained winds just shy of critical fire weather levels, while the 12Z HRRR probability of meeting criteria struggles to exceed 60% over a significant portion of space and time. Messaging with this forecast package will continue to highlight near critical fire weather conditions for tomorrow but a headline won't be needed at this time.

With no major deviations in the mean upper level flow, temperatures should remain fairly consistent over the next several days, though with a slight uptick on Friday through the weekend.
This will be due to a passing wave to our north, which otherwise looks to provide little impact to southeastern Arizona.

Looking at next week, ensemble 500mb heights are in relatively good agreement across model cores in building a ridge across the western to central CONUS by the end of the week. This plays out in the NBM high temperature probabilities with even the colder 25th percentiles increasing above climatological normals next Wednesday onwards. CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook also leans above normal starting the middle of next week.

AVIATION
Valid through 09/00Z.
SKC thru the valid forecast period. This afternoon SFC winds WSWLY thru NWLY at 12-20 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts. SFC diminish to less than 12 kts after 08/04Z. Tomorrow SFC winds SW thru WNWLY after 08/17Z with speeds between 14-22 kts and occasional gusts to around 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will near be normal through Friday. Highs then climb to 2-4 degrees above normal this weekend.
This week min RHs values will be in the single digits to lower teens in the valleys, with values generally in the teens for the mountains.

Breezy afternoon/early evening winds will persist through Wednesday, especially to the east of Tucson. Winds diminish Thursday into the weekend, although typical May afternoon gustiness can be expected.
Wind speeds Wednesday will again be near critical levels for a couple of hours during the mid to late afternoon across portions of Cochise, Graham, and southern Greenlee counties. Additionally, minimum relative humidities will be in the 9 to 13 percent range.
However at this time, the duration and geographical area/extent of critical wind speeds do not warrant RFW headlines.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Puerto Penasco
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Wed -- 01:37 AM MST     4.56 meters High Tide
Wed -- 05:42 AM MST     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM MST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:46 AM MST     -1.34 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 02:21 PM MST     5.37 meters High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 PM MST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:24 PM MST     0.09 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM MST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

Puerto Penasco
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:37 AM MST     4.52 meters High Tide
Wed -- 05:42 AM MST     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:53 AM MST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM MST     -1.22 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 02:20 PM MST     5.36 meters High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 PM MST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:25 PM MST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:28 PM MST     0.11 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico (3), Tide feet

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