Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:20 PM Moonrise 2:27 AM   Moonset 1:29 PM

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PMZ017 Northern Gulf Of California- 217 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds. Tonight - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds. Fri - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds.Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 3 seconds.Sat night - S to sw winds 20 to 25 kt N of 30n, and S to sw 10 to 15 kt elsewhere. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds. Sun - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds. Sun night - SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds. Mon - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds. Mon night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds.

FXUS65 KTWC 020942 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 242 AM MST Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Sunny, warm, and dry this week with breezy afternoons on most days. A dry weather system will bring stronger breezes on Sunday.

DISCUSSION
In the short term, the pattern will be mostly westerly flow to keep temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s with typical afternoon breezes from surface heating and terrain interaction. These conditions will continue through Saturday.

The change of weather will be from weather system moving through region later in the weekend. The ensemble models have been consistent on the timing of the trough coming from the Northwest Pacific coast which is projected to pass over Southeast Arizona on Sunday. The ensembles have been getting a better agreement on the placement of the trough. The 500mb low pressure center will generally over Nevada by Sunday morning and this will create a tighter pressure gradient over Southeast Arizona. Even, the GFS 700mb wind field will have 30 to 40 knots and likely giving a little more lean in the NBM guidance. The latest NBM has a 45 percent of exceeding 35 mph or higher for majority of the region with stronger gusts in the exposed areas and in higher elevations. Temperatures will stay up in the upper 80s to lower 90s with the minimum relative humidity in the single digits for the valleys and in the upper teens to lower twenties in the mountains. With that, the warm temperatures and the low humidities are more of a slam dunk in confidence levels, whereas the wind confidence has started to grow a little more since the last forecast package. The trifecta of the warm temperatures, low humidities, and the wind can lead to near critical to critical fire weather concerns on Sunday afternoon. Stay tune for the updates on the wind speeds and gusts as we get closer to Sunday.

After Sunday, high temperatures will drop 3 to 5 degrees on Monday and then return to the same tune as before, the upper 80s to lower 90s with the typical afternoon breezes for the most of the new week. A few ensembles hint at another similar pattern change later in the week.

AVIATION
Valid through 03/12Z.
SKC throughout the forecast period. SFC winds this morning are light and variable through 02/20Z and returning again after 03/02Z. During daylight hours, winds will generally be southwesterly to westerly at 10 to 15 knots with the occasional gust of 20 knots in the late afternoon. Wind speeds less than 15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures remain above normal throughout the rest of the week. 20-ft winds will generally be less than 15 mph through Saturday. Min RHs in the valleys continue to be in the single digits to the low teens for the lower valleys with values in the teens to the lower twenties for the mountains. A dry weather system will be passing on Sunday to bring dry and breezy to locally windy conditions in the afternoon. The dry, windy, and warm conditions will put areas Sells eastward near critical to critical fire weather concerns on Sunday afternoon. After Sunday and through the new week, winds will return to the typical afternoon breezes of 10 to 15 mph.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Puerto Penasco
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:27 AM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:25 AM MST     1.17 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM MST     2.63 meters High Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:52 PM MST     0.69 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM MST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:32 PM MST     3.85 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico (2), Tide feet

Puerto Penasco
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:27 AM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:14 AM MST     1.16 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM MST     2.85 meters High Tide
Thu -- 01:29 PM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:54 PM MST     0.71 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM MST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:29 PM MST     4.05 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico (3), Tide feet

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